Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [7] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about aluminum prices, projecting them to rise to 22,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025 due to tight supply and low inventory levels [4][54] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain resilient, particularly in the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, leading to an upward revision of the domestic aluminum consumption growth rate to 2.6% for 2025 [2][39] Demand Summary - The pessimistic outlook for aluminum demand has reversed, with a projected 4.9% increase in aluminum demand from the photovoltaic sector in the second half of 2025, contributing to an annual growth rate of 7.1% [2][13] - The automotive sector shows resilience supported by the vehicle replacement policy, with a 12.01% year-on-year increase in domestic car sales from January to July 2025 [17][19] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on aluminum demand is expected to diminish, with a minor decrease in imports and stable domestic consumption levels [23][24] Supply Summary - Domestic aluminum production growth has significantly slowed, with a projected annual growth rate of only 1.55% for 2025 due to capacity constraints [3][42] - The aluminum ingot import window is unlikely to open significantly, as the import loss calculation indicates a negative margin for imports [3][42] Price Summary - Low inventory levels are expected to support higher aluminum prices, with projections indicating a decline in social inventory to below 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [4][54] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the undervaluation of the aluminum sector, with average profits expected to rise to over 4,500 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5][61] - Recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Ltd. and Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd., both rated as "Buy" with target prices of 24.09 CNY and 22.66 CNY respectively [9][67]

证券研究报告 基础材料 供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 09 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十周） 本周观点：供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 上周美国公布 2 月非农就业人数 15.1 万人，略低于市场预期，失业率 4.1% 环比上升，美国经济边际走弱趋势显现，金价上周企稳回升，基本金属偏强 震荡。基本金属方面，当前绝对价格偏高下，铜、铝消费依旧偏强，国内社 库均转向去库，基本面乐观情况下，预计短期依旧偏强震荡。贵金属方面， 美国经济边际走弱趋势凸显，美联储 25 年降息空间或上升，预计金价短期 震荡偏强。锂方面，根据 SMM 周度库存样本数据，国内库存数据累库，预 期三月下游需求环比恢复或偏弱，我们认为碳酸锂价格或偏弱震荡。 重点公司及动态 1）铜价高位，推荐低估值行业龙头紫金矿业；2）铝加工板块利润受此前 出口退税取消政策影响逐步消除，推荐低估值明泰铝业 子行业观点 1）基本金属：国内库存转向去化，基本金属或偏强震荡；2）贵金属：美 国经济边际走弱，金价或短期偏强震荡；3）稀土：供给端约束预期加强， 稀土价格或偏强震荡；4）锂：上周累库幅度较多，短期预计碳酸锂价格或 偏弱震荡。 ...