证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 大幅高于季节性 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评 频率：每月 事件：12 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.1，环比提高 0.9；服务业 PMI 录得 49.7，环 比提升 0.2。建筑业 PMI 录得 52.8，环比提升 3.2。综合 PMI 产出指数录得 50.7，环比提升 1.0。 点评报告 ❑ 12 月制造业、建筑业 PMI 大幅回升至荣枯线上方，制造业基本回升至近年历 史同期水平，但环比涨幅远超季节性水平、且属于逆季节性上涨；建筑业修 复节奏与 24 年同步，而服务消费继续低位运行。 ❑ 1）制造业，12 月制造业 PMI 低位回升 0.9 至 50.1，且大部分分项指数较上 月回升，表明 12 月制造业供需两端明显改善。事实上，12 月环比涨幅远超季 节性水平，高达 0.9 个百分点，而近 10 年同期环比表现仅有-0.26 个百分点。 一是，Q4 初推出的"两个 5000 亿"稳增长政策，基本均在 10 月末投放完 毕，在年底对基建投资和制造业投资形成一定拉动。二是，大量企业制定新年 规划进入细化与落实阶段，以及春节备货重要节 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]