来源：兴证策略 拥挤度是兴证策略团队独家构建的反映热门赛道交易情绪的重要指标，由量能、价格、资金、分析师预测四大维度、七大指标合成而来，量化跟踪市场情 绪变化，对于股价短期走势有较强指示意义。 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/29-2025/12/31 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/5-2025/12/31 整体来看， 前期市场呈现由部分主题引领上涨的格局，赚钱效应集中在少数板块，因此当前虽然部分主题驱动的板块拥挤度已至高位，而大多数板块拥 挤度仍在中等或偏低水平，仍有较多机会可挖。 一、TMT 1、光模块：拥挤度中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2、服务器：拥挤度水平中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3、基站：拥挤度水平中等偏高 4、光纤光缆：拥挤度水平较高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 5、IDC：拥挤度水平中等 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 6、计算机设备：拥挤度水平中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "crowding degree" as an important indicator reflecting trading sentiment in popular sectors, constructed by combining four dimensions: volume, price, funds, and analyst forecasts, which quantitatively track market sentiment changes and have strong indicative significance for short-term stock price trends [1]. TMT Sector - Optical modules: Crowding degree is moderately high [6] - Servers: Crowding degree is moderately high [9] - Base stations: Crowding degree is moderately high [11] - Optical fiber and cables: Crowding degree is moderately high [12] - IDC: Crowding degree is moderate [12] - Computer equipment: Crowding degree is moderately low [15] - Optical components: Crowding degree is moderately high [15] - RF components: Crowding degree is moderately high [19] - PCB: Crowding degree is moderate [20] - State-owned cloud: Crowding degree is moderately low [23] - IT services: Crowding degree is low [23] - Financial IT: Crowding degree is low [26] - Internet of Things: Crowding degree is moderate [26] - Semiconductor equipment: Crowding degree is high [30] - Semiconductor materials: Crowding degree is moderately high [31] - Semiconductor packaging and testing: Crowding degree is high [33] - Semiconductor design: Crowding degree is moderately high [33] - Semiconductor manufacturing: Crowding degree is moderately high [37] - Semiconductor discrete devices: Crowding degree is moderately high [37] - Memory: Crowding degree is high [42] - Consumer electronics: Crowding degree is moderately high [44] - Smart driving: Crowding degree is moderate [44] - Gaming: Crowding degree is moderately low [48] - Digital media: Crowding degree is moderately low [50] - Operators: Crowding degree is low [52] Manufacturing Sector - Auto parts: Crowding degree is moderately high [55] - Passenger cars: Crowding degree is moderately high [57] - Lithium batteries: Crowding degree is moderately high [59] - Hydrogen energy: Crowding degree is moderately high [59] - Energy storage: Crowding degree is moderately high [62] - Wind power: Crowding degree is moderately high [62] - Smart grid: Crowding degree is moderately high [65] - Photovoltaic inverters: Crowding degree is moderately high [65] - Photovoltaic cells: Crowding degree is moderately high [69] - Photovoltaic modules: Crowding degree is moderate [69] - Silicon materials and wafers: Crowding degree is moderately high [73] - Industrial robots: Crowding degree is moderately high [73] - Shipbuilding: Crowding degree is low [77] - Drones: Crowding degree is moderately low [77] - Aircraft engines: Crowding degree is low [82] Consumer and Pharmaceutical Sector - White goods: Crowding degree is moderately low [83] - Baijiu: Crowding degree is low [86] - Textiles and apparel: Crowding degree is moderate [88] - Hotel and catering: Crowding degree is moderate [90] - Tourism and scenic spots: Crowding degree is moderately high [90] - Air transport: Crowding degree is moderately high [94] - Pig industry: Crowding degree is moderate [94] - Innovative drugs: Crowding degree is low [97] - Traditional Chinese medicine: Crowding degree is low [99] - Medical services: Crowding degree is low [101] Financial and Real Estate Sector - Real estate: Crowding degree is moderately high [51] - Banking: Crowding degree is low [105] - Insurance: Crowding degree is low [105] - Securities: Crowding degree is moderately low [105] Cyclical Sector - Coal: Crowding degree is high [55] - Steel: Crowding degree is low [111] - Oil and petrochemicals: Crowding degree is moderately low [112] - Thermal power: Crowding degree is moderately low [113] - Industrial metals: Crowding degree is moderate [113] - Chemical raw materials: Crowding degree is moderately low [118]