导语 石油和化工行业景气指数由中国石油和化学工业联合会与山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合编制，是 石油化工行业的微观景气循环监控指标，包括"石油和天然气开采业景气指数""燃料加工业景气指 数""化学原料和化学制品制造业景气指数""橡胶、塑料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数"4个分指数。 石油和化工行业景气指数的景气指标选择以度量行业的潜在产出和经济效益为标准，包括生产类微观数 据和行业效益类数据，生产类微观数据包括：产能利用率、产品盈利能力、产成品库存水平。基础数据 来源于与千余家企业建立的定期调研评估结果。 核心摘要 ●终端需求下滑，景气指数回落 2025年11月，石油和化工行业景气指数为97.21，环比下降2.58个百分点，结束了连续两个月的回升。行 业运行的核心逻辑发生变化，前期"需求改善"与"成本红利"的双重驱动减弱，季节性需求转弱成为全行 业的主基调。与此同时，持续的低油价对行业上下游产生了显著的分化效应：对上游的油气开采业形成 价格压制，景气指数下降;对中下游仍有成本红利，但各行业受益程度不同。其中，化学原料和化学制 品制造业凭借需求的刚性，将成本红利转化为利润，景气逆势改善，成为全行业景气的稳定器;而 ...

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 98.95 in September 2025, reflecting a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.52 percentage points [2][9][11] - The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and seasonal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, which improved production activity and inventory turnover [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to support global demand for petrochemical products by weakening the dollar and enhancing market sentiment [3][13] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index decreased to 99.15, down 0.32 percentage points from August, indicating ongoing challenges despite the overall industry recovery [6][9][11] - The fuel processing industry saw a significant increase in its index to 103.90, up 0.88 percentage points, driven by improved production and sales during the consumption peak [9][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index rose to 99.39, up 0.86 percentage points, benefiting from enhanced production rates and inventory turnover [9][11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased to 93.21, up 0.55 percentage points, although it still faces structural pressures due to slow sales [9][11] Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has implemented a daily production increase of 547,000 barrels, contributing to a supply surplus in the oil market, while demand remains weak due to the end of the driving season in the U.S. [4][14] - Global manufacturing PMIs are below the growth threshold, indicating a sluggish demand environment that may keep oil prices under pressure [4][14] Future Outlook - The oil and chemical industry is expected to continue its mild recovery in October, contingent on sustained demand and effective inventory replenishment in downstream sectors [7][15] - The ongoing decline in raw material costs is anticipated to improve profit margins for downstream manufacturers, particularly in the chemical and polymer sectors [15]