导语 2025年9月，石油和化工行业景气指数为98.95，环比回升0.52个百分点，呈现温和回升态势。OPEC+增 产加之全球制造业疲软，原油市场供强需弱格局持续，原油价格延续弱势，石化行业成本压力持续趋 缓。此外，受国内"金九银十"旺季需求的拉动，石化行业整体生产热度及库存周转率有所改善，景气指 数呈现回升态势。国际方面，美联储降息释放流动性，逐步宽松的货币政策或为全球石化行业需求回暖 带来有力支撑。 热点聚焦 ●美联储降息25个基点，货币政策转向宽松 美东时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%~4.25%，标志着其货币政策 转向宽松周期。有业内人士分析，降息将从两个维度影响石化行业：利率下调将使得美元指数走弱，降 低以美元计价的原油等商品的成本，刺激全球需求;宽松的货币政策有助于改善市场对全球经济增长的 预期，为石化行业需求的有效复苏创造有利条件。 ●原油延续供强需弱，价格弱势运行 供应端，9月OPEC+正式执行每日54.7万桶增产计划，沙特、俄罗斯原油出口量环比均增长，全球原油 供应趋于宽松。需求端，美国驾驶旺季结束令汽油消费回落，主要经济体的制造业PMI普遍低于荣枯 线， ...

Core Insights - The cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.7% year-on-year from January to July, with a significant narrowing of the decline in July to 1.5%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The "Two New" policies, focusing on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, have significantly contributed to profit growth in new momentum industries, particularly in equipment manufacturing [1][5] - In July, profits in specific sectors such as electronic and electrical machinery manufacturing, general component manufacturing, and food and beverage equipment manufacturing saw substantial year-on-year increases of 87.9%, 15.3%, and 11.3% respectively [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year in July, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline in growth rate compared to previous months, remaining above the average of the past five years [3] - Export growth in July was recorded at 7.2%, surpassing the ten-year average of 3.6% for the same period, driven by "grabbing exports" and "grabbing Two New" initiatives [3] - The "anti-involution" effect has been reflected in the prices of raw materials, with significant reductions in price declines for various industries, contributing to a decrease in the overall impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3] Profit Recovery - From January to July, profits in the raw materials manufacturing sector increased by 10% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous period, with the steel processing industry turning profitable [5] - Small and medium-sized industrial enterprises showed signs of profit recovery in July, with profits turning from declines of 7.8% and 9.7% in June to increases of 1.8% and 0.5% respectively [6] - The overall industrial production maintained rapid growth in July, although challenges such as weak effective demand and low profit levels persist [6] Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" strategy is expected to focus on controlling increments while optimizing existing resources, leading to a gradual support for industrial profit growth [7] - With the expected normalization of supply and demand following extreme weather disruptions, industrial profits are anticipated to continue a mild recovery trend, with monthly year-on-year growth potentially turning positive [7] - Upcoming policies, including a new 500 billion yuan financial tool aimed at supporting infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, are expected to provide stable demand support [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of observing industrial concentration at both regional and industry levels to avoid "involution" and promote healthy industrial development [2][4]. Regional Perspective: Core Industries of Each Province - The average revenue share of the top-ranked industry in 30 provinces is 19.7%, with notable provinces exceeding 20%: Jilin (42.3% in automotive), Shanxi (38.7% in coal mining), Hebei (29.6% in black metal smelting), Beijing (28.4% in electric heat), Guangdong (25.7% in electronic equipment manufacturing), Hainan (25.6% in fuel processing), Shanghai (20.9% in automotive), Inner Mongolia (20.7% in coal mining), and Chongqing (20.6% in electronic equipment manufacturing [4][10]. - The combined revenue share of the top five industries in each province averages 54.9%, with higher concentrations in provinces like Hainan (66.4%), Shanxi (71.7%), Beijing (70.6%), Jilin (69.3%), Ningxia (67%), and Qinghai (79.5%) [4][10]. Industry Perspective: Advantageous Regions for Each Industry - The top five provinces in terms of industrial revenue account for 47.4% of the national industrial revenue, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Fujian being the largest [5][13]. - The average concentration of the top five industries across 41 sectors is 59.7%, with lower concentrations observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metal mining, food processing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing [5][13]. - In the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, notable concentration levels include electrical machinery (66.2%), electronic equipment (63.1%), and instruments (68.8%) [5][13]. Industry Presence Across Provinces - Eight industries, including electric heat, electronic equipment, and automotive, rank among the top five in revenue across more than ten provinces, indicating significant investment in these sectors [6][14]. - Conversely, industries like pharmaceutical manufacturing and specialized equipment manufacturing are only ranked in the top five in a limited number of provinces, highlighting potential areas for growth or investment [6][14].

石油和化工行业景气指数由中国石油和化学工业联合会与山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合编制，是石油 化工行业的微观景气循环监控指标，包括"石油和天然气开采业景气指数""燃料加工业景气指数""化学 原料和化学制品制造业景气指数""橡胶、塑料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数"4个分指数。石油和化 工行业景气指数的景气指标选择以度量行业的潜在产出和经济效益为标准，包括生产类微观数据和行业 效益类数据，其中生产类微观数据包括产能利用率、产品盈利能力、产成品库存水平。基础数据来源于 与千余家企业建立的定期调研评估结果。 核心摘要 ●终端需求恢复 景气指数回暖 4月，虽然美国关税政策对国内经济复苏造成冲击，但是国内刺激消费的举措不断出台，终端需求恢复 加速，企业补库增加，存货周转率止跌转升，带动石油和化工行业景气指数环比上升3.97个百分点，至 100.21。从分指数看，4月终端需求回暖，企业采购节奏加快，化学原料和化学制品制造业和橡胶、塑 料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数环比分别上升7.21个百分点和5.09个百分点。采购回升叠加出行需 求增加，对成品油需求亦有所增长，燃料加工业景气指数环比上升3.68个百分点。然而，市场对于关 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]