导语 石油和化工行业景气指数由中国石油和化学工业联合会与山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合编制，是 石油化工行业的微观景气循环监控指标，包括"石油和天然气开采业景气指数""燃料加工业景气指 数""化学原料和化学制品制造业景气指数""橡胶、塑料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数"4个分指数。 石油和化工行业景气指数的景气指标选择以度量行业的潜在产出和经济效益为标准，包括生产类微观数 据和行业效益类数据，生产类微观数据包括：产能利用率、产品盈利能力、产成品库存水平。基础数据 来源于与千余家企业建立的定期调研评估结果。 核心摘要 ●终端需求下滑，景气指数回落 2025年11月，石油和化工行业景气指数为97.21，环比下降2.58个百分点，结束了连续两个月的回升。行 业运行的核心逻辑发生变化，前期"需求改善"与"成本红利"的双重驱动减弱，季节性需求转弱成为全行 业的主基调。与此同时，持续的低油价对行业上下游产生了显著的分化效应：对上游的油气开采业形成 价格压制，景气指数下降;对中下游仍有成本红利，但各行业受益程度不同。其中，化学原料和化学制 品制造业凭借需求的刚性，将成本红利转化为利润，景气逆势改善，成为全行业景气的稳定器;而 ...

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 98.95 in September 2025, reflecting a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.52 percentage points [2][11] - The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and seasonal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, which improved production activity and inventory turnover [2][11] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 99.15, while the fuel processing industry saw an increase of 0.88 percentage points to 103.90 due to improved consumption and production rates [7][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index rose by 0.86 percentage points to 99.39, driven by enhanced production rates and inventory turnover [11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased by 0.55 percentage points to 93.21, although it faced structural pressures due to slow inventory turnover [11] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% is expected to weaken the dollar, reducing costs for dollar-denominated commodities like oil and stimulating global demand [3][16] - OPEC+ has implemented a daily production increase of 547,000 barrels, contributing to a more relaxed global oil supply, while demand remains weak due to the end of the U.S. driving season and low manufacturing PMI across major economies [4][17] Future Outlook - In October, the oil price is expected to continue its weak trend, with ongoing relief in cost pressures for the petrochemical industry [9][18] - If seasonal demand continues to improve, particularly in sectors like home appliances, automotive, and textiles, there could be a positive impact on sales and profits in the downstream sectors [18]

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 98.95 in September 2025, reflecting a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.52 percentage points [2][9][11] - The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and seasonal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, which improved production activity and inventory turnover [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to support global demand for petrochemical products by weakening the dollar and enhancing market sentiment [3][13] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index decreased to 99.15, down 0.32 percentage points from August, indicating ongoing challenges despite the overall industry recovery [6][9][11] - The fuel processing industry saw a significant increase in its index to 103.90, up 0.88 percentage points, driven by improved production and sales during the consumption peak [9][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index rose to 99.39, up 0.86 percentage points, benefiting from enhanced production rates and inventory turnover [9][11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased to 93.21, up 0.55 percentage points, although it still faces structural pressures due to slow sales [9][11] Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has implemented a daily production increase of 547,000 barrels, contributing to a supply surplus in the oil market, while demand remains weak due to the end of the driving season in the U.S. [4][14] - Global manufacturing PMIs are below the growth threshold, indicating a sluggish demand environment that may keep oil prices under pressure [4][14] Future Outlook - The oil and chemical industry is expected to continue its mild recovery in October, contingent on sustained demand and effective inventory replenishment in downstream sectors [7][15] - The ongoing decline in raw material costs is anticipated to improve profit margins for downstream manufacturers, particularly in the chemical and polymer sectors [15]

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index has increased by 3.97 percentage points in April, reaching 100.21, driven by the recovery of terminal demand and increased inventory replenishment [2][9][10] - The sub-indices for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing rose by 7.21 and 5.09 percentage points respectively, indicating a significant recovery in these sectors [2][6] - However, the oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell by 1.06 percentage points due to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which did not translate into upstream recovery [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and chemical industry is monitored through a composite index that includes four sub-indices: oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing, and rubber and plastic products manufacturing [1] - The index is based on microeconomic data such as capacity utilization, product profitability, and finished goods inventory levels, sourced from regular surveys of over a thousand enterprises [1] Market Challenges - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have posed challenges to the petrochemical industry, impacting the import and export of certain petrochemical products [3][12][14] - The international oil price has faced downward pressure due to the US tariff policies and unexpected production increases from OPEC+, leading to a significant decline in April [4][15] Future Outlook - The holiday economy is expected to continue supporting terminal demand, which may lead to further increases in the prosperity index in May [7][16] - However, the low international oil prices are likely to exert pressure on the production and operational performance of petrochemical enterprises, potentially hindering the recovery of the prosperity index [16]