Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 98.95 in September 2025, reflecting a mild recovery with a month-on-month increase of 0.52 percentage points [2][11] - The recovery is attributed to easing cost pressures and seasonal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, which improved production activity and inventory turnover [2][11] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 99.15, while the fuel processing industry saw an increase of 0.88 percentage points to 103.90 due to improved consumption and production rates [7][11] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector's index rose by 0.86 percentage points to 99.39, driven by enhanced production rates and inventory turnover [11] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index increased by 0.55 percentage points to 93.21, although it faced structural pressures due to slow inventory turnover [11] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% is expected to weaken the dollar, reducing costs for dollar-denominated commodities like oil and stimulating global demand [3][16] - OPEC+ has implemented a daily production increase of 547,000 barrels, contributing to a more relaxed global oil supply, while demand remains weak due to the end of the U.S. driving season and low manufacturing PMI across major economies [4][17] Future Outlook - In October, the oil price is expected to continue its weak trend, with ongoing relief in cost pressures for the petrochemical industry [9][18] - If seasonal demand continues to improve, particularly in sectors like home appliances, automotive, and textiles, there could be a positive impact on sales and profits in the downstream sectors [18]

导语 2025年9月，石油和化工行业景气指数为98.95，环比回升0.52个百分点，呈现温和回升态势。OPEC+增 产加之全球制造业疲软，原油市场供强需弱格局持续，原油价格延续弱势，石化行业成本压力持续趋 缓。此外，受国内"金九银十"旺季需求的拉动，石化行业整体生产热度及库存周转率有所改善，景气指 数呈现回升态势。国际方面，美联储降息释放流动性，逐步宽松的货币政策或为全球石化行业需求回暖 带来有力支撑。 热点聚焦 ●美联储降息25个基点，货币政策转向宽松 美东时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%~4.25%，标志着其货币政策 转向宽松周期。有业内人士分析，降息将从两个维度影响石化行业：利率下调将使得美元指数走弱，降 低以美元计价的原油等商品的成本，刺激全球需求;宽松的货币政策有助于改善市场对全球经济增长的 预期，为石化行业需求的有效复苏创造有利条件。 ●原油延续供强需弱，价格弱势运行 供应端，9月OPEC+正式执行每日54.7万桶增产计划，沙特、俄罗斯原油出口量环比均增长，全球原油 供应趋于宽松。需求端，美国驾驶旺季结束令汽油消费回落，主要经济体的制造业PMI普遍低于荣枯 线， ...

石油和化工行业景气指数由中国石油和化学工业联合会与山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合编制，是石油 化工行业的微观景气循环监控指标，包括"石油和天然气开采业景气指数""燃料加工业景气指数""化学 原料和化学制品制造业景气指数""橡胶、塑料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数"4个分指数。石油和化 工行业景气指数的景气指标选择以度量行业的潜在产出和经济效益为标准，包括生产类微观数据和行业 效益类数据，其中生产类微观数据包括产能利用率、产品盈利能力、产成品库存水平。基础数据来源于 与千余家企业建立的定期调研评估结果。 核心摘要 ●终端需求恢复 景气指数回暖 4月，虽然美国关税政策对国内经济复苏造成冲击，但是国内刺激消费的举措不断出台，终端需求恢复 加速，企业补库增加，存货周转率止跌转升，带动石油和化工行业景气指数环比上升3.97个百分点，至 100.21。从分指数看，4月终端需求回暖，企业采购节奏加快，化学原料和化学制品制造业和橡胶、塑 料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数环比分别上升7.21个百分点和5.09个百分点。采购回升叠加出行需 求增加，对成品油需求亦有所增长，燃料加工业景气指数环比上升3.68个百分点。然而，市场对于关 ...