随着近来美股市场出现动荡、甲骨文CDS（信用违约掉期）交易激增，甚至连AI领域的内部人士也开始 承认市场有些泡沫，这使得对冲基金等活跃机构当前是"如何、何时、何地"做空市场，成为了不少投资 者关注的焦点。 好在，高盛最新发布的对冲基金仓位报告，涵盖了不少值得深挖的信息。从高盛报告中能得到的核心发 现是：所谓的"聪明钱"目前尚未准备好大举做空AI巨头，但部分机构却已开始瞄准该领域中实力相对 较弱的的一些公司…… 美股空头仓位处于近年来高位 先来看整体市场的情况。尽管年内经历了强劲的涨势，但标普500指数成分股的空头比例中位数仍然高 得惊人。目前的空头头寸相当于总市值的2.4%，处于过去五年的第99百分位——且远高于自1995年以 来的长期平均水平。 公用事业板块成AI泡沫缩影？ 业内人士其实早在今年5月份就注意到美股做空兴趣的回升，但有趣的是，自那时以来，该水平依然略 有上升并保持高位——尽管在7月和10月中旬发生过两次规模虽小但足以令空头感到痛苦的逼空行情。 在不同的指数方面，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数目前的空头比例比标普500还要略高，为2.5%。 当然，空头最多盘踞的还是小盘股，罗素2000指数成分 ...

Group 1 - The overall CPI data for July in the U.S. was lower than expected, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut rates" in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September [1][5] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical highs, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index rising over 1% on August 12 [1][8] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 84% prior to the CPI data release [5] Group 2 - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, below the market expectation of 2.8%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, marking a six-month high [2][4] - Core service inflation remained unchanged at 3.6%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [2][4] - The prices of goods more closely related to tariffs, such as clothing and furniture, showed a decline, indicating a potential easing of tariff impacts on retail [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions may widen following the CPI data release, with some officials softening their stance on future policy paths [5][7] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting may provide insights into the Fed's direction, particularly regarding labor market risks [7] - The market's inflation expectations are gradually decreasing, providing ample room for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market has been on an upward trend, with significant contributions from technology and financial sectors, as investors adjust their valuation expectations in a potential rate-cut environment [8][9] - The rise in stock prices has been heavily reliant on a few large technology companies, which have contributed nearly 80% of the S&P 500 index's returns, indicating a structural risk in the market [9]

Group 1: Nvidia's Market Milestone - Nvidia has become the first company in history to reach a market capitalization of over $4 trillion, with a peak stock price of $164.42 [2][4] - As of the latest close, Nvidia's market cap stands at approximately $3.974 trillion (around 28.61 trillion RMB), nearing the $4 trillion mark [2] - Nvidia's market value surpasses the combined market capitalization of Canada and Mexico's stock markets, as well as that of major European countries [4] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market, led by major banks, has reclaimed the 3500-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3509 points, up 0.48% [1] - The banking sector has shown significant growth, with the China Securities Banking Index rising 61.89% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index [13] - Major banks such as ICBC and CCB have reached historical highs, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1][13] Group 3: Investment Trends and Insights - The surge in Nvidia's stock is attributed to strong AI capital expenditure expectations from North American tech giants, indicating a robust demand for AI capabilities [9] - The banking sector's performance is driven by capital inflows, with significant investments from insurance funds and index funds, highlighting the attractiveness of bank stocks for their dividends and stability [20] - The real estate sector has also shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in stock prices for several real estate companies, driven by market speculation on potential stimulus policies [24]