Core Viewpoint - Moderate optimism is essential, and one must learn to choose the right battlefield for investment opportunities [1][55]. Investment Insights - The worst-performing sectors in the past two decades for the Founders Fund have been educational software and healthcare informatics [2][58]. - Areas that are not popular but where unique insights exist are more likely to yield genuine opportunities [2][70]. - When everyone agrees on an "obvious" opportunity, having a different perspective is crucial for success [2][69]. Systemic Failures - There are significant inefficiencies in government systems, such as the exorbitant cost of infrastructure projects, which can create opportunities for those willing to navigate the complexities [6][88]. - The education and healthcare sectors have deep-rooted systemic issues that have resisted reform despite numerous attempts [59][61]. - The government budget system is often opaque, leading to misallocation of resources and inefficiencies [82][86]. Choosing the Right Battlefield - It is important to wait for the right moment to act, rather than forcing action in stagnant conditions [3][116]. - The nuclear energy sector presents opportunities for innovation, but it is hindered by regulatory barriers [104][106]. - Urban governance issues are seen as particularly challenging, with little hope for meaningful change [108][111]. Macro Trends - The current political climate presents a unique opportunity for reform, with the potential for significant changes in trade policies and international relations [72][90]. - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI and automation, may offer pathways to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [91][92]. Cultural and Systemic Reflections - There is a growing recognition of the disconnect between societal expectations and the realities of institutional performance, particularly in elite educational institutions [13][25]. - The cultural shift in Silicon Valley suggests a potential renaissance, as more individuals begin to voice their true opinions about systemic failures [120][126].

1、 适度的乐观才是对的。而在这个前提下，你必须学会选择自己的战场。 2、 从投资回报的角度看，我在过去二十年中作为 Founders Fund创始合伙人尝试过的各类投资里， 表现最差的两个领域，就是教育软件和医疗信息化。 3、 当所有人都认同这是一件 "显而易见的大事"时，如果你不能拿出一种完全不同的视角，你就几乎 没戏。 两人多年好友，对话没有太多寒暄，直接切入问题本身： "在一个越来越多系统坏掉的时代，聪明人该怎么选择战场？" 他吐槽了很多美国政府系统失灵的、不可思议之处。比如 地铁 ， 美国修建 1 英里 需要 10 亿美元， 10倍于伦敦搭建的成本；政 府预算明面上写着 "援助非洲"，实际上却是给政党选举买单 …… 反倒是那些不那么热门、但你有独特认知差的地方，更容易挖出真正的机会。 4、 你不能什么都干。你不能像一个冲浪者，在一个没有浪的平静日子里拼命划水。 你要等到有浪来的时候，在恰当的位置发力 ，才会有效果。 彼得 ·蒂尔（Peter Thiel） 在中国 最广为人知的身份，可能是《从 0到1》 的 作者，是支持特朗普的 硅谷少数派，是与马斯克曾在 PayPal一起打天下的早期合伙人。 他是 ...