专题：聚焦2025年第三季度美股财报 家得宝公司发布了对明年的谨慎初步业绩指引，这一信号表明这家家居装修零售商并不预期房地产市场 会在短期内出现反弹。 该公司预计全年同店销售额增速将在持平至增长 2% 区间，低于彭博社汇总的市场平均预期。同店销售 额是衡量零售行业业绩的关键指标。家得宝给出的总销售额增长预期也同样低于市场预估。 受美国房地产市场拖累，家得宝业绩承压。高利率环境下，消费者对大额采购以及需要融资的装修项目 持观望态度。尽管当前抵押贷款利率较一年前有所回落，但受整体经济领域成本高企影响，美国民众依 旧行事谨慎。同时，房价仍处于高位，意味着很大一部分人群已愈发难以负担住房。 家得宝将于周二举办分析师投资者日活动，其还同步给出了 "市场复苏" 情景下的业绩预期 —— 即当公 司观察到住房市场活跃度和相关支出回升时，业绩将实现更高增长。在此情景下，同店销售额预计将增 长 4% 至 5%。 该公司首席财务官理查德・麦克菲尔在声明中表示："我们认为住房市场面临的压力终将得到缓解，届 时家居装修市场的增长速度将快于整体经济增速。" 他还补充道，家得宝有望 "继续实现快于行业整体 的增长"。 在最新财报中，家得宝 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 0.6% [2] - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield up 1.6 basis points to 3.596% and the 10-year yield up 1.2 basis points to 4.132% [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated significant internal disagreement regarding a potential rate cut in December [4] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock rose 2.8% after reporting earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with a strong revenue forecast for Q4, leading to a post-market surge of over 5% [3] - Other tech stocks also saw gains, with Google up 2.8%, Oracle up 2.3%, and Tesla up 0.7%, while Meta and Microsoft experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively [3] - Lowe's, a home improvement retailer, saw its stock rise nearly 6% after reporting third-quarter earnings that surpassed market expectations and raised its full-year sales guidance [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell over 2%, with U.S. crude oil inventory increases raising concerns about oversupply; light crude oil futures for December delivery dropped $1.30 to $59.44 per barrel, a decline of 2.14% [6] - Gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery rising 0.40% to $4077.70 per ounce [6]

此外，劳氏将年度调整后每股收益预期下调至约12.25美元，此前预期区间为12.20至12.45美元。 家居装修零售商劳氏公司(LOW.US)美股周三盘前公布第三季度财报，加入竞争对手家得宝(HD.US)的 行列，同样预计年度利润和销售额将增长乏力。本年度，受经济不确定性和居高不下的通胀影响，美国 人纷纷推迟大额家居装修支出。 数据显示，该零售商财年第三季度营收为208.1亿美元，与市场预期的208.2亿美元基本持平，调整后每 股收益为3.06美元，超出市场平均预期的2.97美元。 公司预计全年总销售额为860亿美元，高于此前845亿至855亿美元的预期，增长得益于近期的一项收购 交易。不过公司表示，剔除一次性因素的行业核心指标——同店销售额，预计将同比持平，而此前给出 的预期区间为持平至增长1%。 今年，劳氏已耗资数十亿美元收购了Foundation Building Materials(基础建筑材料公司)和Artisan Design Group(工匠设计集团)，旨在增强对专业承包商的吸引力。这一策略与家得宝的举措不谋而合。 这一黯淡预期出台的背景是，美国家庭正艰难应对各类开支上涨，从食品杂货、汽车保险到医 ...

Group 1: James Hardie (JHX) - James Hardie's stock price plummeted over 34%, marking the largest drop since 1973, closing at $18.64 per share with a market capitalization of $8 billion [1][2] - For Q1 of FY2026, the company reported a net sales figure of $900 million, a 9% year-over-year decline, and an adjusted net profit of $127 million, down 29% year-over-year [2] - The CEO highlighted uncertainty in the market, attributing the decline to high borrowing costs and a bleak outlook for North American operations, particularly in single-family home construction [2][3] Group 2: Home Improvement Retailers - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot expressed similar concerns regarding the impact of high interest rates on consumer spending and large renovation projects [3] - Lowe's projected a stable overall home improvement market for the year, while acknowledging short-term challenges such as rising mortgage rates and consumer affordability issues [3] Group 3: Palantir Technologies - Palantir's stock fell 1.1% to $156, marking the sixth consecutive day of decline, with a total drop of over 16% during this period [1][4] - The stock has dropped 18% from its recent intraday high, causing it to fall out of the list of the 20 most valuable companies in the U.S. [5] - A short report from Andrew Left of Citron Research claimed Palantir's stock is disconnected from its fundamentals, suggesting a fair value of $40 compared to its current valuation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant stock price declines for James Hardie and Palantir, indicating challenges in the construction materials and data analytics sectors due to market conditions and investor sentiment [1][3][5]. Group 1: James Hardie (JHX) - James Hardie's stock price plummeted over 34%, marking the largest drop since 1973, closing at $18.64 per share with a market capitalization of $8 billion [1][3]. - The company's latest financial report for Q1 of FY2026 showed a 9% year-over-year decline in net sales to $900 million and a 29% drop in adjusted net profit to $127 million, attributed to high borrowing costs and a bleak outlook for North American operations [3][4]. - CEO Aaron Erter noted that uncertainty is prevalent among customers and contractors, with weak market demand primarily due to a slowdown in single-family home activities, particularly in the southern U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Palantir - Palantir's stock fell 1.1% to $156, marking its sixth consecutive day of decline, with a total drop of over 16% during this period [1][6]. - The company is experiencing its longest downturn since April 2024, with its stock down 18% from recent highs, causing it to drop out of the list of the 20 most valuable companies in the U.S. [7][8]. - Andrew Left from Citron Research criticized Palantir's valuation, suggesting it should be around $40 based on fundamentals, despite the company recently reporting its first $1 billion quarterly revenue, which exceeded Wall Street expectations [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is strategically expanding its presence in the professional contractor market through acquisitions, aiming to sustain growth amid challenges in the DIY segment [2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - Home Depot announced the acquisition of GMS for approximately $4.3 billion, indicating a strong push into the professional contractor market [2]. - GMS operates a vast network of around 320 distribution centers and offers products like gypsum wallboard and ceiling materials, which are key to Home Depot's strategy [2][3]. - This acquisition follows Home Depot's previous $18 billion purchase of SRS Distribution, marking a significant shift towards capturing larger orders from professional clients [2][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Home Depot's sales growth in the U.S. for stores open for at least a year was only 0.2% in the first quarter, highlighting the need for a strategic shift [4]. - The company aims to diversify its customer base beyond DIY consumers to include professionals handling complex projects, such as pool installations and roof repairs [4][5]. - Home Depot's sales reached $159.5 billion last year, nearly double that of ten years ago, showcasing the effectiveness of its acquisition strategy [5]. Group 3: Comparison with Competitors - Home Depot's acquisition strategy contrasts with other retailers like Lowe's, which have faced challenges and losses from their acquisitions [6][7]. - Approximately 70% of mergers and acquisitions fail, but Home Depot's careful approach has yielded significant long-term benefits, setting a standard for other large companies [7].

Core Insights - Lowe's reported better-than-expected same-store sales despite weakened consumer confidence and economic volatility, with a same-store sales decline of 1.7% for the quarter ending May 2, but expects this key sales metric to remain flat or grow by up to 1% for the year [1] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $20.93 billion, a year-over-year decline of 2.2%, which fell short of market expectations, while earnings per share were $2.92, exceeding market expectations by $0.05 [1] - The decline in same-store sales was partially attributed to adverse weather at the beginning of the quarter, but growth in online business and professional contractor (Pro) services helped mitigate this impact [1] Industry Context - Despite economic turmoil, U.S. consumers have not significantly reduced or altered home spending, as indicated by the performance of Lowe's and its main competitor, Home Depot [1] - High interest rates have led many consumers to postpone large projects while still engaging in smaller projects, which has helped both companies meet or slightly exceed Wall Street expectations [1] - Home Depot executives noted that the worst economic scenarios seem to be behind them, aided by a diversified supply chain, and they expect to maintain current price levels amid stable spending and limited stockpiling due to tariffs [1] Performance Guidance - Lowe's anticipates total sales for 2025 to be between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, with market expectations averaging $84.31 billion; comparable sales are expected to remain flat or grow by 1% [3] Operational Footprint - As of May 2, 2025, Lowe's operates 1,750 stores with a retail space of 195.3 million square feet [4]

Group 1: Company Performance Expectations - Home Depot (HD.US) is expected to report a first-quarter sales increase of 8% year-over-year, reaching $39.26 billion, while Lowe's (LOW.US) is projected to see a 2% decline in revenue to $20.95 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share for Home Depot are anticipated to decrease to $3.56, and for Lowe's, to $2.87 [1] - Analysts are generally optimistic, with 11 out of 13 analysts rating Home Depot as "buy" or equivalent, and 10 out of 15 analysts rating Lowe's as "buy" [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights and Market Conditions - UBS analysts do not expect any significant surprises in the first-quarter results but remain positive on the stocks due to stable demand and potential improvement in the housing market later this year [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts view these retailers as "high-quality barometers" and expect them to maintain previous annual forecasts, although they may widen guidance ranges to reflect uncertainties [2] - Concerns over consumer spending due to tariff uncertainties have led to a downgrade in same-store sales forecasts for both Home Depot and Lowe's [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Walmart (WMT.US) reported solid quarterly sales but indicated that tariffs and economic volatility would lead to price increases, creating pressure on competitors like Home Depot and Lowe's [3] - Recent performance from consumer-facing companies has been weak, with several firms lowering annual forecasts amid demand fluctuations and economic uncertainty [3]