白酒、鞋服、美护等"被时代抛弃"的传统消费，过去一年常常被按在底部摩擦，但年终总结，仍不乏走出独立行情、股价逆势增长30%甚至50%的玩家。 "捕鱼要去一个有鱼的地方"，这个道理很朴素，实践起来却不简单。 错综复杂的消费市场，要求投资人具备一双能穿透表象的眼睛，把"宏观趋势"与"微观行为"链接起来，在行业β中发掘企业的α，从总量波动中识别结构性 的先机。 文 | 表外表里 ，作者 | 赫晋一、张冉冉 ，编辑 | 曹宾玲、付晓玲 大消费，被视为"2026年最大投资机会之一"，但投哪里、怎么投，众说纷纭。 打开社交平台，年轻人为限量潮玩一掷千金，中产炮轰山姆搞"国产替代"，每逢节假日中国游客就像泡发的压缩木耳一样炸满全球，消费力有目共睹。然 而，千亿级增长的居民存款，又指向强预期、弱现实的风险。 就在年前，"表外表里"长期追踪的"中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）以及配套的"全球品牌中国线上500强榜单"（CBI500）发布了第三期，消费变化再次于 数据中得到验证：茅台、五粮液等"老登消费"CBI排名大跌，白酒行业整体销售、复购等指标疲软；"小登经济"的代表泡泡玛特，则在股价大跌的季度， 排名从第24蹿升到第12。 ...

从行业表现看，各行业消费品牌指数存在明显差异。更高的行业评分，意味着该行业的无品牌产品与低 评分品牌较少，且销售额更多集中于头部品牌；较低的行业评分，则意味着该行业仍有较大的品牌竞争 空间。与此前分布一致，CBI指数位居前列的行业为3C数码、家用电器、美妆、运动户外等。这表明， 在这些领域中，消费者对产品品质、功能及品牌认知的要求更高，品牌效应更为明显。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月25日电（记者丁雅雯）2025年第三季度"中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）25日正式发 布。本期指数为62.65，较去年同期增长0.92%，增速自2023年起保持增长态势，显示消费者在线上购物 时，对品质、品牌的重视程度持续增强。 纪洋表示，尽管市场上出现"白牌崛起"的讨论，但CBI整体走势表明，品牌消费仍处于扩张阶段。"许多 品牌方面临战略方向的困惑，在'低价获客'与'价值创新'之间难以抉择。从消费需求和趋势上看，企业 仍应致力于提升品牌价值，避免陷入低价竞争或通过削减产品功能降低成本的发展模式。" 据悉，中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）由北京大学国家发展研究院、北京大学数字金融研究中心、中山 大学商学院合作开发。指 ...

Core Insights - The fashion industry is characterized by intense competition, with fast fashion brands focusing on rapid product turnover, domestic brands emphasizing design and cost-effectiveness, and high-end brands promoting a lifestyle approach [1][2] - The high return rates in the industry highlight the importance of member systems for brands to retain core customers, making membership a standard feature across the sector [2][3] Membership System Importance - The effectiveness of a brand's membership system can determine whether it serves as a short-term promotional tool or a long-term growth engine [3] - The "Global Brand China Online 500 Strong List" released by Peking University indicates that member transaction amounts are crucial for understanding consumer behavior and brand loyalty [3][4] Consumer Behavior and Quality - Quality is identified as the core factor influencing consumers to join and remain in a brand's membership program, with strong correlations between quality ratings and member transaction amounts [10][12] - High-quality products lead to increased consumer satisfaction, which in turn enhances member loyalty and repeat purchases [14][15] Impact of Promotions - Major promotional events like the 618 shopping festival have evolved from mere sales events to opportunities for brands to solidify their membership assets [6][8] - The correlation between member transaction amounts and overall sales during promotional periods underscores the significance of a well-developed membership system [6][8] Brand Case Studies - The brand "Jiaxia" has successfully implemented a tiered membership system that encourages repeat purchases through a structured growth mechanism, enhancing user engagement and loyalty [23][24] - Nike's membership system focuses on providing comprehensive experiences around sports, fostering a sense of community and personal growth among members, which strengthens emotional ties to the brand [25][26] Conclusion - Membership systems are becoming essential growth engines for brands, particularly during major promotional events, as they help convert one-time buyers into long-term customers [27][28]