最近有本名叫《以日为鉴》的书颇为流行，全书的论点并不新奇，还是以日本"失去的三十年"，作为我们的镜鉴。大概恰逢最近的社会情绪，让人看了既 有隔岸观火之感，又隐隐有些担忧。 客观而言，这本书对于日本问题的回溯是非常详细的，毕竟用了超过十万字，但可能是作者自身的兴趣原因，书中竟很少着墨于日本本土的消费市场，寥 寥几处，也只简单概括为"低欲望社会"。 01 选择性消费升级 但当整个行业走出低价内卷，却发现情况确实和想象的不一样，原来中国并没有走进所谓的"消费更年期"。 可以为这个观点提供佐证的，是近日由北京大学国家发展研究院等机构联合编制的《中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）第三期报告》（以下简称报告），在 远离"618"与"双11"的2025年第三季度，全国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）依然达到了62.65，较2023年同期增长4.4%，2024年同期增长0.92%，而且2023年以 来每个季度同比都是增长的。 要注意，消费品牌指数（CBI）并不是一个消费规模的概念，其核心是体现消费者在购物中，购买高品质品牌商品的比例，当更多人选择购买高品质的品 牌商品，而非白牌，这个指数才会上升。指数利用了中国最大的电商平台淘宝全量大 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market in China is viewed as one of the biggest investment opportunities by 2026, but there are differing opinions on where and how to invest [1] - Traditional consumption sectors like liquor, apparel, and beauty have faced challenges, yet some brands have managed to achieve stock price increases of 30% to 50% [2] - The complexity of the consumer market requires investors to connect macro trends with micro behaviors to identify structural opportunities [3] Group 2 - The "China Online Consumption Brand Index" (CBI) and the "Global Brand China Online 500" list reveal significant shifts in consumer preferences, with traditional liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye declining while newer brands like Pop Mart are rising [3][4] - The CBI index reflects the performance of brands based on real consumer behavior, including sales, price, search volume, and reputation [4] - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with brands like Jian Nan Chun and Shanxi Fenjiu adapting to new consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [6][7][13] Group 3 - The outdoor apparel market is shifting from niche enthusiasts to mainstream consumers, with brands like Berghaus gaining traction due to their stylish and affordable offerings [17] - Emerging brands in the cosmetics sector, such as Huazhi Xiao, are capitalizing on specific consumer trends and achieving significant growth in brand rankings [20][22] - The CBI index serves as a lens to identify changes in consumer demand and potential growth opportunities across various sectors [24] Group 4 - Pop Mart's financial performance shows a significant increase in overseas revenue, yet the stock has faced volatility due to market sentiment rather than fundamentals [26][28] - The brand maintains a leading position in the industry despite short-term fluctuations, indicating strong brand loyalty and potential for future growth [29][30] - The luxury gold market is experiencing challenges as competition increases, impacting customer loyalty and market positioning for brands like Laopufeng [40][35] Group 5 - The beauty industry is witnessing a resurgence for brands like Chanel and YSL as they adapt to new marketing channels and consumer preferences [22] - The investment landscape is influenced by varying investor strategies, with short-term traders reacting differently than long-term investors to market signals [34][41] - The Chinese consumer market is complex and requires a multifaceted approach to uncover hidden opportunities [42]

最新"全球品牌中国线上500强"季度榜单发布，真实消费指标为品牌发展提供科学参考 12月25日，由北京大学国家发展研究院牵头编制的最新季度"中国线上消费品牌指数"（CBI）、 "全球品牌中国线上500强 榜单"（CBI500）和 "线上品牌购买力指数"（BPI）发布。 本次研究基于2025年7月至9月淘宝天猫平台的真实消费大数据展开，结果显示，全国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）为62.65， 同比增长0.92%，意味着线上消费者对于品牌商品的偏好继续上升。具体品牌评分排名方面，凭借在成交额、搜索、好评 等维度的优异表现，大疆、泡泡玛特等国产原创品牌增长迅速，大疆首次跻身"全球品牌中国线上500强榜单"前10，泡泡玛 特名列第12位。 | 全球品牌中国线上500强 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度(前50名) | | | | | | | | | | | 北京大学国家发展研究院编制 淘天集团技术支持 | | | | | | | | | | | ▼ 综合评分由12项指 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the fluctuating consumer behavior in response to market trends, highlighting the challenges of predicting price movements in sectors like gold and collectibles [2][4][5] - The CBI index, developed by Peking University, provides a standardized scoring system for online brands, reflecting various dimensions of consumer behavior and market dynamics [8][10][18] - The CBI index reveals significant growth in younger consumers (ages 18-24) in sectors like home appliances and furniture, indicating a shift in spending patterns [12][17] Group 2 - The article identifies potential investment opportunities in emerging brands like Pop Mart and Laopu Gold, which continue to attract consumer interest despite market skepticism [11][15] - The CBI index shows a notable increase in market concentration in the pet supplies sector, with leading brands gaining market share, reflecting changing consumer preferences [22][23] - The electric vehicle market is undergoing a transformation, with new players like Niu and Ninebot gaining traction among younger consumers, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [25][26][35] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of data in understanding market trends, suggesting that the CBI index can help investors identify potential opportunities and validate market assumptions [28][38] - It highlights the impact of brand reputation on stock performance, illustrating how negative publicity can lead to significant stock price fluctuations, while underlying consumer loyalty may remain intact [39][44] - The CBI index serves as a tool for tracking brand performance and market trends, providing insights that go beyond traditional financial reports [31][52][65]

Core Insights - The fashion industry is characterized by intense competition, with fast fashion brands focusing on rapid product turnover, domestic brands emphasizing design and cost-effectiveness, and high-end brands promoting a lifestyle approach [1][2] - The high return rates in the industry highlight the importance of member systems for brands to retain core customers, making membership a standard feature across the sector [2][3] Membership System Importance - The effectiveness of a brand's membership system can determine whether it serves as a short-term promotional tool or a long-term growth engine [3] - The "Global Brand China Online 500 Strong List" released by Peking University indicates that member transaction amounts are crucial for understanding consumer behavior and brand loyalty [3][4] Consumer Behavior and Quality - Quality is identified as the core factor influencing consumers to join and remain in a brand's membership program, with strong correlations between quality ratings and member transaction amounts [10][12] - High-quality products lead to increased consumer satisfaction, which in turn enhances member loyalty and repeat purchases [14][15] Impact of Promotions - Major promotional events like the 618 shopping festival have evolved from mere sales events to opportunities for brands to solidify their membership assets [6][8] - The correlation between member transaction amounts and overall sales during promotional periods underscores the significance of a well-developed membership system [6][8] Brand Case Studies - The brand "Jiaxia" has successfully implemented a tiered membership system that encourages repeat purchases through a structured growth mechanism, enhancing user engagement and loyalty [23][24] - Nike's membership system focuses on providing comprehensive experiences around sports, fostering a sense of community and personal growth among members, which strengthens emotional ties to the brand [25][26] Conclusion - Membership systems are becoming essential growth engines for brands, particularly during major promotional events, as they help convert one-time buyers into long-term customers [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape between international and domestic brands in China, highlighting that international brands still hold significant market share despite the rise of domestic brands. The CBI500 list shows that international brands remain popular among Chinese consumers, indicating their strong market presence and consumer loyalty [1][3][18]. Group 1: International Brands' Market Position - The CBI500 list includes 156 international brands, with Apple ranking first, demonstrating the continued strength of international brands in the Chinese market [1][3]. - In sectors like beauty and sportswear, international brands dominate, with 8 out of the top 10 beauty brands being international and 70% of outdoor sports brands also being international [1][5]. - International brands maintain a competitive edge due to their technological advancements and established supply chains, which are difficult for domestic brands to replicate [5][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and E-commerce Impact - The CBI500 list is based on real consumer behavior data from platforms like Taobao and Tmall, reflecting genuine consumer preferences and the ongoing enthusiasm for international brands [3][10]. - E-commerce has transformed the retail landscape in China, with international brands increasingly relying on platforms like Tmall to reach consumers, highlighting the importance of digital channels for market penetration [10][12]. - The rise of e-commerce has allowed domestic brands to compete more effectively, as they can quickly adapt to consumer needs and preferences without the constraints of traditional retail [11][22]. Group 3: Challenges and Adaptation of International Brands - International brands face challenges in adapting to the rapidly changing consumer landscape in China, necessitating a shift towards localization and understanding of local consumer demands [12][25]. - Brands like Adidas and Uniqlo have successfully implemented localization strategies, leveraging e-commerce data to enhance their product offerings and marketing approaches [15][16][14]. - Despite their technological advantages, international brands must improve their responsiveness to local consumer needs to maintain their market positions [25][26]. Group 4: Domestic Brands' Rise and Innovation - Domestic brands are increasingly moving from being mere followers to innovators, leveraging their understanding of local markets to create competitive products [20][21]. - Brands like Xiaomi and ICICLE have successfully introduced innovative concepts that challenge established international brands, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics [20][21]. - The success of domestic brands in niche markets, such as small appliances, showcases their ability to quickly respond to emerging consumer trends and preferences [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of competition in the Chinese market will revolve around product innovation and understanding consumer emotions, with a focus on niche markets [22][26]. - International brands must enhance their local market insights and adapt their strategies to align with evolving consumer expectations to sustain their growth in China [26].

Core Insights - The trend of global trade is unstoppable, with the Chinese market becoming an indispensable strategic high ground for international brands [1] - The "Global Brand China Online 500 Strong List" (CBI500) was recently released, showcasing 156 international brands across various industries [1][3] - The report indicates that international brands are increasingly focusing on the Chinese market, with many expressing confidence in future investments [4][5] Group 1: CBI500 Rankings - The top-ranked brands include Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi in the 3C digital sector, with Apple achieving a perfect score of 100.00 [2] - Other notable brands in the top rankings include Midea and Haier in home appliances, and Nike and Adidas in sportswear [2] - The report highlights that international brands account for 31.2% of the top 500 brands and 36% of the top 100 brands [3][12] Group 2: Market Trends and Brand Strategies - The Chinese market is seen as a critical area for international brands, with executives from companies like L'Oréal and Adidas emphasizing their commitment to long-term investments in China [5][6] - L'Oréal reported a 4.4% year-on-year sales growth in Q1 2025, with strong performance in high-end cosmetics and skincare [5] - Adidas has experienced quality growth for seven consecutive quarters in the Greater China region, reaffirming its strategic importance [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Brand Performance - The CBI report indicates a significant recovery in consumer quality in China, with the online consumption brand index rising from 59.42 to 63.38 between Q1 2023 and Q1 2025 [10][12] - The report also notes that domestic brands are gaining ground, with a "70-30" split between domestic and international brands in the market [12] - The rise of e-commerce has led to increased opportunities for international brands, with many entering the Chinese market through platforms like Tmall [8][12]