国货高端美妆龙头渠道调研-反馈 20251114 摘要 毛戈平公司的核心优势在于其成熟的会员体系和会员运营，这对同店增长起到 了重要作用。今年上半年，同店增速约为 18%，预计下半年仍能保持两位数以 上的同比增长。在国内商场业态中，这种同店增速表现优于大部分化妆品品牌 甚至其他类型品牌。这背后有两个核心驱动因素：一是线上渠道拓展带来的新 客流量，通过线上引流到线下消费；二是通过各种会员服务升级来延续老客购 买频次和粘性。例如，美妆沙龙活动不仅巩固高端客户粘性，还能带来显著销 售额。此外，公司还不断升级线下门店，包括位置调整和面积扩张，从而提升 同店业绩。 毛戈平在品类拓展方面有哪些进展？ 在品类拓展方面，2025 年毛戈平推出了香氛产品，并稳步推进护肤品类的发 展。香水产品顺应市场需求变化，特别是 00 后消费者对香水使用频次较高， 有望抓住这一风口。目前公司推出的两个系列香水产品已显示出一定市场接受 度。护肤品类方面，公司最大的单品奢华鱼子面膜表现良好，同时一些新单品 如黑霜也开始显现销售潜力。这些新品虽然目前占比不高，但它们决定了公司 未来几年的持续增长潜力。 毛戈平如何利用线上渠道拉新用户并转化到线下消 ...

今年（2025 年）双十一期间，美妆板块整体表现较为强劲，抖音平台同比增 长达到 20%，天猫平台的实际增长数据约为 8%。尽管天猫的增长略低于预期， 但整体美妆板块仍超过 10%的增长，基本达到了平台的预期。具体到品牌层面， 国际品牌和新国货线表现尤为突出。国际品牌中高端和轻奢线的增长普遍超过 10%，许多品牌甚至达到了 20%以上。而国货品牌中，自然堂、百雀羚、林 清轩、谷雨等非上市公司表现优异，但上市公司中仅毛戈平的数据超过 50%的 增长。 双十一期间，各大电商平台上的订单数量和客单价有何变化？流量结构如何？ 双 11 美护大盘&高端品牌趋势分析专家会 20251116 摘要 2025 年双十一期间，国际品牌在淘天平台表现强劲，中高端和轻奢线 增长普遍超过 10%，部分品牌甚至超过 20%，主要受益于八八 VIP 用 户增长，贡献占比高达 65%，其中国际品牌占比 70%-90%。 国货品牌在抖音平台的预算投入较高，但整体表现逊于国际品牌。自然 堂、百雀羚、林清轩、谷雨等非上市公司表现优异，而上市公司中仅毛 戈平增长超过 50%。 国际品牌在淘系费率约为 15%-20%，抖音约为 25%；国货在抖音费 ...

Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, announced that it has surpassed 60 million registered members as of November 8, 2025, achieving its annual target 50 days ahead of schedule [1] - The founder and chairman, Yang Mingchao, emphasized the importance of the membership system for future development during the mid-year performance communication in August, setting a goal to reach 60 million members by the end of this year [1] Summary by Categories - **Membership Growth** - Guoquan's cumulative registered members have exceeded 60 million [1] - The target was achieved 50 days earlier than planned [1] - **Strategic Importance** - Yang Mingchao highlighted the membership system as a key component for the company's future growth [1] - The goal of reaching 60 million members was set for the end of this year [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth for Q3 2025, with revenues estimated between 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8% [1] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be between 5.09 billion to 5.29 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 18.5% to 23.2% [1] - Core operating profit for Q3 is expected to be between 65 million to 75 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 44.4% to 66.7% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The core operating profit margin for the period is estimated to be around 3.5% to 3.7%, which is an improvement of 0.7 to 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better store operations [1] - The company aims to exceed its target of opening over 1,000 new stores in 2025, with 361 new stores added in Q3 alone, bringing the total to 10,761 stores by the end of September [1] Market Expansion and Product Diversification - The company is enhancing customer loyalty through an optimized membership system, expecting to surpass 60 million members in the second half of the year [1] - The product range has expanded significantly, with the revenue share from barbecue rising from less than 5% to 22% over four years, alongside the introduction of eight product categories to meet home dining needs [2] - The SKU count has increased from 66 in 2020 to 412 in 2024, with 95% being self-developed, showcasing a strong focus on supply chain control and cost optimization [2] Financial Confidence and Future Projections - The company has demonstrated confidence in its growth by executing three share buyback announcements since 2024, with each buyback not exceeding 100 million HKD [2] - The management plans to distribute dividends of 200 million and 190 million RMB for the full year of 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, while maintaining a healthy cash flow [2] - Revenue growth is projected at 22.7% and 20.3% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively, with net profit growth expected to be 85.6% and 26.3% for the same periods [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.17 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust revenue growth of approximately RMB 1.85 billion to RMB 2.05 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8% [1]. - The total revenue for the first three quarters is estimated to be between RMB 5.09 billion and RMB 5.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 18.5% to 23.2% [1]. - Core operating profit for Q3 is projected to be between RMB 65 million and RMB 75 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 44.4% to 66.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company added 361 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 10,761 stores by the end of September, an increase of 611 stores compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The company aims to exceed its target of opening over 1,000 new stores for the year, particularly during the peak hot pot sales season in Q4 [2]. Product Diversification - The company has successfully developed barbecue as a second growth category, increasing its revenue contribution from less than 5% to 22% in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The product range has expanded to cover eight categories, including beverages and single-serving meals, with a significant increase in SKU count from 66 in 2020 to 412 in 2024, with 95% being self-developed [3]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently repurchased shares since 2024, with each repurchase not exceeding HKD 100 million, indicating management's confidence in the company's future [4]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of RMB 200 million and RMB 190 million for the full year of 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively, while maintaining a healthy cash flow [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 22.7% and 20.3% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively, with net profit growth projected at 85.6% and 26.3% for the same periods [4].

Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with young consumers opting for camping and car sleeping instead of traditional hotel stays, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and spending patterns [1][3][35] - Despite an increase in domestic travel during the holiday period, average per capita spending has decreased, indicating a trend towards consumption downgrade [4][10] Group 1: Holiday Spending and Hotel Occupancy - During the recent holiday, the average occupancy rate for hotels in major cities was only 58%, with economy hotels dropping below 50% [3][10] - The average per capita spending during the holiday was 911 yuan, translating to less than 114 yuan per person per day, a 13% decrease compared to the previous year [4][10] - The drastic price hikes in economy hotels have made them unaffordable for many, leading to a preference for camping as a more cost-effective option [5][9] Group 2: Price Trends in the Hotel Industry - Prices for economy hotels have surged, with some hotels seeing increases of over 30%, while luxury hotels have maintained more stable pricing [8][9] - For example, the price of a room at a budget hotel increased from 202 yuan to 930 yuan within a few days, highlighting the volatility in pricing during peak travel times [7][9] - The disparity in pricing strategies has created a situation where luxury hotels are perceived as more cost-effective compared to economy options [9][10] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Structural Changes - The hotel industry is facing a structural crisis, with both high-end and budget hotels experiencing declining demand [11][16] - Major hotel groups have reported negative growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR), indicating widespread financial strain across the sector [12][16] - The reliance on franchise models is being challenged as operational costs for franchisees rise, leading to potential instability in the business model [19][20] Group 4: Adaptation and Transformation Strategies - Hotel groups are increasingly looking to diversify their revenue streams by enhancing supply chain efficiencies and developing retail operations [22][24] - For instance, a hotel group has successfully integrated retail sales into its business model, significantly boosting revenue from non-hotel services [24][26] - The focus is shifting towards building direct relationships with consumers through loyalty programs and personalized experiences, moving away from dependence on online travel agencies (OTAs) [27][31] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current trends indicate a fundamental transformation in the hotel industry, where success will depend on the ability to integrate various services and create emotional connections with consumers [35] - The industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes supply chain efficiency and customer loyalty over traditional metrics like room count and location [35]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing emphasis on "private domain" strategies among consumer brands, particularly in their IPO filings, indicating a shift towards deeper user asset management and digitalization in the consumer industry [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Eight Horse Tea has built the largest private domain traffic pool in the tea industry with "26 million members + 40.9 million online fans," maintaining its position as the top seller in the Tmall Oolong tea category for ten consecutive years [2]. - Encountering Small Noodles has developed a digital system that has accumulated 22.1 million members, achieving a remarkable repurchase rate of 44.5%, significantly higher than the average of 30% in the Chinese fast food industry [2][9]. - Both brands demonstrate that when member assets and repurchase data form a closed loop, private domain operations evolve from a cost center to a profit engine, justifying higher valuations in the capital market for digitally advanced companies [2]. Group 2: Digitalization and Technology - Both brands focus on self-developed digitalization as a core pillar, transforming digitalization from a cost item to a growth item through quantifiable investments and technological restructuring [3][4]. - Eight Horse Tea integrates digitalization across the entire production and supply chain, with significant investments in smart production lines and a commitment to allocate 10% of its IPO proceeds to digital enhancements [3]. - Encountering Small Noodles emphasizes "smart digitalization," utilizing a standardized system to quantify traditional cooking processes, thereby improving operational efficiency and reducing costs [4]. Group 3: Private Domain Operations and User Value - Eight Horse Tea creates a "city living room" experience to enhance high-end tea culture and social interactions, achieving a revenue contribution of 64.2% from offline stores, while online channels have accumulated over 40.9 million fans [6][8]. - Encountering Small Noodles focuses on 24-hour operations in transportation hubs, with nighttime revenue accounting for 35% of total sales, and employs a data platform to enhance user engagement and retention [7][9]. - Both brands illustrate that effective private domain operations require not only diverse traffic sources but also unified data management and scenario-based applications to maximize customer value [7]. Group 4: Membership Systems and Lifecycle Management - Membership is a recurring theme in the filings of both brands, emphasizing the importance of aligning customer segments with industry scenarios to enhance profitability [8]. - Eight Horse Tea's membership strategy targets high-end consumers, resulting in a net profit margin increase from 9.1% in 2022 to 11.3% in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 224 million yuan in 2024 [8]. - Encountering Small Noodles has established a benchmark in the fast food industry with a membership scale of 22.1 million and a significant order volume, supported by a digital system that enhances product quality and customer experience [9][10]. Group 5: Market Positioning and Valuation Logic - Eight Horse Tea targets the high-end tea market, leveraging a "full-channel experience + premium membership" strategy to create brand value, with valuation centered on the depth of membership assets [11]. - Encountering Small Noodles focuses on the fast food market, achieving scale through "standardized efficiency + prepaid membership," with valuation driven by store growth and profitability [11]. - The growth data from both brands provide differentiated reference samples for consumer service brands transitioning from regional operations to capital markets [11].

Core Insights - Huazhu Group's brand, Qianxi, is accelerating its expansion in Southeast Asia, with recent signings in Kuala Lumpur and Phnom Penh, marking a significant step in its overseas strategy [1][2] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming a testing ground for domestic hotel brands seeking global presence, driven by increasing business travel and tourism from China [5][6] Group 1: Qianxi's Southeast Asia Expansion - Qianxi has signed three new hotels in Southeast Asia, with locations in Kuala Lumpur and Phnom Penh, targeting business and leisure travelers [1][2] - The Kuala Lumpur hotel will feature 101 rooms and is set to open in Q4 2026, while the Phnom Penh hotel aims to become a benchmark in the CBD area, opening in Q2 2026 [2] - The strategy involves analyzing local market trends and consumer demands, indicating a shift from mere acquisitions to a more nuanced approach in overseas expansion [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The Southeast Asian tourism landscape is changing, with Vietnam becoming the top destination for Chinese tourists, receiving 3.5 million visitors in 2025, a 44% increase [5] - Recent visa policies in Southeast Asia have facilitated travel for Chinese tourists, enhancing the potential customer base for Qianxi hotels [6] - The growing demand for quality accommodations is driven by a young population, with over 50% under 30 years old, and a rapidly expanding middle class [7][8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Approaches - Domestic hotel groups are increasingly looking to Southeast Asia as a new growth market amid intense competition in the domestic market [9][15] - The first wave of expansion involved partnerships and franchise models, while the current phase sees more direct investments and brand establishment [9][10] - Companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu are diversifying their brand offerings and leveraging local partnerships to enhance their market presence [11][12] Group 4: Technological and Operational Innovations - The integration of digital systems and localized operations is becoming a competitive advantage for hotel groups entering Southeast Asia [14] - Huazhu's establishment of a global headquarters in Singapore aims to streamline operations and adapt to local market needs [3] - The focus on a robust membership system and localized marketing strategies is essential for building brand recognition and customer loyalty in new markets [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan continues to enhance its membership benefits, focusing on user experience and emotional connection, while maintaining a free membership model to attract a broader user base [3][4][6][14]. Membership Benefits Upgrade - As of September 30, Meituan's membership benefits have been upgraded, introducing new features centered around "priority queuing" and "worry-free services" [4][10]. - New benefits include "1-on-1 urgent delivery," "airport fast track," and "priority car dispatch," aimed at reducing waiting times for members [4][11]. - The "Membership Center" has been revamped for easier access to benefits and activities, enhancing user experience [4][14]. Membership System Characteristics - Meituan's membership system, launched on March 31, aims to cover various local lifestyle scenarios without charging fees, differentiating it from other platforms that focus on high-net-worth users [6][7][14]. - The system is designed to create a sense of belonging and recognition among users, moving beyond just cost-saving features [15][16]. User Engagement and Recognition - The emotional connection with the membership system has strengthened, as evidenced by user engagement metrics, with over 10 million users achieving membership level upgrades by Q2 2025 [15][16]. - The introduction of exclusive experiences, such as concert viewing benefits, has further enhanced user loyalty and social sharing [15][16]. Business Implications - The membership system serves as a foundational infrastructure for Meituan and its merchants, allowing for refined user segmentation and targeted marketing strategies [18][20]. - By leveraging a large user base of 770 million, Meituan aims to help merchants optimize their marketing resources and reduce price competition [19][20]. Future Outlook - Meituan's membership system is envisioned as a "super interface" that connects various lifestyle services, enhancing user engagement and driving cross-business sales [24][26]. - The long-term goal is to create a widely accepted membership card that offers discounts and benefits across multiple sectors, positioning Meituan as a leader in the local lifestyle market [26].

Core Insights - American Express has established a significant business moat by defining high-spending consumer groups, suggesting a potential market opportunity for Chinese companies like Meituan and Alibaba to replicate this model with their premium membership programs [1][15] - The concept of a "Chinese version of the black card" is emerging, as Meituan and Alibaba introduce membership systems that reward higher spending with more benefits, targeting high-value users [1][15] Group 1: Membership Comparison - The membership systems of Alibaba and Meituan primarily focus on spending amounts, which may inadvertently include "flashy spenders" who do not represent long-term valuable customers [4][5] - American Express's black card holders are not only high spenders but also possess significant assets and social resources, indicating that spending alone may not equate to true high net worth [3][5] Group 2: Data Utilization - Alibaba and Meituan have the advantage of comprehensive consumer data across various sectors, allowing for a more accurate reflection of a consumer's spending ability compared to a single credit card statement [6] - The platforms can refine their member selection process over time through accumulated data, enhancing the precision of their high-value customer identification [6] Group 3: Merchant Relationships - Concerns exist regarding whether Alibaba and Meituan can achieve the same pricing power with merchants as American Express, given their existing relationships with millions of businesses [6][8] - The collaboration model between Alibaba/Meituan and merchants is likely to be voluntary, where merchants offer exclusive benefits in exchange for access to high-value customers, rather than being forced to pay high fees [9][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The sensitivity of domestic merchants to costs poses challenges for implementing a high-fee model similar to American Express, as seen in past resistance to increased delivery fees [8] - The membership systems of Alibaba and Meituan are not intended to replace existing loyalty programs from airlines or hotels but rather to act as connectors that enhance the value of those memberships [13][11] Group 5: Future Potential - The lack of a robust credit card ecosystem in China presents an opportunity for internet platforms to fill this gap, with the potential to create a significant commercial value of $200 billion if they can establish trust and loyalty across various consumer scenarios [15][1]