晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】"自由现金流"洞见（二）：告别"勤奋的陷阱"：自由现金流策略 西部现金流策略股票池主要集中在机械/电子/化工/医药等新质生产力方向， 这些行业受益于"反内卷+跨境资本回流"，现金流都在快速修复。西部自由 现金流策略 18 年底以来累计上涨 244%，大幅跑赢红利策略；年初以来累 计上涨 38%，超额收益 10%以上，同时跑赢红利、wind 全 A 以及其他自由 现金流策略。 【有色金属】小金属及新材料行业 2026 年度投资策略（有色板块成长篇）： 小金属供给收紧筑底，AI 金属需求高增空间广 26 年怎么看？稀土：相比上一轮稀土周期，本轮稀土行情仍有较大预期空 间，预期在稀土供给收紧的背景下，26 年稀土供需格局会进一步紧缺； 钨——供需错配，26 年价格有望持续上涨；锑——供给格局偏脆弱，2026 年 锑价或迎向上突破；锡——供给端扰动，锡价 25 年底加速上涨。 【医药生物】纳微科技（688690.SH）深度报告：层析填料趋势向好，多产 品线协同构建色谱生态 盈利预测：预计 2025-2027 年公司实现营业收入 955 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in 2024 was stable, with a 5.8% increase in industrial added value for large-scale enterprises, and a 8.9% growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [15][16] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a profit increase of 24.5% in the smelting and rolling sector and 47.8% in the mining sector in the first four months of 2025 [15] - The non-ferrous metal industry index rose by 16.41% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming other sectors [16] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to rise due to multiple factors including weakened dollar credit, increased central bank purchases, and ongoing geopolitical risks [20][34] - In 2024, global central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold, accounting for 21% of total demand, with significant purchases from emerging market countries [23] - The demand for gold in investment increased by 25% in 2024, reaching 1,180 tons, with bar investment demand growing significantly [23][30] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, including rare earths and tungsten, is crucial for national defense, economic development, and technological advancement, with China leading in production and reserves [50][62] - The supply of rare earths is expected to tighten due to export controls and limited quota increases, while demand from new energy vehicles and robotics continues to grow [50][67] - The tungsten market is projected to remain strong due to increasing demand from photovoltaic and nuclear fusion sectors, despite tightening supply [50][67] Group 4 - The aluminum industry faces rigid supply constraints with a production cap of 45 million tons, while demand is expected to grow in the new energy sector [4][18] - The demand for aluminum in the automotive and new energy sectors is on the rise, with significant increases in production for battery foils and structural components [4][18] - The copper market is experiencing a shift in demand dynamics, with traditional demand weakening while new energy applications drive growth [5][8]