Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities arising from the increase in domestic copper resource reserves, particularly noting the significant resource addition by Yulong Copper in Tibet, which adds 131.42 thousand tons of copper and 10.77 thousand tons of molybdenum [7][11]. - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain a strong performance due to optimistic macroeconomic expectations, despite a slight price correction [7][11]. - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed investor preferences, with gold demand increasing while silver demand shows a decline [7][11]. - The tungsten supply remains tight, with prices increasing, and there is a rising expectation for restocking post-holiday [7][11]. - The steel industry is poised for growth with new government policies aimed at stabilizing the sector, benefiting from infrastructure investments [8][11]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at 13,000 and 100,770 USD/ton respectively, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and 0.6% [7]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is in negative territory, indicating tight supply [7]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, up by 9.65 percentage points week-on-week [7]. Aluminum - LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices were reported at 3,147 and 23,925 USD/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0% and 1.7% [7]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased to 60.2% [7]. Precious Metals - SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices were reported at 1,032.3 CNY/gram and 4,601.1 USD/ounce, with week-on-week increases of 2.6% and 1.8% [7]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 21.1 tons week-on-week, indicating a preference for gold among overseas investors [7]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 507,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 4.3% [7]. - The rare earth industry is experiencing tight supply, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide increasing [7]. Steel - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at 3,163 and 3,315 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans for a new round of growth stabilization policies for the steel industry [8].

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].