Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market and Steel Industry Industry Overview - The coking coal market has experienced a significant price decline of approximately 50% from early 2024 to mid-2025, influenced by domestic production growth and the US-China tariff dispute [1][2][4] - Coking coal prices saw a slight rebound due to pre-holiday stockpiling demands, but the overall trend remains downward [1][2] Key Points on Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Domestic coking coal production increased by nearly 5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching approximately 280 million tons [4] - Import volumes decreased, particularly from Mongolia and the US, while imports from Russia and Australia partially offset these reductions [4] - Coking coal prices weakened in the first half of 2025 due to structural inventory issues in the coal and steel interaction, with upstream inventories rising while downstream inventories fell [7] Price Trends and Influencing Factors - By June 2025, coking coal futures dropped to around 700 RMB/ton, with spot prices at approximately 1,300 RMB/ton, reflecting a 50% decline from earlier prices [2] - A rebound in prices was noted starting June, attributed to increased stockpiling by downstream enterprises and favorable steel production profits [8] - Current coking coal inventories are slightly better than the previous year, with expectations for stable or slightly rising prices in the fourth quarter due to stockpiling demands [14] Steel Industry Dynamics - China's crude steel production saw a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, but some data indicates production levels remain above last year's figures [5] - Steel exports reached approximately 80 million tons in the first seven months of 2025, with significant growth in exports to emerging markets despite reduced exports to the US [6] - The steel industry's growth stabilization plan aims to adjust production based on market demand, which may impact coking coal demand [10][11] Company Performance and Market Outlook - Major mining companies like Lu'an Huanneng have shown strong performance due to high spot market sensitivity, while others like Pingmei Shenma have lagged but are adjusting prices closer to spot levels [17][18] - Huabei Mining is noted for its growth potential, with upcoming projects expected to contribute to profitability [19] - The overall outlook for coking coal prices in the second half of 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for stable prices unless production exceeds forecasts or stockpiling demand falls short [15][16] Conclusion - The coking coal market is currently facing challenges due to price declines and inventory issues, but there are signs of recovery driven by stockpiling and steel production profitability. The steel industry's strategic adjustments may further influence coking coal demand and pricing dynamics in the coming months.

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][14][15] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][17][18] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of the steel industry's stable growth plan has limited positive effects. The overall steel market shows a trend of loose supply and demand, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are neutrally bearish, with the market returning to a weak fundamental logic after the cooling of macro - sentiment [1][6][7]. - Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and there is a risk of a mid - term correction due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Coking coal production recovers slowly, downstream replenishment slows down, and there is a downward risk in the mid - term [1][14][15]. - The supply and demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon tend to be loose, and the market sentiment is weak, with a focus on short - selling operations [1][17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar** - The stable growth plan of the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand margin. After the policy is implemented, there is a risk of continued decline [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3205, 3246, and 3129 respectively, with increases of 33, 32, and 18 [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand show a loose trend. There is a mid - term decline risk under the weak fundamentals of steel [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3372, 3380, and 3385 respectively, with increases of 31, 32, and 36 [2]. Iron Ore - Hot metal production has decreased, steel mills have completed replenishment, and port inventories have increased. The shipment of foreign mines has increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally bearish. After the cooling of macro - sentiment, trading returns to fundamentals, and ore prices fluctuate weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - Spot prices have started the first round of cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, production restrictions in some areas have led to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains at a high level. There is a mid - term correction risk due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1672.5, 1760.0, and 1583.5 respectively [9]. Coking Coal - Affected by the parade, safety supervision in some areas has been upgraded, and coking coal production recovers slowly. Although hot metal production remains at a high level, downstream replenishment has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The stable growth policy of the steel industry mainly focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive effects, and there is a mid - term downward risk [1][14][15]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1175.0, 1222.0, and 1020.0 respectively [13]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Manganese Silicon** - Supply and demand tend to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five - year high. The replenishment of steel mills has ended, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel tenders at the end of the month. The total shipment of the three major countries is 83.53 million tons, a decrease of 20.96 million tons month - on - month, mainly from South Africa. Arrivals have increased slightly, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. The cost side still has some support, and short - selling is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5842, 2888, and 5734 respectively [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals tend to be loose. Enterprise inventories have decreased month - on - month, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decrease, but the absolute level is still high, with relatively large inventory pressure. Short - selling on rallies is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5604, 5736, and 5426 respectively [16].