焦煤国内平衡表上半年回顾&下半年如何看待钢焦互动？ 20250925 摘要 2024 年初至 2025 年 6 月，焦煤期货和现货价格均大幅下跌约 50%， 尽管期间有小幅反弹，但整体呈现下行趋势，主要受国内产量增长和中 美关税博弈影响。近期因国庆补库需求，价格再次小幅上涨。 2025 年 1-7 月，国内焦煤产量同比增长近 5%，但进口量同比减少，特 别是来自蒙古和美国的进口量下降，尽管通过增加从俄罗斯和澳大利亚 的进口部分对冲了减量。 2025 年 1-8 月，中国粗钢产量数据存在争议，但出口量同比增长显著， 主要转向非洲、中东和南美等新兴市场，抵消了对美国出口的减少。 2025 年上半年焦煤价格走弱，主要由于下游煤炭与钢铁互动环节中的 库存结构性问题，上游矿山库存增加，而下游独立焦企和钢企库存下降， 企业采取现用现采购模式。 6 月份以来焦煤价格上涨，主要原因是下游企业补库需求增加，导致矿 山端库存下滑，以及钢铁生产利润较好，但近期部分钢材品种利润有所 回落。 Q&A 2025 年上半年国内焦煤市场的整体走势如何？ 2025 年上半年，国内焦煤市场经历了显著的价格波动。回顾 2024 年，由于 山西煤矿 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][14][15] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][17][18] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of the steel industry's stable growth plan has limited positive effects. The overall steel market shows a trend of loose supply and demand, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are neutrally bearish, with the market returning to a weak fundamental logic after the cooling of macro - sentiment [1][6][7]. - Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and there is a risk of a mid - term correction due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Coking coal production recovers slowly, downstream replenishment slows down, and there is a downward risk in the mid - term [1][14][15]. - The supply and demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon tend to be loose, and the market sentiment is weak, with a focus on short - selling operations [1][17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar** - The stable growth plan of the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand margin. After the policy is implemented, there is a risk of continued decline [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3205, 3246, and 3129 respectively, with increases of 33, 32, and 18 [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand show a loose trend. There is a mid - term decline risk under the weak fundamentals of steel [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3372, 3380, and 3385 respectively, with increases of 31, 32, and 36 [2]. Iron Ore - Hot metal production has decreased, steel mills have completed replenishment, and port inventories have increased. The shipment of foreign mines has increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally bearish. After the cooling of macro - sentiment, trading returns to fundamentals, and ore prices fluctuate weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - Spot prices have started the first round of cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, production restrictions in some areas have led to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains at a high level. There is a mid - term correction risk due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1672.5, 1760.0, and 1583.5 respectively [9]. Coking Coal - Affected by the parade, safety supervision in some areas has been upgraded, and coking coal production recovers slowly. Although hot metal production remains at a high level, downstream replenishment has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The stable growth policy of the steel industry mainly focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive effects, and there is a mid - term downward risk [1][14][15]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1175.0, 1222.0, and 1020.0 respectively [13]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Manganese Silicon** - Supply and demand tend to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five - year high. The replenishment of steel mills has ended, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel tenders at the end of the month. The total shipment of the three major countries is 83.53 million tons, a decrease of 20.96 million tons month - on - month, mainly from South Africa. Arrivals have increased slightly, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. The cost side still has some support, and short - selling is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5842, 2888, and 5734 respectively [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals tend to be loose. Enterprise inventories have decreased month - on - month, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decrease, but the absolute level is still high, with relatively large inventory pressure. Short - selling on rallies is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5604, 5736, and 5426 respectively [16].