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中国宏观数据点评:实体经济数据11月增速继续放缓,明年年初政策刺激可期
SPDB International· 2025-12-15 09:15
Economic Growth and Trends - In November, the growth rate of the real economy continued to slow, with demand weakening faster than supply[1] - The expected economic growth for this year remains around 5%, supported by better-than-expected import and export data[1][6] - The central economic work conference set a target for next year's economic growth at approximately 5% with moderate policy stimulus anticipated[1][6] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, significantly below market expectations[2] - Retail sales of goods decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 1.0%, with notable declines in jewelry (-29.1 percentage points to 8.5%) and automotive sales (-1.7 percentage points to -8.3%)[2][10] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of -2.3%[3] - Real estate development investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -15.9%, and new construction area dropped by 0.7 percentage points to -20.5%[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1 percentage point to -1.1%[3] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% in November, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices[5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, aligning with market expectations[4][20]
国家统计局最新发布!
证券时报· 2025-06-09 08:17
6月9日,国家统计局发布数据显示,5月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比下降0.2%,同比下降0.1%;工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比下降 0.4%,降幅与上月相同,同比下降3.3%,降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 5月份"CPI-PPI"同比剪刀差扩大,反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧,但企业数据也反映部分行业供需关系有所改善,结构性特征更加明显,如宾馆住宿价 格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为,5月CPI环比由涨转降,持平于历史同期平均水平,而从PPI来看,输入性价格下行压力依然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来,CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%,环比看,5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍,能源价格是拖累CPI同比和环比表现的主要因素。从同比看,5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%,降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分 点,影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点。从环比看,能源价格下降1.7%,影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点,占CPI总降幅近七成。 而对CPI形成支撑的因素则是提振消费相关政策持续显效。同比看,扣除能源的 ...