证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 经济放缓，市场强劲 报告摘要 海外宏观：美国经济压力显现，欧洲继续复苏。美国就业市场大幅降温。制造 业景气度下滑，居民消费信心下降，这些重要数据共同反映出美国经济显现出 一定压力。欧洲经济则延续了复苏趋势。 登记编码：S0950523100001 ：13817489814 ：youchunye1@wkzq.com.cn 国内宏观：7 月经济放缓。内需较为疲软，消费下行速度较快且下半年压力仍 存；投资大幅下降，未来基建投资可能有一定支撑，但总投资增长动力不足； 通缩压力仍然较大，企业盈利面临困境。外需相对较强，但是贸易政策的不确 定性仍大，出口增长的持续性存疑。我们认为下半年经济会面临压力，出台新 一轮较大规模刺激政策的必要性较强。 风险提示： 1、中美贸易谈判出现反复； 2、消费及出口出现快速下行。 政策：不确定性继续回落，关税与货币政策路径更清晰。中美短期大幅加征的 尾部风险显著下降，跨境贸易与补库行为获得喘息窗口。中国方面，7 月宏观 数据偏弱，三季度政策窗口临近。我们认为政策将按照年初计划继续推进，但 是不排除 8 月宏观数据延续 7 月下行态势，9 月出台增量政策的可能。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, highlighting a **weakening in domestic economic activities** as of July 2025, with a widening **supply-demand imbalance** [3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Momentum**: Economic growth momentum softened in July, with industrial and services production growing at **5.7% to 5.8% YoY**. However, retail sales slowed to **3.7% YoY**, marking the lowest rate of the year, and investment growth turned negative at **-5.2% YoY**, the lowest since COVID-19 [3][10][17]. - **Demand Weakness**: The demand indicators deteriorated sharply, particularly in the goods sector, with retail sales and investment showing significant declines. The property sector also weakened further [3][10][11]. - **Weather Impact**: Adverse weather events, including typhoons and heavy rains, negatively impacted infrastructure investment, despite ongoing mega-projects [4][10]. - **Policy Response**: Policymakers are expected to implement incremental support measures, focusing on property and investment, including a potential **10bps rate cut**, **50bps RRR cut**, and a **RMB500 billion quasi-fiscal injection** in the second half of 2025 [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Plans**: Major investment projects include a **RMB1.2 trillion mega-dam project** in Tibet and a railway connecting Xinjiang and Tibet, with expected investments exceeding **RMB300 billion** over five years [6]. - **Consumption Support**: New policies such as childcare subsidies (estimated at **RMB117 billion**) and interest rate subsidies for consumption loans are anticipated to support consumer spending [6]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Retail Sales**: Durables goods sales were supported by trade-in policies, but overall retail sales growth decelerated. Telecom equipment sales rose **14.9% YoY**, while auto sales contracted by **-1.5% YoY** [18][20]. - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI fell to **1.6% YoY YTD**, with negative growth across property, capex, and infrastructure investments [10][12]. - **Property Sector**: Property investment fell **17.2% YoY** in July, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector [11]. - **Austerity Measures**: The ongoing austerity policy continues to suppress consumption, particularly in the restaurant and beverage sectors, with restaurant revenue growing only **1.1% YoY** [20][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and the anticipated policy responses.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of policy stimulus. The overall risk appetite in the domestic market has increased, with short - term bullish sentiment for stocks and cautious optimism for commodities [2]. - The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term support has weakened. Black metals are expected to be weak in the short term, while non - ferrous metals and new energy metals show mixed trends. Energy and chemical products are likely to remain in a weak or narrow - range oscillation pattern. Agricultural products present complex supply - demand relationships and price trends [4][6][14][17]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US President announced significant progress with Russia, reducing global risk - aversion sentiment. US retail sales in July met expectations, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased. Domestically, July economic data slowed down and missed expectations. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy plan and the extension of the China - US tariff truce may boost consumption and reduce short - term tariff uncertainties [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like batteries, securities, and banks, the domestic stock market rose. With economic data underperforming and policy support, the short - term upward momentum has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, but beware of high - level corrections [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, precious metals oscillated weakly. Inflation data fluctuations and Fed policy uncertainties restricted the upside. Long - term prospects are positive due to monetary easing and central bank gold - buying demand [4]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The US expansion of steel and aluminum tariff scope is negative for steel billets and hot - rolled coils. Real - world demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and supply may decline further. A short - term weak - oscillation approach is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, prices rebounded slightly. With approaching important events, iron - water production may decline. Supply is under pressure, and prices may weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Manganese ore prices are rising, and some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and eager to resume production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is excessive, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [8][9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals - **Copper**: US PPI data exceeded expectations. Copper supply is expected to be stable, and domestic demand may weaken. The strong price trend may not last [10]. - **Aluminum**: The US expansion of aluminum tariffs affects global exports. Aluminum fundamentals are weakening, and mid - term upside is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term but have limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply may increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production is at a new high, raw - material support is strengthening, and inventory is shifting downstream. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production is increasing, inventory is high, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Production is expected to increase in August. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and attention should be paid to the August 19th photovoltaic enterprise symposium [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Russia talks had no substantial results. The oil market may face an oversupply situation in 2026. Short - term short positions are recommended, but beware of geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil prices are weakening, and asphalt prices are under pressure. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight supply situation in the short term and will oscillate until PTA device changes [14]. - **PTA**: Supply is restricted, demand is slightly increasing, and prices are supported but have limited upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both increase slightly, maintaining an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are driven down by sector resonance. Observe terminal orders for de - stocking [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, while the port market is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is slightly rising. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season restocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure persists, and demand shows signs of recovery. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The net short position of funds in the CBOT soybean market is increasing. A bumper harvest may be realized, but the export situation is uncertain. The price of 1000 cents per bushel is temporarily supported [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is rising in the short term, but the spot market is not following. The cost - driven logic may weaken [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Vegetable oil inventory is high and difficult to deplete, while soybean oil and palm oil show different trends. Consider the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage strategy [18]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with low trading activity and sufficient inventory in downstream enterprises. The futures market is sluggish [18]. - **Pigs**: Weekend spot prices were weak, but the decline has narrowed. Observe the performance during the late - August consumption peak [18][19].

煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应：供给收缩预期扰动 ◆ 4、观点: ➢ 近期焦煤再度成为市场关注热点，主要系源自前期关于能源局发布的一则通知，对于八个主要产区的煤矿开展核查工作，炒作核心在于前期煤矿是否存在生产计划 不合理的情况，即单月产量不能超过公告产能的10%。但以第三方资讯商测算口径为准，主要煤炭生产省份超产相对较少，仅新疆在6月原煤产量有出现超产情况。 所以就近期煤焦盘面价格所呈现出的上涨或更多来自于情绪宏观扰动为主。从7月1号反内卷首次被提及以来，包括上周五工信部出台的文件，反复在强化后续相关 行业相关政策落地的可能，吹风会的频繁召开也是进一步地加强了市场信心。此外，从基本面供需角度来看同样给予了价格上涨的必要条件，一方面国内供应受政 策约束强化以及安检形势仍存的影响，焦煤产量继6月煤矿安全生产月之后整体恢复较为缓慢，另一方面随着终端盈利能力同步增强，下游及贸易 ...

⿊⾊：宏观情绪暂时降温，⿊⾊⼩幅回落 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-16 宏观情绪暂时降温，⿊⾊⼩幅回落 6⽉宏观数据表现尚可，强刺激政策预期弱化，中央城市会议⼯作表 述未超预期，情绪暂时降温。产业本⾝⽭盾不显著，盘⾯拉涨刺激中 下游环节补库推动现货价格跟涨形成共振。铁⽔后续仍有回升预期， 焦煤市场情绪持续转好，尽管煤矿已开始复产，但库存正向下游转 移，流动性回暖。铁矿发运回落，港⼝微幅去库。整体⽽⾔，基本⾯ 变化不⼤，宏观⻛向主导淡季价格，预计⾼位震荡运⾏。 6月宏观数据表现尚可，强刺激政策预期弱化，中央城市会议工作表 述未超预期，情绪暂时降温。产业本身矛盾不显著，盘面拉涨刺激中 下游环节补库推动现货价格跟涨形成共振。铁水后续仍有回升预期， 焦煤市场情绪持续转好，尽管煤矿已开始复产，但库存正向下游转 移，流动性回暖。铁矿发运回落，港口微幅去库。整体而言，基本面 变化不大，宏观风向主导淡季价格，预计高位震荡运行。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运微降，45港口到港量回升，符合预 期；需求端钢企盈利小幅改善，钢企铁水下降，同比保持高位。本期 由于到港 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong tea beverage sector has seen a collective rise, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Cha Bai Dao (13.54%), Gu Ming (7.88%), and Nai Xue's Tea (6.58%) [2][3] - Over the past five trading days, Nai Xue's Tea has experienced a cumulative increase of 35%, while Gu Ming and Cha Bai Dao have both risen over 16% [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in tea beverage stocks is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including subsidies from delivery platforms, the arrival of the summer consumption peak, and government consumption subsidies [4] - Major delivery platforms like Alibaba and Meituan have launched significant promotional campaigns, offering various discount coupons that have led to increased sales for tea beverage stores [4][5] - The summer heat has driven consumer demand for refreshing tea beverages, with top brands like Nai Xue's Tea and Cha Bai Dao reporting strong sales, including over 700,000 cups sold of Cha Bai Dao's lychee series since mid-June [5] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the tea beverage industry is poised for a new consumption peak driven by a combination of platform subsidies, seasonal benefits, and policy incentives [6] - Huaxin Securities highlights that the tea beverage sector, characterized by stable output, low average spending, and high consumption frequency, stands to benefit significantly from the current competitive landscape [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has led to significant volatility in crude oil-related products, while the soda ash market remains weak with an unfavorable outlook for the future [1] Macro Factors - The recent rise in crude oil prices does not impact soda ash costs, leaving soda ash unaffected by the upward trend in energy prices [1] - Financial and real estate data show no positive highlights, with national real estate development investment from January to May 2025 at 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and construction area at 625,020 thousand square meters, down 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The market's anticipated monetary and fiscal support has not materialized, leading to expectations of restrained future stimulus policies [1] Micro Factors - As of June 23, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from the previous week, representing a 1.69% rise and an 84.19% increase year-on-year [1] - The weekly production of soda ash is expected to remain above 700,000 tons post-June, indicating significant supply pressure with limited maintenance support [1] - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a reduction in production, negatively impacting the demand for soda ash, while the rebound in float glass prices is based on supply tightening expectations, which is also unfavorable for soda ash demand [1] Future Outlook - The fundamental outlook for soda ash remains weak, with no significant rebound or reversal expected in the short to medium term [1] - Attention should be paid to potential policy stimuli on the macro level and unplanned maintenance on the micro level; otherwise, the oversupply situation for soda ash is likely to continue [1] - It is suggested to monitor opportunities for hedging or arbitrage when soda ash futures prices rebound to the cost line of ammonia-soda enterprises [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing limited fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing stability despite 2,921 stocks declining and 9 hitting the limit down [1] - The core market players are primarily concentrated in heavyweight stocks like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with major support from state-owned entities such as Huijin, leading to a stable market environment [3][6] - The current trading environment is characterized by a lack of significant selling pressure, as major institutional players hold substantial positions in heavyweight stocks, making it difficult for other sectors to drive the market down [4][6] Group 2 - The market is entering a phase of dull competition, with participants waiting for financial policy changes, particularly in real estate and interest rates, to stimulate movement [6][8] - The performance of individual stocks, especially in the technology and small-cap sectors, remains active, while the overall index movements are less relevant to retail investors' profitability [6][8] - The potential for a significant upward movement in the index exists, but many investors may not benefit from it, as their individual stocks may not recover to previous highs [8]

焦煤在今年（2025 年）的表现如何？ 弘则研究 黑色壹周谈 - 抢跑的负反馈， 淡季的弱现实？ 20250605 摘要 焦煤市场短期超跌反弹，但中长期基本面仍偏空，受制于供应过剩和需 求疲软。蒙古煤炭出口政策及国内矿产资源法调整带来短期情绪冲击， 但实际影响需持续观察。 铁矿石供需结构呈现供增需降态势，全球发运量维持高位，中国铁水产 量下降，钢厂持货意愿较差。澳巴季末冲量及高到港量可能推动铁矿石 价格跌破 90 美元。 螺纹钢产量环比减少，主要因电炉厂亏损减产，需求端受雨季影响持续 减少，库存累积预期增强。若无政策刺激，盘面反弹难以改变整体下行 趋势。 热卷产量因前期检修轧线复产而回升至接近去年峰值水平，厂库和社库 均呈现双增态势，预计 6 月份库存将缓慢累积，价格维持震荡下行。 钢厂螺纹钢仍有小幅毛利，热轧卷板利润稍高，现金流压力不大。高产 量、需求走弱及库存累积预期使得做空利润或看负反馈成为主要交易策 略。 Q&A 当前黑色商品市场的总体趋势如何？ 当前黑色商品市场处于一个漫长的降低波动率的寻底阶段。短期来看，行业矛 盾并不明显，需求虽偏弱但仍有韧性。然而，宏观驱动偏弱，市场对经济的悲 观预期使得黑色原 ...