交运行业2026年投资策略 航空盈利修复可期，航运绿色转型提速 西南证券研究院 交通运输研究团队 2026年1月 核心观点 1 航空：在美联储降息推动下，人民币兑美元汇率在2026年有望进一步提升，为航司带来汇兑收益，同时国 际原油价格在2026年继续下行，航司的燃油成本压力有望缓解。机队供给方面，发动机存在问题等原因导 致我国航司的运力扩张有限，需求方面，经济增长将驱动航空出行需求结构性增长，我们持续看好后续票价 及航司利润表现。重点推荐：南方航空、春秋航空、华夏航空。 公路：我国公路行业已进入成熟期，2024年我国高速公路总里程已超过美国居世界第一，随着公路建设投 资放缓和到期压力凸显，打破原有收费期限的新版收费公路管理条例或将出台。多种因素下，未来行业将呈 现改扩建、并购、业务多元化三大发展趋势。重点推荐：中原高速。 航运绿色甲醇：全球航运业向零排放能源转型势在必行，当前绿色甲醇整体技术成熟度较好，且减碳表现良 好成为市场一种主流选择。截至2025年11月，MI数据库追踪全球252个可再生甲醇项目，预计到2030年总 装机容量为4510万吨。到2030年，所有电制甲醇项目的总装机容量预计为2180万吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is expected to experience better-than-expected performance due to a rigid supply of oil tankers and an anticipated increase in oil demand driven by a production cycle starting in 2024 [1] Group 1: Oil Shipping - The capacity utilization rate in the oil shipping industry has significantly improved, with traditional energy showing resilience and a continued shift of refineries globally [1] - The Middle East to China VLCC freight rates exceeded $50,000 recently, with OPEC+ expected to increase production in April, leading to heightened shipowner sentiment [1][3] - The shadow fleet sanctions have tightened since the beginning of the year, contributing to a recovery in freight rates in the second half of 2024 [3] Group 2: Refined Oil Shipping - Recent improvements in refinery profitability have supported a rise in freight rate averages, with expectations for historical highs in the first half of 2024 [4] - The trend of refinery relocation is expected to continue, with demand growth anticipated to exceed expectations, helping to absorb new ship deliveries [4] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - The recovery in Australian shipments is driving a rebound in freight rates, with potential increases in mining production over the next two years likely to support market conditions [1]