据交通部，2025年1-5月全国主要港口外贸货物吞吐量同比增长2%，其中外贸集装箱吞吐量同比增长 8%，展现中国制造优势与出口韧性。1)大宗商品进口同比承压。1-6月铁矿和煤及褐煤进口同比分 别-3%/-11%;受益中东增产及油价下降，原油进口量同比增长1.4%。2)新三样出口继续保持高增。1-6月 电动车、太阳能电池、锂电池等出口货量同比增长分别达45%/53%/18%。3)美国/欧盟/东盟/非洲1-6月 出口金额同比分别同比-10%/3%/8%/13%，其中东盟与非洲较高增有效对冲美国关税摩擦影响。该行认 为，年内美线集装箱出口货量将继续受关税政策变化与美国经济消费影响，中长期贸易重构与东盟增长 有望持续，为亚洲内集运市场带来结构性机会。 风险提示 经济波动、关税、地缘形势、油价汇率、安全事故等。 油运：欧盟对俄实施第18轮制裁，制裁效果有待观察 国泰海通发布研报称，维持航空油运增持评级。暑运再迎客流高峰，近期预售票价有所下调，预售出票 及客座率上升。旺季博弈风险逐步释放，建议布局长逻辑。油运方面，欧盟对俄实施第18轮制裁，制裁 效果有待观察，若执行有效将有望利好合规市场供需。下半年原油增产效应值得期待。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, with expectations for a potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Transportation Market Dynamics - In January 2025, the U.S. imposed large-scale sanctions on Russian oil tankers, leading to a short-term spike in transportation rates. The compliance demand for crude oil transportation remained high, keeping rates elevated in Q1 2025 [2]. - By June 30, 2025, the BDTI composite index was reported at 984 points, a 15.4% increase from the beginning of the year, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE was at $29,300 per day, reflecting a 37.0% increase [2]. - The oil demand growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, with IEA projecting a growth of 720,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 740,000 barrels per day for 2026 [3]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Impact - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August 2025, contributing to a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day [3]. - The increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to be 1.4 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ will contribute an additional 400,000 barrels per day [3]. - The long-term outlook suggests that as non-OPEC+ countries gain market share, oil transportation demand from regions like West Africa, Brazil, the U.S., and Norway will continue to rise, potentially reshaping the oil transportation landscape [3]. Group 3: Recent Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.25%. The CSI 300 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50% [4]. - The transportation sector, particularly shipping, performed relatively well, with the shipping sub-sector rising by 1.91%, while the aviation sector faced a decline of 2.74% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [6] Core Insights - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, which is expected to positively impact oil transportation demand [1] - The oil transportation market is anticipated to tighten, with a projected increase in oil transportation demand of 0.8% in 2025, while capacity is expected to grow by only 0.7% [2] - The decline in oil prices is likely to improve the cost structure for airlines, potentially accelerating their profitability recovery [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The transportation sector has seen a decline in stock performance, with the CITIC transportation index down by 1.3% over the past three trading days [4][9] - The oil transportation segment is experiencing a "non-weak" seasonal trend, with spot rates remaining high despite a recent drop [2] 2. Oil Transportation - As of May 2, 2025, the BDTI index stands at 1085 points, reflecting a 5.0% decrease week-on-week [17] - VLCC rates are reported at $50,583 per day, down 3.0% from the previous week, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have also seen declines [17] 3. Airline and Airport Performance - In Q1 2025, domestic air passenger volume reached 166.93 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while international passenger volume surged by 34.0% [3] - Major airlines reported a total operating revenue of 147.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net loss of 2.4 billion yuan [3] 4. Freight and Logistics - In March 2025, the express delivery sector saw a 20.3% year-on-year increase in business volume, totaling 16.7 billion packages [65] - The express delivery revenue reached 124.6 billion yuan, marking a 10.4% increase compared to the previous year [65] 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in road, rail, and port industries, as well as logistics companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is expected to experience better-than-expected performance due to a rigid supply of oil tankers and an anticipated increase in oil demand driven by a production cycle starting in 2024 [1] Group 1: Oil Shipping - The capacity utilization rate in the oil shipping industry has significantly improved, with traditional energy showing resilience and a continued shift of refineries globally [1] - The Middle East to China VLCC freight rates exceeded $50,000 recently, with OPEC+ expected to increase production in April, leading to heightened shipowner sentiment [1][3] - The shadow fleet sanctions have tightened since the beginning of the year, contributing to a recovery in freight rates in the second half of 2024 [3] Group 2: Refined Oil Shipping - Recent improvements in refinery profitability have supported a rise in freight rate averages, with expectations for historical highs in the first half of 2024 [4] - The trend of refinery relocation is expected to continue, with demand growth anticipated to exceed expectations, helping to absorb new ship deliveries [4] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - The recovery in Australian shipments is driving a rebound in freight rates, with potential increases in mining production over the next two years likely to support market conditions [1]