江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落30年的秘密"，就在这八个行业里面。 低欲望社会，不等于没机会。 消费分级，需求迁移，才是最大的商业机遇。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二手经济 日本二手奢侈品市场，以大黑屋为代表，收入暴涨。 在中国，红布林、胖虎，同样业务大涨。 买不起爱马仕、LV，但抢着买二手。 年轻人不太生孩子，但可以给猫买高级的罐头。 日本 Inaba靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝（中宠）股价强劲。 诚实一口、凯锐思、疯狂小狗、伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、网易严选、卫仕等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以新瑞鹏为代表的宠物医院，以泰淘气为代表的宠物益生菌、保健品，都 大幅飙升。 宠物开支逆势增长，"毛孩子"才是真刚需。 第三，成人护理 日本尤妮佳，靠纸尿裤翻身。 日本成人纸尿裤市场规模，突破100亿美元。 但在日常消费品领域，闲鱼日活破亿，转转的GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 第二，宠物经济 第四，健康食品饮料 由于人口结构改变和健康意识崛起，让日本三得利无糖茶、明治无糖酸奶，以及众多功能饮 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities; instead, it presents new avenues for business growth [4]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards second-hand markets, with significant growth in platforms like Xianyu and Zhuanzhuan, indicating a rising demand for second-hand goods [6][9]. - The pet economy is booming, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong seeing strong sales as consumers prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][15]. - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in China, where products like adult diapers are expected to see significant growth due to an aging population [16][18]. - The beauty and wellness sectors are thriving, with products like collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices gaining popularity, reflecting a continued consumer focus on aesthetics [23]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are on the rise, with brands in camping and outdoor gear experiencing increased sales as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [24][30]. - The emotional economy is gaining traction, with products that provide comfort and joy, such as low-alcohol beverages, becoming increasingly popular [25][26]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, driven by younger generations who prefer convenience, leading to growth in frozen food and smart home appliances [29][31]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The article suggests that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," actually presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [33]. - The upcoming event, "Black Horse Consumption Rise," aims to provide insights into how Japanese and Chinese companies can thrive in a stock market era through product innovation and brand expansion [34][39]. - The importance of understanding consumer needs and market segmentation is highlighted, with successful companies focusing on niche markets and innovative product offerings [42]. - The article discusses the significance of global branding and the need for Chinese companies to build trust in international markets through effective storytelling and cultural adaptation [43][49].

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, with growth expected to slow down to approximately 3.0% by 2025 according to the IMF [2] - Eight industries are identified as resilient during economic downturns, drawing lessons from Japan's "lost 30 years" experience [2] Industry Analysis - **Japanese Economic Characteristics**: Japan's economy has been in decline since 1992, with growth rates fluctuating between 0-3%, and significant drops in stock and real estate prices [4] - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: Post-1992, Japanese household consumption exhibited a trend towards frugality, with no consecutive annual increases exceeding 1% until 2022 [4][6] - **Counter-Cyclical Industry Performance**: Beauty and caffeine-related products saw significant growth during Japan's economic downturn, with beauty products increasing by 45.9% and caffeine beverages by 127% from 1992 to 2022 [7][16] Demand Shifts - **Consumer Segmentation**: Different consumer groups exhibit varied spending behaviors based on income, age, and occupation, leading to new consumption demands [10] - **Demand Migration**: Consumers shifted from luxury to value-driven purchases during economic downturns, emphasizing practicality and price [11] - **Demand Triangle Model**: This model illustrates the core consumer needs during spending, highlighting the psychological aspects of consumer behavior [12] Resilient Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan has thrived, with significant growth potential in China, where the market is expected to reach over 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [17][20] - **Pet Economy**: The pet industry in Japan showed resilience during economic downturns, with China's market projected to exceed 1.15 trillion yuan by 2028 [21][24] - **Adult Care Industry**: Driven by an aging population, this sector is expected to see rapid growth, with China's market projected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2030 [25][28] - **Health Food and Beverage**: The market for health-oriented products is growing, with a focus on low-sugar options and functional beverages [29][31] - **Beauty Economy**: The medical beauty market is expanding rapidly, with projections indicating a market size of 700 billion yuan by 2031 [34][37] - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor market is expected to reach 300 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer interest in outdoor activities [41] - **Emotional Economy**: This sector is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025, reflecting a growing consumer focus on emotional well-being [46] - **Lazy Economy**: The market for convenience products is expected to surpass 5 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the demand for time-saving solutions [51] Comparative Market Insights - **Market Size Comparison**: The second-hand economy in China is approximately 150 billion yuan, significantly lower than Japan's 20-30% market penetration [54] - **Growth Potential**: The pet economy in China is robust, with a projected market size of 300 billion yuan, comparable to Japan's market [54] - **Future Trends**: Understanding these industries' growth logic and future trends will help identify new business opportunities in a seemingly sluggish economic environment [55]