转自：成都日报锦观 "最长春节假期"如何激活内需潜力 专家简介 毛杰 成都市社会科学院同城化（城乡融合）研究所副研究员 精彩观点: 1.时间资产的释放，不仅拉长了消费链条，更重塑了消费心理节奏，居民对服务品质、体验深度与情感价值的追求便自然跃升 2.挖掘乡村文旅价值，利用春节返乡潮，发展乡村民宿、农家乐、非遗体验，将"流量"变"留量"，让城市消费力在农村落地 3.必须跳出"假期依赖"，构建扩内需、促消费的长效机制。换言之，春节消费的"热"是表象，背后需以系统性制度供给支撑其"久" 编者按 作为首个实施9天连休的春节假期，2026年的春节不仅是法定节假日制度的优化，更是国家立足扩大内需战略基点打出的一张关键牌。 与以往的假期政策相比，这次春节假期消费有哪些突出特点，如何评估春节假期消费对全年消费市场的拉动作用？春节假期延长政策 能否成为进一步扩大内需、刺激消费的突破口？政府、企业、消费者三方应如何形成合力？本期《锦观智库》专访成都市社会科学院 同城化（城乡融合）研究所副研究员毛杰。 春节假期延长政策 是进一步扩大内需、刺激消费的有益尝试 锦观智库：2026年首次实施9天春节假期。这一政策调整在扩内需战略中具有怎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Business Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth, highlighting that a low-desire society does not equate to a lack of opportunities [4]. - The concept of consumption upgrading and demand migration is presented as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Second-Hand Economy - In the context of reduced spending on luxury goods, the second-hand economy is flourishing, with companies like "大黑屋" in Japan and "红布林" and "胖虎" in China seeing substantial revenue increases [6][7]. - The article notes that platforms like "闲鱼" and "转转" are experiencing significant user engagement and transaction volume growth [9][10]. Group 3: Pet Economy - The pet economy is highlighted as a growing sector, with young consumers spending on premium pet products despite having fewer children [12]. - Companies like "中宠" and various pet brands are witnessing strong sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards pet care [13][14][15]. Group 4: Adult Care Products - The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, showcasing the potential of the aging population as a significant economic driver [18][19]. - The article suggests that aging should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a burden, contributing to a multi-trillion dollar "sunset economy" [19]. Group 5: Health Food and Beverages - The rise in health consciousness and demographic changes are driving demand for sugar-free beverages and functional foods, with brands like "东方树叶" and "简醇" gaining traction in China [21][22]. Group 6: Beauty and Aesthetics - The beauty industry continues to thrive, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for beauty enhancements [23][24][26]. Group 7: Outdoor and Leisure Activities - The outdoor equipment market is growing, with brands like "凯乐石" and "骆驼" benefiting from increased consumer interest in outdoor activities [29][31]. - The article notes that even in economic downturns, consumers are willing to invest in experiences and leisure [32]. Group 8: Convenience and Time-Saving Products - The "lazy economy" is emerging, with increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time, reflecting a shift in consumer priorities towards convenience [39][40]. - The article posits that in a low-desire economy, time-saving solutions may hold greater commercial value than cost-saving measures [42].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin poised for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction in China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise, with companies like Jinbo Bio and U like seeing significant sales growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is booming, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek leisure activities [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and lifestyle brands, are gaining popularity, reflecting a dual consumer behavior of frugality and indulgence [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Brands like Anjijia and Kewotai are seeing steady growth [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - It suggests that the key to success in a low-desire society is to identify and capitalize on emerging trends and consumer needs, rather than retreating from the market [39].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, young consumers are increasingly spending on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [12][13][15][16]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, showcasing the potential of the aging population as a lucrative market segment [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changing demographics and rising health awareness have led to the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China, with brands like Suntory and Dongpeng gaining traction [21][22]. - **Beauty and Aesthetic Products**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that consumers prioritize personal care even in economic downturns [23][24][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands, are benefiting from increased interest in outdoor activities as a form of stress relief [29][31][32]. - **Convenience Economy**: The rise of frozen foods and smart home appliances reflects a shift towards convenience, with brands like Anjijia and Kewell seeing steady growth as consumers seek time-saving solutions [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend of reduced cooking time among younger generations has led to a preference for ready-to-eat meals and smart appliances that automate household tasks, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [39][40][42]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are significant opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. Companies that can identify and act on these opportunities are likely to emerge as winners [44].

2026年2月初，距离马年除夕夜仅剩不足两周，正是餐饮业一年中最忙碌的"黄金周"备战时点。然而， 在上海陆家嘴正大广场、北外滩来福士、东方滨江大酒店等核心地标，昔日灯火辉煌的"上海小南国"却 大门紧闭，。 这并非一次体面的战略撤退，更不是正常的租约更替。拥有近40年历史、2012年头顶"中餐第一股"光环 登陆港股的上海小南国，以一种近乎"人间蒸发"的方式，在沪上近20家门店实现了集体团灭。员工上班 时发现无法打卡、水电断供；供应商提着鸡蛋、蔬菜货款无处索要；消费者预付了数千元年夜饭订金， 却只等来一句"公司倒闭了，不要再打电话来了"的粗暴回复。 资本市场迅速用脚投票。2月10日，公司股价暴跌28.57%，报收0.025港元/股，沦为名副其实的"仙股"， 总市值跌破7000万港元，较2012年巅峰时期股价跌幅高达98%。直到舆论哗然，上市公司才在深夜发公 告澄清，将此次停业委婉定义为"配合集团策略性重整"与"减少财务亏损"。 从弄堂里四张桌子的石库门神话，到年营收超20亿的"本帮菜大王"，再到资不抵债率超250%的资本弃 儿，上海小南国的猝死绝非偶然。这不仅是老字号的暮年悲歌，更是中式正餐"大而全"模式在消费分 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for various sectors [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as there are still significant business prospects available [4]. - The article identifies "consumption stratification" and "demand migration" as the largest commercial opportunities in the current market [5]. - As consumers shift away from purchasing homes and luxury goods, money is flowing into the second-hand economy, with notable growth in Japan's second-hand luxury market represented by companies like Daikokuya [6]. - In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing significant business growth in the second-hand market [7]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - The article highlights the rise of the pet economy, noting that while young people may not be having children, they are willing to spend on premium pet products [11]. - Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao (Zhongchong) in China are seeing strong stock performance due to the growing demand for pet food and related services [12]. - The adult care market is also expanding, with Japan's adult diaper market surpassing $10 billion, indicating a significant growth potential for similar products in China [16][18]. - Health-conscious food and beverage products are gaining traction, with brands like Suntory and Meiji seeing substantial growth due to changing population demographics and rising health awareness [21]. Group 3: Lifestyle and Emotional Spending - The "beauty economy" is thriving, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating that consumers prioritize beauty even in challenging economic times [23]. - Outdoor leisure activities are becoming popular, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese outdoor brands experiencing rapid sales growth [25][26]. - The emotional economy is also on the rise, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' desires for emotional fulfillment and experiences [28][29]. - The "lazy economy" reflects a trend where younger generations prefer convenience, leading to increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time [33][35]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Strategic Insights - The article argues that the current economic climate, often perceived as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - Companies that can identify and capitalize on these emerging trends are likely to emerge as winners in the low-desire era, as time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving measures [36].

出品 | 摩登消费 作者 | 嬛嬛 编辑 | 闪电 美编 | 邢静 审核 | 颂文 当中国乳业从"快速做大"转向"以质为先"，市场正展现出新的可能。 2024年，中国乳制品市场规模达6535亿元，但人均乳制品年消费量仅40.5公斤，不足全球平均水平的三分之一，这意味着未来行业仍有很长的路可以走，也 意味着行业的增长故事还未完结。 就在这样的背景下，君乐宝正式向港交所递交了招股书，启动上市进程。这不仅是一家乳企的关键一步，也像一扇窗口，让我们得以观察：在行业转型、消 费分层的今天，中国乳企应该如何寻找自己的节奏，走出一条不一样的路，书写行业新的"增长故事"。 中国乳制品工业协会《2025中国奶商指数报告》明确揭示：消费者的认知已从"多喝奶"步入"喝好奶"的新阶段。 近日递交招股书的君乐宝乳业，业绩表现恰好呼应了这一趋势。 更为亮眼的是盈利表现：经调整净利润从2023年的6.0亿元大幅跃升至2024年的11.6亿元，增幅接近翻倍，这清晰地表明其增长动力已从单纯的规模驱动，切 换至更具质量的盈利驱动，2025年1—9月，利润就达到了9.4亿元，2025全年的利润更值得期待。 （图 / 摄图网，基于VRF协议） 另外 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry, emphasizing the need for companies to accurately grasp market trends to navigate the increasingly competitive landscape [1] Group 1: White Liquor Market - The white liquor market in January 2026 is experiencing a significant adjustment, with high inventory and low profit margins leading to a situation where channel profits for high-end liquor are compressed to 30-50 yuan per bottle [3] - Despite cautious inventory levels and thin channel profits, the online sales data from Kuaishou indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with regional brands gaining traction in a more accessible and flexible manner [2][4] - The sales proportions for mid-range price segments (100-300 yuan, 300-500 yuan, and 500-800 yuan) have all increased compared to 2025, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [4][5] - The top-selling SKUs in the high-end segment now include regional brands, suggesting consumers are seeking distinctive alternatives beyond traditional high-end products [6] Group 2: Beer Market - The beer market is showing a clear trend of consumption upgrading, with the 100-300 yuan price segment accounting for 74.75% of sales in January 2026, a significant increase from 51.54% in 2025 [8][9] - Qingdao Beer has emerged as a dominant player in the mid-range segment, successfully linking its products to the festive consumption needs of the Chinese New Year [9][11] - The marketing strategies employed by beer brands, such as festive themes and emotional connections, have transformed beer into a social currency during the holiday season [11] Group 3: Wine Market - The wine market is witnessing a shift, with consumer spending moving towards the mid-price range, particularly the 300-500 yuan segment, which saw a substantial increase from 9.28% in 2025 to 21.76% in January 2026 [12][14] - The high-end segment is experiencing a decline, while the mid-range is gaining traction, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented options [12][14] - The rise of domestic brands and unique offerings in the wine market suggests a growing consumer interest in quality and storytelling, moving away from solely international brands [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Shifts and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer demand is shifting towards different sectors [4]. - The article identifies eight key industries that are capitalizing on changing consumer preferences, highlighting that demand migration presents significant business opportunities [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, exemplified by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a dramatic revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][8]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, spending on pets is rising. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are benefiting from this trend, with various pet brands seeing continuous sales growth [12][13][14][15][16]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating that aging populations can create substantial economic opportunities rather than being a burden [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that consumers prioritize personal care even in economic downturns [23][24][25][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, like Snow Peak in Japan, are thriving as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic constraints [29][30][31]. - **Convenience Economy**: The rise of frozen foods and smart home appliances reflects a shift towards convenience, with brands like Anjijia and Kewotai seeing steady growth [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend of reduced cooking time among younger generations has led to increased demand for time-saving products, suggesting that time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving ones in a low-desire economy [39][42]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article argues against the notion that the current market is in a "cold winter," suggesting that the true winners in a low-desire era are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [44].

Industry Overview - The Chinese wireless keyboard industry is undergoing a profound transformation, moving from an early stage of technological experimentation and popularization to a new development cycle characterized by consumer segmentation, scenario refinement, and technological competition [1][6] - By 2025, the market size of the Chinese wireless keyboard industry is expected to approach 2.2 billion yuan [1][8] - The rise of customized designs, such as hot-swappable switches, Gasket structures, and RGB backlighting, is enhancing user experience and driving personalized consumption trends [1][8] Market Size - The market size of the Chinese wireless keyboard industry is projected to reach nearly 2.2 billion yuan by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [1][8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the wireless keyboard industry includes components such as chips, wireless communication modules, microcontrollers, sensors, PCB circuit boards, mechanical switches, lithium batteries, keycaps, and plastic housings [4] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of wireless keyboards, while the downstream applications span smart homes, remote work, mobile entertainment, esports, and creative design, driving product diversification [4] Key Companies - The competitive landscape of the Chinese wireless keyboard industry features international brands like Logitech and Razer dominating the high-end market, while domestic companies such as Rapoo and Keychron focus on cost-effectiveness and technological innovation [8][9] - Emerging brands like Black Canyon and Aishi Stone are entering the esports and high-end markets through innovative technologies and industrial design [8] Industry Development Trends 1. Continuous iteration of wireless connection technology, with multi-mode and low latency becoming core standards [12] 2. The demand for ergonomic designs and personalized customization is expected to drive product diversification, with a focus on health and self-expression [13] 3. The market growth will increasingly come from precise satisfaction of specific scenarios, such as remote and hybrid work, as well as specialized keyboards for professionals like programmers and designers [14]