机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：涂力磊/谢皓宇/曾佳敏 本报告导读： 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α 价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。看好 REITs政 策打开背景下，企业价值持续重估。 商业赛道能力突出，运营α 属性明显。公司于2008 年涉足商业地产，属于业内较早布局商业地产的企 业，为公司奠定"地产+商业"双轮驱动战略雏形。我们认为公司在商业赛道的竞争优势和α 属性主要体 现在：1）先发优势明显，竞争格局逐步优化；2）商业运营能力突出，经营效益行业前列；3）城市消 费潜力逐步释放，下沉市场换发新机。未来看，我们判断公司商业赛道长期增长逻辑主要在于通过头部 集中、存量改造、数字化运营以及证券化通道，持续扩大市场份额并用更低Cap Rate 进行资本化。 开发业务拖累逐步减轻，利润率底部确认。近年来，公司主动调整战略目标，由规模扩张转向加速去化 和保障竣工交付，合同销售金额在2019 年达到峰值后进入下行通道。公司自2024 年8 月起回收销售折 扣，2025 年上半年较2024 年提升240 元/平至10072 元/平，阶段性完成价格底部确认。我们判断随着高 折扣项目结转比例下降，后续毛利率具 ...

Core Insights - New City Holdings (601155.SH) held its 2026 operational meeting from January 20 to 22, focusing on reviewing past performance and outlining future strategies [1] - The company emphasized a dual-driven strategy of "residential + commercial" to navigate a complex industry environment, achieving a sales amount of 19.27 billion yuan and a total commercial operating revenue of 14.09 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The chairman highlighted the importance of building corporate credit value and improving asset management quality as key objectives for 2026 [2] Group 1: 2025 Performance - In 2025, New City Holdings successfully issued offshore bonds and three phases of medium-term notes, expanding its financing channels [1] - The company delivered over 38,000 properties in 2025, with a total delivery exceeding 278,000 units over the past three years, demonstrating commitment to corporate responsibility [1] Group 2: 2026 Strategic Focus - The real estate development division will focus on risk management, structural adjustments, and transformation, ensuring liquidity safety and optimizing asset structure [2] - The commercial management division aims to enhance professional capabilities and maintain leading operational performance through a five-step management approach [2] - The chairman stated that 2026 is a critical year for both industry transformation and New City Holdings' development, urging the company to maintain strategic focus and seize opportunities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - New City Holdings plans to adopt a "deep cultivation and innovation" approach in 2026, aiming to enhance corporate credit value and asset management quality amid industry adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting the challenges faced in the real estate industry, while emphasizing its commitment to operational resilience and social responsibility [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 22.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 34.82% [1][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.895 billion RMB, down 32.11% compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The basic earnings per share were 0.4 RMB [1]. Sales and Contracts - The company reported a contract sales area of 1.335 million square meters, a decline of 59.08% year-on-year [2]. - The total contract sales amount was 10.33 billion RMB, down 56.15% year-on-year [2]. - The company achieved a total cash recovery of 11.884 billion RMB, with a cash recovery rate of 115.05% [2]. Operational Highlights - The company delivered over 16,000 high-quality properties nationwide in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company operates 205 Wuyue Plazas across 141 cities, with 174 currently in operation and a total operational area of 16.0814 million square meters, achieving a rental rate of 97.81% [3]. - The total foot traffic at Wuyue Plazas reached 950 million visits, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, with total sales exceeding 51.5 billion RMB, up 16.5% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on maintaining cash flow, ensuring project delivery, and safeguarding asset value amidst market challenges [2]. - The company is enhancing its operational capabilities through refined management and innovative commercial strategies, achieving a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion RMB, an increase of 11.78% [4]. Asset Overview - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had total assets of 288.329 billion RMB and net assets attributable to shareholders of 61.799 billion RMB [5]. - The company completed the delivery of 36 sub-projects with a total area of 2.7765 million square meters [5]. - There are currently 158 sub-projects under construction, with a total building area of 17.4847 million square meters [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on maintaining operational stability and enhancing its business model in response to the evolving real estate market and economic conditions, while also emphasizing sustainable development and community engagement. Meeting Information - The annual shareholders' meeting is scheduled for May 26, 2025, at 14:00, with both on-site and online voting options available [1][1]. Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a contract sales area of 5.3882 million square meters, a decrease of 44.38% year-on-year, and a contract sales amount of 40.171 billion yuan, down 47.13% year-on-year [1][1]. - The company maintained a full-caliber fund recovery of 41.129 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of 102.38% [1][1]. - The company completed over 100,000 property deliveries during the reporting period, emphasizing quality and customer satisfaction [1][1]. Business Strategy - The company employs a dual-driven strategy of "real estate development + commercial operation" to adapt to market changes and seize structural opportunities [1][1]. - The company has established a strong presence with 200 "Wuyue Plaza" projects across 136 cities, achieving an occupancy rate of 97.97% [2][2]. - The total commercial operation revenue reached 12.808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth [2][2]. Financial Health - As of the reporting period, the company's total assets amounted to 307.193 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders of 60.869 billion yuan [6][6]. - The average financing cost decreased to 5.92%, down 0.28 percentage points from the previous year [5][5]. - The company has secured a total credit line of 84.9 billion yuan from major banks, with 25.2 billion yuan utilized [5][5]. Industry Context - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with total sales amounting to 9.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.1% [6][6]. - The government has introduced various policies to stabilize the real estate market, including reducing down payment ratios and interest rates [10][10]. - The commercial sector is adapting to consumer demands for experiential and emotional value, leading to innovations in business models [15][15]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 16 new projects in 2025, with a total construction area of 1.6955 million square meters [22][22]. - The company aims to achieve a total commercial operation revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2025, with five new Wuyue Plaza projects planned [24][24]. - The company is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency and exploring new investment opportunities while maintaining a focus on risk management [21][21].