Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping sector and highlights a positive outlook for the express delivery industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict is driving up the risk premium for shipping assets, particularly affecting oil transportation [10][11]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a continuation of anti-competitive practices, with volume growth exceeding expectations [3][46]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The US-Iran conflict has intensified, potentially increasing the risk premium for shipping assets. Approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, including 34% of oil exports and 30% of LPG exports [11][10]. - VLCC spot rates have surged to $200,000, with a week-on-week increase of 40.1%. The one-year VLCC charter rate has also risen to $100,000 per day, reflecting a 9% increase [2][26]. - The report emphasizes three factors contributing to the bullish sentiment in the VLCC market: the US-Iran conflict, the rise of Long Jin as a major VLCC operator, and increased compliance trade demand due to sanctions [42][38]. Express Delivery - The anti-competitive practices in the express delivery sector are being addressed by the State Post Bureau, which has identified it as a key focus for 2026 [43]. - The sector's volume growth is gradually recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in cumulative collection volume as of February 22 [46]. - Leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are outperforming the market, with Zhongtong's volume growth at 9.3% compared to the industry average of 5% [47][48]. Industry Data Tracking - Domestic civil aviation passenger volume increased by 6.3% year-on-year before the Spring Festival, with average ticket prices also rising [54][55]. - The air cargo price index at Pudong Airport showed a year-on-year increase of 7.4% as of February 23 [73]. - The BDI and SCFI indices have shown increases of 5% and 7% respectively, indicating a positive trend in the shipping market [77].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI indices, alongside the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, with a notable improvement in air ticket prices and rising shipping rates in oil and bulk transport [1][2][3]. - The average price of express delivery per ticket in October 2025 was 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00%, which is an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.91% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by the "anti-involution" trend and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][6]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Express, while in aviation, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery sector's growth rate has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.10% from January to October 2025, and a single-digit growth in October [4]. - The average price of domestic air tickets in October 2025 was 809 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, marking the best monthly performance of the year [3][4]. - In the oil transport sector, OPEC's average crude oil production from January to November was 27,484 thousand barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Bulk Commodity Supply Chain - The bulk commodity supply chain is entering a replenishment cycle, with significant increases in iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, leading to a rise in the BDI freight index [5]. - Major commodity prices are showing signs of recovery, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu reporting improved performance in the first three quarters [5].