消息面上，招商证券表示，受反内卷政策催化，行业利好事件、积极信号不断释放，推动估值大幅修 复：5月初义乌快递低价率先实现小幅修复；7月国家邮政局多次召开"反内卷"相关会议；华南地区已于 8月初启动涨价、8月底义乌启动涨价，从8月主要电商快递公司月度数据表现上看，已经初步验证了价 格的环比修复；9月以来，全国华中、华北多个区域价格环比修复，随着双十一临近、快递行业步入旺 季，建议持续关注旺季价格表现和数据验证情况。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超4% ，截至发稿，涨4.13%，报151.4港元，成交额4.21亿港 元。 国海证券此前指出，中通快递规模效应和单票盈利性大幅领先，随着产品及业务结构持续优化，全链路 降本项目持续推进，单票盈利能力有望继续与同行拉开差距。短期期待量利再平衡策略带来利润和增长 修复，长期看好电商快递龙头管理优秀强者恒强，维持"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年9月25日 水牛还是价格修复？ 专题报告· 宏观经济 国信宏观 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 | 证券分析师：田地 | 证券分析师：董德志 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005483 | 0755-81982035 | 021-60933158 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523070001 | S0980524090003 | S0980513100001 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心结论 1、（1）从资产相关性视角来看，权益资产上行核心驱动并非来自于宏观流动性过剩。（2） 从微观视角来看，本轮权益资产上行到目前为止并未引发场外资金大规模入场，而主要以 场内资金腾挪和加杠杆完成。 2、（1）市场自"反内卷"以来主导国内资本市场走势的核心因子是风险偏好回升。（2）从 三个角度看，四季度价格可能延续边际企稳：一是内外需定价品种存在显著分化；二是反 内卷逐步实施，对内需部分产生托底作用；三是诸如M ...

近期，上海、浙江、广东、福建等地的多家快递企业下发涨价通知，启动价格调整。 记者注意到，自国家邮政局7月召开会议反对"内卷式"竞争以来，停止"价格战"成为行业共识，多地快 递单票价格逐步回升，多家A股快递公司8月份单票收入实现了环比上涨。与此同时，头部快递企业纷 纷通过大数据、人工智能、无人车等科技手段推动降本增效。 在中通快递财报电话会上，公司创始人、董事长兼首席执行官赖梅松表示，今年开年直至七月份，快递 价格持续下行，"确实价格和成本脱钩比较厉害"。自8月5日起，快递行业价格有所调整，价格理性回 归，向良性方向发展，对公司整体利润有正向影响。 "价格的回升将有助于稳定网络、提升末端业务员收入，并最终推动行业走向价值竞争，有利于行业的 长期健康发展。"韵达股份也在半年报业绩说明会上表示。 科技创新推动行业有序竞争 业内人士称，随着四季度电商大促来临，快递行业有望借助旺季进一步完成价格修复，实现健康可持续 发展。 多地上调快递单票价格 9月19日，"三通一达"（圆通速递、申通快递、中通快递、韵达股份）以及极兔速递五家公司的上海公 司发布告客户书，称于9月22日零时起，对上海区域所有用户的快递收件价格进行上调。 ...

Group 1 - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - Non-food prices are showing a continuous recovery, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2][3] Group 2 - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI turning stable after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, signaling improved industrial economic stability [3][4] - The structural improvement in industrial prices reflects better supply-demand relationships in certain sectors and ongoing optimization of industrial structure, with traditional industries like coal and steel seeing price increases [3][4] - The ongoing expansion of new demand in emerging sectors is driving price increases in high-tech and green industries, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance slightly underperformed expectations, with revenue growth impacted by intensified price competition [1][2] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% - Gross profit was 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% - Adjusted net profit stood at 476 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% - 2Q25 revenue was 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% - 2Q25 gross profit was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% - Adjusted net profit for 2Q25 was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1][2] Dividend Announcement - The company announced its first-ever interim dividend, with a payout ratio of 50% based on 1H25 net profit, which aligns with market expectations - The interim dividend includes a regular dividend of 0.1572 HKD per share and a special dividend of 0.0393 HKD per share - The total dividend yield is 2.34% based on the closing price on August 19 [1][2] Market Trends - The company is focusing on optimizing cargo structure, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase in total cargo volume to 6.82 million tons in 1H25 - The number of shipments increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 90.6 million, with a decrease in average weight per shipment from 89 kg to 75 kg - The number of freight partners and agents exceeded 38,000, a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [1][2] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - In 2Q25, the average price for less-than-truckload services decreased by 2% year-on-year to 805 yuan/ton - The cost per ton remained stable at 680 yuan/ton, with variations in specific cost components - The unit gross profit decreased by 11% year-on-year to 125 yuan/ton due to price competition [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised down its non-HKFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% to 940 million yuan and 1.1 billion yuan, respectively - The current price corresponds to a non-HKFRS P/E ratio of 9.5x for 2025 and 8.2x for 2026 - The target price remains at 11 HKD, implying a potential upside of 31% based on projected P/E ratios [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese renewable energy industry is facing an unprecedented "involution" crisis, characterized by significant price drops in key materials and components, prompting industry associations to advocate against unfair competition and promote healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price of silicon materials has plummeted by 90%, and the cost of energy storage systems has entered the "0.3 yuan era," while the average bidding price for wind power equipment has decreased by 65% from its peak in 2020 [1]. - Overcapacity is identified as the core issue of the involution crisis, with rapid capacity expansion in the photovoltaic industry leading to severe overcapacity risks by 2025, despite projected demand of 160 to 180 million tons of polysilicon [2]. - The energy storage sector is also experiencing significant overcapacity, with around 200 GWh of annual installed capacity, which could lead to insufficient orders for the numerous active system integrators [2]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Various industry associations, including the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, have issued initiatives to combat unfair competition and promote healthy industry development [1][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is actively seeking feedback on the draft revision of the Price Law, which aims to address issues of low-price dumping and restore price order in the market [4][6]. - A total of 152 companies have participated in the initiative to maintain fair competition in the energy storage sector, indicating strong industry support for self-regulation [5]. Group 3: Policy Measures - The Chinese government is implementing a multi-layered governance system to address the involution crisis, including industry self-regulation, legal revisions, and price monitoring [4][6]. - Recent policy announcements from various government departments emphasize the need to regulate low-price competition and encourage the exit of outdated capacities [6]. - As a result of these measures, there has been a reported 20%-30% increase in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, reflecting the initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" actions [6].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

Group 1 - The construction materials ETF (159745) has increased by over 1.0% [1] - Hunan Yunfeng Cement completed the transfer of 2500t/d cement clinker capacity on July 4, 2025 [1] - Gezhouba Cement's Xili Company won an industry award in Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is currently facing challenges such as weak demand, overcapacity, and inventory pressure [1] - The China Cement Association has issued opinions to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" for high-quality development in the cement industry [1] - It is expected that cement prices will receive support and recovery, leading to improved profitability for companies [1] Group 3 - Leading companies are expected to shift from price competition to value creation through technological innovation [1] - Mergers and acquisitions will be utilized to extend the industrial chain and increase overseas expansion for further growth [1] - Enhanced industry self-discipline measures are anticipated to optimize the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF tracks the construction materials index, which reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the cement, glass, and ceramics sub-industries [1] - The index has a high degree of industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, providing a comprehensive view of market trends in the construction materials sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call on the Coating Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **building coatings industry**, specifically the competitive dynamics between **Nippon Paint** and **Sankeshu** in 2024 and projections for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Competition and Market Dynamics - In 2024, a **price war** erupted between Nippon Paint and Sankeshu, particularly over products like "Moon White High Coverage Coating," leading to significant price reductions [1][2]. - Nippon Paint's sales volume increased by approximately **30%**, but revenue did not grow, indicating that profit sacrifices did not translate into market share gains [1][2]. - Sankeshu ceased the price war and adjusted its retail structure, increasing retail business share to over **40%**, which improved overall operating profit [1][3]. - Both companies are expected to engage in **price recovery** in 2025 due to the adverse effects of the price war on profitability [1][3]. Pricing Strategies - In 2024, Sankeshu maintained its factory price around **85 RMB** while Nippon Paint reduced prices for mid-to-low-end products to increase market share, with prices dropping to **65 RMB** for its Pro product [4]. - By 2025, Nippon Paint raised prices multiple times due to higher profits from deliveries to Singapore and increased market share for Sankeshu in rural areas [5]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The **ToC (Consumer-to-Business)** segment is shifting towards **ToB (Business-to-Business)** partnerships with large real estate companies, which are pressuring coating companies to lower costs, negatively impacting profit margins [10][14]. - The retail market is gradually recovering, particularly with improvements in second-hand housing sales and increased demand for high-quality residences [11]. Competitive Landscape - In the C-end market, Sankeshu focuses on lower-tier cities while Nippon Paint dominates first and second-tier cities, leading to a **differentiated competition strategy** [12][13]. - Both companies are exploring community store formats to reach consumers more effectively, although success rates remain uncertain [13]. Future Market Trends - The **water-based sand market** is expected to grow significantly, with rural housing renovation needs presenting substantial opportunities for coating companies [24][25]. - The overall market for rural self-built housing is projected to expand, with only Nippon Paint and Sankeshu currently possessing comprehensive competitive capabilities across all product categories [26]. Pricing Logic and Profitability - Nippon Paint's pricing is more transparent, typically at **2 to 2.5 times** the factory price, while Sankeshu's retail prices can reach **2.5 to 3 times** the factory price, indicating different pricing strategies [20][22]. - Both companies face challenges from the **full-package service model**, which requires maintaining high service quality to avoid negative customer feedback [22]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the industry remains positive due to increasing demand for high-quality housing and supportive government policies [15]. - The combined market share of Nippon Paint and Sankeshu is expected to exceed **30%** in the next three years, driven by their scale advantages and cost control capabilities [32]. Additional Important Insights - The **current market for latex paint** is in a recovery phase, with demand still present across various price segments [8]. - The **price reduction trend** is primarily driven by Nippon Paint and Sankeshu's ability to lower costs through economies of scale [31]. - Future price increases are unlikely due to reduced raw material costs and already optimized profit margins [33].