Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 151.4 HKD, with a transaction volume of 421 million HKD, driven by favorable industry developments and policy changes [1] Industry Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed positive signals in the express delivery industry, leading to a substantial valuation recovery [1] - In early May, Yiwu's express delivery prices began to show slight recovery, followed by multiple meetings held by the State Post Bureau regarding "anti-involution" in July [1] - Price increases were initiated in early August in South China and in Yiwu by the end of August, with preliminary data indicating a month-on-month price recovery among major e-commerce express companies [1] - Since September, several regions in Central and Northern China have also experienced month-on-month price recovery, suggesting a positive trend as the peak season approaches with Double Eleven [1] Company Summary - Guohai Securities highlighted ZTO Express's significant scale effect and superior single-ticket profitability, which is expected to widen the gap with competitors as product and business structures continue to optimize [1] - The ongoing cost reduction projects across the entire supply chain are anticipated to enhance single-ticket profitability further [1] - In the short term, a strategy focused on balancing volume and price is expected to restore profits and growth, while the long-term outlook remains positive for leading e-commerce express companies due to their strong management capabilities [1]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core driver of the current rise in equity assets is not due to macro liquidity excess but rather a recovery in risk appetite since the "anti-involution" policy was implemented[5] - The market is primarily driven by internal fund reallocations and leverage rather than large-scale inflows from external funds[5] - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted to a "see-saw" effect, indicating that growth factor changes are now dominant, contrasting with the liquidity-driven environment of 2015[13] Group 2: Price Stabilization and PPI Insights - Price stabilization is expected to continue into Q4, supported by significant differentiation in pricing between domestic and external demand[5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is influenced by overseas inflation, with a notable divergence between Chinese and U.S. PPI trends[25] - The PPI gap between different industries, such as non-ferrous and ferrous metals, has reached 20%, a historically unprecedented level[25] Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - As of September 14, 2025, new equity fund sales reached 42.85 billion units, a significant increase from less than 10 billion units at the beginning of 2024, although still below the peak levels seen in 2015 and 2021[18] - The margin ratio for internal funds reached 294.17% on August 24, 2025, nearing historical peak levels, indicating high leverage in the market[18] Group 4: Future Projections - If capacity utilization rises above 75%, a 1.35% increase is expected, with a corresponding price increase of approximately 1.5% due to the price elasticity of capacity utilization[40] - The stock market's upward trend since September 2024 is compared to the 1999 market rally, suggesting a potential further increase of around 30% if the current trajectory continues[55][58]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price adjustment, with several companies in regions like Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian announcing price increases starting September 22 [2][4] - Following a meeting by the State Post Bureau in July to address "involution" competition, there is a consensus in the industry to halt price wars, leading to a gradual recovery in per-package pricing [1][2] - Major express companies are leveraging technology such as big data, artificial intelligence, and unmanned vehicles to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1][5] Price Adjustments - The "Three Links and One Reach" companies (YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Holdings) along with Jitu Express have initiated price hikes in Shanghai [2] - The price recovery trend has been noted since the second half of the year, with companies like Shunfeng Holdings and YTO Express reporting declines in per-package revenue earlier in the year [2][3] - Specific data shows that in August, Shentong Express's per-package revenue was 2.06 yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while YTO Express reported 2.15 yuan, reflecting a 0.07 yuan increase from July [3] Industry Outlook - Experts predict that 2025 will mark a turning point in the express delivery industry's price wars, with expectations of a gradual recovery in prices in the latter half of the year [3] - The shift from a "price for volume" model to a focus on value is becoming evident, as companies report improved revenue figures in August compared to July [3][4] - The upcoming peak shopping seasons are anticipated to further support price recovery and sustainable growth in the industry [1][6] Technological Innovations - Companies are increasingly adopting technological innovations to drive efficiency and reduce costs, with a focus on artificial intelligence and automation [5][6] - Zhongtong Express is implementing AI tools across its operations, enhancing remote management and optimizing delivery routes [5] - Yunda Holdings is utilizing big data for intelligent routing and dynamic scheduling, aiming to lower transportation costs per package [5][6] Future Developments - The integration of unmanned vehicles and drones is expected to transform logistics models in the next 3 to 5 years, enhancing collaboration with delivery personnel [6] - Zhongtong Express has begun commercial testing of unmanned vehicles, deploying over 2,000 units across approximately 700 locations [6] - Yunda Holdings is optimistic about the industry's price adjustments and anticipates a reduction in irrational competition as the peak shopping seasons approach [6]

Group 1 - The August price data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows significant structural differentiation, with a slight year-on-year decline in CPI, but positive signals regarding economic transformation and structural optimization are evident [1][4] - The CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and lower seasonal food prices, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [1][2] - Non-food prices are showing a continuous recovery, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand [2][3] Group 2 - Industrial prices are showing positive changes, with PPI turning stable after eight months of decline, and the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, signaling improved industrial economic stability [3][4] - The structural improvement in industrial prices reflects better supply-demand relationships in certain sectors and ongoing optimization of industrial structure, with traditional industries like coal and steel seeing price increases [3][4] - The ongoing expansion of new demand in emerging sectors is driving price increases in high-tech and green industries, indicating a shift towards higher value-added products [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance slightly underperformed expectations, with revenue growth impacted by intensified price competition [1][2] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% - Gross profit was 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% - Adjusted net profit stood at 476 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% - 2Q25 revenue was 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% - 2Q25 gross profit was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% - Adjusted net profit for 2Q25 was 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1][2] Dividend Announcement - The company announced its first-ever interim dividend, with a payout ratio of 50% based on 1H25 net profit, which aligns with market expectations - The interim dividend includes a regular dividend of 0.1572 HKD per share and a special dividend of 0.0393 HKD per share - The total dividend yield is 2.34% based on the closing price on August 19 [1][2] Market Trends - The company is focusing on optimizing cargo structure, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase in total cargo volume to 6.82 million tons in 1H25 - The number of shipments increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 90.6 million, with a decrease in average weight per shipment from 89 kg to 75 kg - The number of freight partners and agents exceeded 38,000, a year-on-year increase of approximately 23% [1][2] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - In 2Q25, the average price for less-than-truckload services decreased by 2% year-on-year to 805 yuan/ton - The cost per ton remained stable at 680 yuan/ton, with variations in specific cost components - The unit gross profit decreased by 11% year-on-year to 125 yuan/ton due to price competition [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised down its non-HKFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% to 940 million yuan and 1.1 billion yuan, respectively - The current price corresponds to a non-HKFRS P/E ratio of 9.5x for 2025 and 8.2x for 2026 - The target price remains at 11 HKD, implying a potential upside of 31% based on projected P/E ratios [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese renewable energy industry is facing an unprecedented "involution" crisis, characterized by significant price drops in key materials and components, prompting industry associations to advocate against unfair competition and promote healthy development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price of silicon materials has plummeted by 90%, and the cost of energy storage systems has entered the "0.3 yuan era," while the average bidding price for wind power equipment has decreased by 65% from its peak in 2020 [1]. - Overcapacity is identified as the core issue of the involution crisis, with rapid capacity expansion in the photovoltaic industry leading to severe overcapacity risks by 2025, despite projected demand of 160 to 180 million tons of polysilicon [2]. - The energy storage sector is also experiencing significant overcapacity, with around 200 GWh of annual installed capacity, which could lead to insufficient orders for the numerous active system integrators [2]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Various industry associations, including the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, have issued initiatives to combat unfair competition and promote healthy industry development [1][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is actively seeking feedback on the draft revision of the Price Law, which aims to address issues of low-price dumping and restore price order in the market [4][6]. - A total of 152 companies have participated in the initiative to maintain fair competition in the energy storage sector, indicating strong industry support for self-regulation [5]. Group 3: Policy Measures - The Chinese government is implementing a multi-layered governance system to address the involution crisis, including industry self-regulation, legal revisions, and price monitoring [4][6]. - Recent policy announcements from various government departments emphasize the need to regulate low-price competition and encourage the exit of outdated capacities [6]. - As a result of these measures, there has been a reported 20%-30% increase in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, reflecting the initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" actions [6].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

Group 1 - The construction materials ETF (159745) has increased by over 1.0% [1] - Hunan Yunfeng Cement completed the transfer of 2500t/d cement clinker capacity on July 4, 2025 [1] - Gezhouba Cement's Xili Company won an industry award in Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region for 2025 [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is currently facing challenges such as weak demand, overcapacity, and inventory pressure [1] - The China Cement Association has issued opinions to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" for high-quality development in the cement industry [1] - It is expected that cement prices will receive support and recovery, leading to improved profitability for companies [1] Group 3 - Leading companies are expected to shift from price competition to value creation through technological innovation [1] - Mergers and acquisitions will be utilized to extend the industrial chain and increase overseas expansion for further growth [1] - Enhanced industry self-discipline measures are anticipated to optimize the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 4 - The construction materials ETF tracks the construction materials index, which reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the cement, glass, and ceramics sub-industries [1] - The index has a high degree of industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, providing a comprehensive view of market trends in the construction materials sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call on the Coating Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **building coatings industry**, specifically the competitive dynamics between **Nippon Paint** and **Sankeshu** in 2024 and projections for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Competition and Market Dynamics - In 2024, a **price war** erupted between Nippon Paint and Sankeshu, particularly over products like "Moon White High Coverage Coating," leading to significant price reductions [1][2]. - Nippon Paint's sales volume increased by approximately **30%**, but revenue did not grow, indicating that profit sacrifices did not translate into market share gains [1][2]. - Sankeshu ceased the price war and adjusted its retail structure, increasing retail business share to over **40%**, which improved overall operating profit [1][3]. - Both companies are expected to engage in **price recovery** in 2025 due to the adverse effects of the price war on profitability [1][3]. Pricing Strategies - In 2024, Sankeshu maintained its factory price around **85 RMB** while Nippon Paint reduced prices for mid-to-low-end products to increase market share, with prices dropping to **65 RMB** for its Pro product [4]. - By 2025, Nippon Paint raised prices multiple times due to higher profits from deliveries to Singapore and increased market share for Sankeshu in rural areas [5]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The **ToC (Consumer-to-Business)** segment is shifting towards **ToB (Business-to-Business)** partnerships with large real estate companies, which are pressuring coating companies to lower costs, negatively impacting profit margins [10][14]. - The retail market is gradually recovering, particularly with improvements in second-hand housing sales and increased demand for high-quality residences [11]. Competitive Landscape - In the C-end market, Sankeshu focuses on lower-tier cities while Nippon Paint dominates first and second-tier cities, leading to a **differentiated competition strategy** [12][13]. - Both companies are exploring community store formats to reach consumers more effectively, although success rates remain uncertain [13]. Future Market Trends - The **water-based sand market** is expected to grow significantly, with rural housing renovation needs presenting substantial opportunities for coating companies [24][25]. - The overall market for rural self-built housing is projected to expand, with only Nippon Paint and Sankeshu currently possessing comprehensive competitive capabilities across all product categories [26]. Pricing Logic and Profitability - Nippon Paint's pricing is more transparent, typically at **2 to 2.5 times** the factory price, while Sankeshu's retail prices can reach **2.5 to 3 times** the factory price, indicating different pricing strategies [20][22]. - Both companies face challenges from the **full-package service model**, which requires maintaining high service quality to avoid negative customer feedback [22]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the industry remains positive due to increasing demand for high-quality housing and supportive government policies [15]. - The combined market share of Nippon Paint and Sankeshu is expected to exceed **30%** in the next three years, driven by their scale advantages and cost control capabilities [32]. Additional Important Insights - The **current market for latex paint** is in a recovery phase, with demand still present across various price segments [8]. - The **price reduction trend** is primarily driven by Nippon Paint and Sankeshu's ability to lower costs through economies of scale [31]. - Future price increases are unlikely due to reduced raw material costs and already optimized profit margins [33].