Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Group 1 - The 2025 Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Zone construction promotion meeting was held in Jinan, Shandong, with over 240 representatives from various associations, experts, and entrepreneurs discussing new paths for cross-strait industrial cooperation [1][3] - Jinan aims to accelerate the planning and construction of the only Cross-Strait Industrial Cooperation Zone themed on the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, enhancing exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan in various fields [3] - The cooperation zone is seen as a quality platform for both sides to share opportunities and seek development, with suggestions to deepen collaboration in high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, biomedicine, and modern agriculture [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of establishing regular communication platforms for industrial matching between Shandong and Taiwan, focusing on complementary industries to achieve mutual benefits [3] - The Wangwang Group has invested a total of $440 million in two factories in Shandong, with projected output value of 3.87 billion RMB in 2024, indicating strong investment interest from Taiwanese companies [3] - Initiatives such as the launch of the Cross-Strait New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion Industrial Cooperation Zone Fund and the establishment of mediation committees for Taiwan-related enterprises were introduced during the meeting [4]

Group 1 - The event in Haba County, Altay Region, Xinjiang, marks the beginning of a series of activities aimed at integrating agriculture, culture, tourism, and commerce to promote high-quality county development [1] - Kangyuan Biotechnology Group invested 65 million yuan in the development of health products such as compound sea buckthorn flavonoid tablets and sea buckthorn powder, expected to be produced within two years, filling a gap in the deep processing industry of sea buckthorn in Northern Xinjiang and generating over 200 million yuan in annual output [1] - A natural spring water industrial park with an investment of 250 million yuan was established, alongside a 5.92 billion yuan new energy project, which is expected to create over 800 jobs and lay a solid foundation for a "green energy + ecological industry" new pattern in Haba County [1] Group 2 - The tourism experience in Haba County is evolving from "transit tourism" to "in-depth enjoyment" with several projects exceeding 100 million yuan, including the opening of the Rainbow Bulak Scenic Area, which received over 10,000 visitors on its first day [2] - Various tourism projects, such as the 210 million yuan multi-gate cultural tourism pedestrian street and the 180 million yuan Birch Forest Resort, are attracting buyers and creating over 1,200 jobs, injecting lasting vitality into the county's commerce [2] - Digital empowerment in rural revitalization is showcased through live streaming events featuring local agricultural products, achieving over 15,000 yuan in sales during a single event, and utilizing IoT traceability technology for organic lamb [2] Group 3 - The deep involvement of the 185th Regiment of the Tenth Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps has made the event a "link" for regional integration, distributing over 7,500 tickets for scenic areas [3] - The collaborative model of "resource sharing, market expansion, and cultural integration" is promoting a "win-win" scenario for tourism between the military and local communities [3] - Haba County is writing a new chapter of prosperous development in the border area through integration and practical investments, supported by academic think tanks and cultural tourism branding [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.36% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 14,545 billion, an increase of 1,210 billion compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as cross-border payments, banking, gaming, electricity, steel, and innovative pharmaceuticals saw the highest gains [1] - Conversely, sectors like solid-state batteries, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and wind power equipment faced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The gaming ETFs led the gains, with the following performances: - Gaming ETF (516010) up by 2.47% with a turnover of 157 million - Gaming ETF Huatai-PB (516770) up by 2.22% with a turnover of 31.57 million - Gaming ETF (159869) up by 2.21% with a turnover of 1,054 million [2] - Other notable ETFs included: - Banking ETFs also showed positive performance, with the top performer being Banking ETF (516310) up by 2.02% [2] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced that the "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [2] - Several companies have expressed intentions to apply for stablecoin licenses, indicating a growing interest in this market segment [2] Industry Trends - Open-source Securities reported that stablecoins are entering a "singularity" moment, with their application expanding from cryptocurrency trading to broader payment scenarios, leading to rapid growth in market size and trading activity [3]