不过，新条款不如韩美自由贸易协定有利，KDI警告称，与往年相比，当前的关税水平和不确定性仍处 于高位。KDI目前预计，未来两年商品出口仅会实现温和增长，因为关税上调的负面影响将从今年下半 年开始显现。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月12日电韩国国营智库维持了对2025年的经济增长预期，尽管该国与美国在最后一刻达 成的贸易协议帮助其躲过了惩罚性关税上调带来的最严重冲击。 韩国开发研究院（KDI）周二表示，今年该国经济将增长0.8%，与5月的预测一致。该机构在半年度报 告中指出，尽管政府的刺激计划提振了消费者信心，但这一积极影响正被建筑投资下滑以及美国关税上 调导致的出口持续疲软所抵消。近期达成的贸易协议将美国对韩国出口商品的关税上限从拟议的25%降 至15%，这帮助韩国避免了更严重的打击。 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "Dual New Economics" is the division of economic development into "new stock economics" and "new increment economics," which are interrelated and provide new insights for China's economic transformation [2][3] - The theory emphasizes the dialectical relationship between new stock and new increment, where new stock serves as the foundation for new increment, and new increment guides the development of new stock [3][10] - The theory also highlights the importance of industrial integration, regional collaborative development, and the incorporation of cultural factors into economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - The "Fifty-Six Think Tank" was established based on the principles of Dual New Economics, focusing on sustainable urban development and city cluster research [4] - The think tank employs a problem-oriented research approach, a systematic analysis framework, and interdisciplinary methods to address urban development issues [4] - The research outcomes aim to provide policy applications and scientific recommendations for government decision-making [4] Group 3 - New stock economics focuses on transforming traditional industries through content innovation, flow reconstruction, and structural optimization to create new value [5][6] - New increment economics emphasizes the role of digital technology, innovation ecosystems, and data value extraction in driving economic growth [9] - The integration of new stock and new increment is essential for fostering innovation and enhancing competitiveness in various industries [10] Group 4 - The "7+3" cross-regional cooperation model proposed by the Fifty-Six Think Tank aims to promote coordinated regional development and optimize resource allocation [14][15] - This model recognizes the non-uniform development of regions and seeks to leverage complementary advantages for overall efficiency [14] - Successful case studies, such as the collaboration between Yunnan and Guangdong, demonstrate the practical application of this model [18] Group 5 - The "56+N" cross-national cultural cooperation model emphasizes cultural diversity and economic integration, promoting international cultural exchange and cooperation [20][21] - This model aims to enhance cultural confidence and recognition through collaborative cultural initiatives and the development of international cultural tourism standards [21][22] - Practical applications of this model include the establishment of cultural IPs and cross-border tourism routes to foster global cultural connections [22][24] Group 6 - The evaluation system for high-quality urban cluster development is based on innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing [25][26] - Key indicators include economic growth rates, innovation-driven metrics, and measures of social equity and environmental sustainability [26][27][28] - The focus is on creating a comprehensive framework that assesses urban cluster performance across multiple dimensions [25] Group 7 - The paths for urban cluster innovation development involve building shared innovation platforms, leveraging digital technologies, and facilitating talent mobility across regions [29][30] - The integration of traditional industries with emerging sectors is crucial for fostering new business models and enhancing economic resilience [31] - Collaborative governance mechanisms and digital governance capabilities are essential for modernizing urban cluster management [37]

金十数据7月16日讯， 德国智库IMK研究所周三表示，美国总统特朗普计划对从欧盟进口的商品征收 30%的关税，与目前的预估相比，德国经济今明两年的增长率可能会减损约0.25个百分点。IMK研究所 称，这将意味着这个欧洲最大的经济体今年的经济增长率为零，明年的增长率为1.2%。IMK研究所之 前预估德国经济将从第四季度开始复苏，2025年的平均增长率为 0.2%，明年将在公共投资和国防开支 计划的推动下增长1.5%。IMK表示："快速实施已经规划好的公共投资攻势可以大大降低德国的经济风 险。"IMK还指出："美国的增长损失将远大于德国，"该机构补充说，美国直到去年还是德国最重要的 出口市场，占德国出口比重近10%。 德国智库：美国征收30%关税将损害德国经济增长 ...

【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银】据韩联社14日报道，韩国开发研究院（KDI）发布最新经济展 望，将2025年韩国经济增长率预期大幅下调至0.8%。这是韩国权威智库首次预测今年经济增速将跌破 1%，引发"经济衰退"担忧。韩国《朝鲜日报》报道称，如果经济增长确实为0.8%，2025年将成为韩国 自1990年以来增长第二疲弱的一年，仅次于2020年（-0.7%）的经济收缩。 根据KDI预测，韩国今年上半年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率仅为0.3%，下半年回升至1.3%，全年增长 率将止步于0.8%。而在今年2月，KDI预计全年将增长1.6%。短短三个月内，增长预期"腰斩"，反映出 经济前景持续恶化。KDI在报告中表示，外部环境恶化与内需持续疲软是拖累韩国经济的主要因素。一 方面，美欧贸易保护主义抬头，全球需求走弱，韩国出口动能放缓；另一方面，受房地产市场低迷、利 率高企、家庭消费信心不足等影响，内需复苏步履维艰。此外，美国贸易政策引发全球经贸摩擦，令韩 国经济面临更高风险。 在此背景下，韩国总统选举候选人纷纷将"经济民生"置于竞选核心。共同民主党候选人李在明主张，重 塑"公平公正"的市场秩序是经济复苏的前提，承诺遏 ...