《人工智能赋能智库研究： "AI+ 智库双螺旋法 " 的变革范式与实践》新书封面。中国科学院战略咨询院 供图 潘教峰研究员在 " 负责任智库研究的理念与实践 " 研讨会上致辞。中新网记者 孙自法 摄 记者12月17日从中国科学院科技战略咨询院(战略咨询院)获悉，作为该院智库理论创新的重要成 果，《人工智能赋能智库研究："AI+智库双螺旋法"的变革范式与实践》新书发布暨专家研讨会近日在 北京举行，提出智库双螺旋法与AI双向奔赴，推进"人智"与"机智"深度融合。 中国科学院战略咨询院院长潘教峰研究员多年来致力于智库理论和方法研究、建立智库学科基础和 知识体系。他作主旨报告指出，当前人工智能正全方位、系统性地变革人们的工作和生活，对知识发现 与传播模式的重塑尤为显著。作为连接知识与决策的桥梁、提供智慧方案的载体，智库更须积极拥抱人 工智能，探索人工智能赋能智库研究的新范式。 智库研究是一门学科交叉、领域综合的大科学。2025年初，中国科学院战略咨询院组建研究团队， 汇聚多个研究方向的专家力量，历时10个月完成《人工智能赋能智库研究："AI+智库双螺旋法"的变革 范式与实践》，全书分3篇共12章，系统构建"AI+智库 ...

郑秀文代表学校向莅临参会的各位嘉宾表示热烈欢迎，并介绍了学校基本情况，特别是近年来学校 在智库研究、建设方面的努力探索和基本经验。他指出，新型智库建设在服务国家治理体系和治理能力 现代化、推动区域高质量发展中始终发挥重要作用，学校始终将智库建设作为提升学校综合实力与社会 服务能力的关键抓手，予以高度重视和积极推动。他强调，高校智库建设必须扎根学科、面向现实、开 放协同、久久为功。师范院校的智库发展，要紧扣"教育"主线，辐射关联领域，在服务教育强国强省建 设和区域经济社会发展中找准位置、发挥不可替代的作用。 12月6日，山东省智库联合会(山东智库联盟)2025年年会在齐鲁师范学院举办。本次年会深入学习 贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，聚焦智库高质量发展，共谋服务现代化强省建设新路径。山东社会科学 院党委副书记、院长胡钦晓，齐鲁师范学院党委副书记、校长郑秀文出席会议，齐鲁师范学院党委副书 记赵敏出席会议并主持"泰山智库讲坛"。会议开幕式由山东社会科学院党委副书记韩建文主持。山东智 库联盟成员单位、新闻媒体代表200余人参加会议。 胡钦晓在开幕式致辞中指出，"十五五"时期，我国智库发展既面临难得历史机遇，也肩负着重大时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a pervasive sense of "economic stagnation" among many American households due to high borrowing costs, decreasing job opportunities, and increasing economic and political uncertainty [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut may have boosted the stock market, but economists believe it will have little impact on ordinary Americans, who continue to face significant challenges [1] - Economic uncertainty, rising tariffs, inflation, and recession risks are contributing to a sense of helplessness among American consumers [1] Employment Trends - Monthly home sales in the U.S. have hit a low point, and job recruitment activities have significantly stalled, with only one-third of the new jobs added in the past three months compared to last summer [1] - Census data indicates a decline in the frequency of Americans moving to new homes or cities [1] Public Sentiment - A joint poll by The Washington Post and Ipsos reveals that 63% of surveyed Americans believe it is a bad time to find a job [1] - Concerns about increased tariffs and tightened immigration policies potentially reigniting inflation and creating further economic uncertainty are prevalent among the public [1]

Core Points - Japan's birth rate in the first half of the year has hit the lowest record since comparable data began in 1969, with a total of 339,280 births, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a continuing trend of declining birth rates [2][4] - The number of marriages has also declined, with 238,561 couples marrying, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, marking the first decline in two years [4] - The natural population decrease stands at -497,538, with deaths reaching 836,818, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, marking 21 consecutive years of natural population decline [4] Regional Analysis - All prefectures in Japan are experiencing natural population decline, prompting the government to implement the "Children's Future Strategy" aimed at reversing the declining birth rate [6] - The government plans to invest approximately 3.6 trillion yen before 2028 to address this issue, although the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain [6] - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the declining birth rate, as restrictions limited social interactions, leading to fewer marriages and subsequently fewer births [6] Future Projections - Predictions indicate that the birth rate will continue to decline by over 3% in 2025, which is significantly higher than the 1% declines observed in the 2000s [7] - The fertility rate among married women is also on a downward trend, making significant improvements in birth rates unlikely [7] Childcare and Enrollment - As of April 1, 2025, the number of children unable to enter childcare facilities is 2,254, a significant decrease from the peak of 26,081 in 2017, with 87.9% of municipalities reporting zero waiting children [8] - The primary reasons for the decrease in waiting children include the expansion of childcare capacity and lower-than-expected application numbers [8] - The city of Otsu has the highest number of waiting children at 132, attributed to difficulties in securing childcare staff [10] Policy Adjustments - The government is shifting its approach to childcare, planning to consolidate or abolish facilities in areas with declining demand, while increasing subsidies for after-school care and children's cafeterias [10] - There is a concern regarding individuals intentionally applying for childcare facilities to extend their benefits, which has been identified as a significant issue [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) maintains its economic growth forecast for South Korea at 0.8% for this year, despite the last-minute trade agreement with the U.S. that mitigated the impact of punitive tariff increases [1] Economic Growth Forecast - KDI's forecast for South Korea's economic growth remains unchanged at 0.8% for this year, consistent with its May prediction [1] - The positive impact of government stimulus plans on consumer confidence is being offset by declining construction investment and ongoing weak exports due to U.S. tariff increases [1] Trade Agreement Impact - The recent trade agreement reduced the proposed U.S. tariff cap on South Korean exports from 25% to 15%, helping South Korea avoid more severe economic repercussions [1] - However, the new terms are less favorable than the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and KDI warns that current tariff levels and uncertainties remain high compared to previous years [1] Export Growth Outlook - KDI projects only moderate growth in goods exports over the next two years, as the negative effects of tariff increases are expected to become apparent starting in the second half of this year [1]

Group 1 - The core concept of "Dual New Economics" is the division of economic development into "new stock economics" and "new increment economics," which are interrelated and provide new insights for China's economic transformation [2][3] - The theory emphasizes the dialectical relationship between new stock and new increment, where new stock serves as the foundation for new increment, and new increment guides the development of new stock [3][10] - The theory also highlights the importance of industrial integration, regional collaborative development, and the incorporation of cultural factors into economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - The "Fifty-Six Think Tank" was established based on the principles of Dual New Economics, focusing on sustainable urban development and city cluster research [4] - The think tank employs a problem-oriented research approach, a systematic analysis framework, and interdisciplinary methods to address urban development issues [4] - The research outcomes aim to provide policy applications and scientific recommendations for government decision-making [4] Group 3 - New stock economics focuses on transforming traditional industries through content innovation, flow reconstruction, and structural optimization to create new value [5][6] - New increment economics emphasizes the role of digital technology, innovation ecosystems, and data value extraction in driving economic growth [9] - The integration of new stock and new increment is essential for fostering innovation and enhancing competitiveness in various industries [10] Group 4 - The "7+3" cross-regional cooperation model proposed by the Fifty-Six Think Tank aims to promote coordinated regional development and optimize resource allocation [14][15] - This model recognizes the non-uniform development of regions and seeks to leverage complementary advantages for overall efficiency [14] - Successful case studies, such as the collaboration between Yunnan and Guangdong, demonstrate the practical application of this model [18] Group 5 - The "56+N" cross-national cultural cooperation model emphasizes cultural diversity and economic integration, promoting international cultural exchange and cooperation [20][21] - This model aims to enhance cultural confidence and recognition through collaborative cultural initiatives and the development of international cultural tourism standards [21][22] - Practical applications of this model include the establishment of cultural IPs and cross-border tourism routes to foster global cultural connections [22][24] Group 6 - The evaluation system for high-quality urban cluster development is based on innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing [25][26] - Key indicators include economic growth rates, innovation-driven metrics, and measures of social equity and environmental sustainability [26][27][28] - The focus is on creating a comprehensive framework that assesses urban cluster performance across multiple dimensions [25] Group 7 - The paths for urban cluster innovation development involve building shared innovation platforms, leveraging digital technologies, and facilitating talent mobility across regions [29][30] - The integration of traditional industries with emerging sectors is crucial for fostering new business models and enhancing economic resilience [31] - Collaborative governance mechanisms and digital governance capabilities are essential for modernizing urban cluster management [37]

Core Viewpoint - The IMK research institute indicates that the proposed 30% tariff by the U.S. on EU imports will negatively impact Germany's economic growth by approximately 0.25 percentage points over the next two years [1] Economic Impact - Germany's economic growth rate is projected to be zero for this year and 1.2% for the next year due to the tariffs [1] - Prior forecasts by IMK suggested that Germany's economy would begin to recover in the fourth quarter, with an average growth rate of 0.2% by 2025 and a 1.5% growth next year driven by public investment and defense spending plans [1] Recommendations - IMK emphasizes that the rapid implementation of planned public investment initiatives could significantly mitigate economic risks for Germany [1] - The institute also notes that the economic loss for the U.S. will be greater than that for Germany, highlighting the importance of the U.S. as a key export market for Germany, accounting for nearly 10% of its exports [1]

Group 1 - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 to 0.8%, marking the first prediction of growth below 1% since 1990, raising concerns of an "economic recession" [1] - KDI predicts that South Korea's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year will be only 0.3%, with a recovery to 1.3% in the second half, resulting in an annual growth rate of 0.8%, down from a previous forecast of 1.6% made just three months ago [1] - The main factors dragging down South Korea's economy include deteriorating external conditions and persistently weak domestic demand, influenced by rising trade protectionism in the US and Europe, weak global demand, a sluggish real estate market, high interest rates, and low consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - In response to the economic situation, presidential candidates in South Korea are focusing on "economic livelihood" in their campaigns, with the Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung advocating for a fair market order to support small and medium enterprises [2] - The People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo emphasizes activating market vitality through an "economic freedom development model," promising to implement measures such as deregulation, tax cuts, and subsidies to enhance the business environment and encourage innovation [2]