固定收益点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告 12 月财政数据点评：收支承压，紧平衡加据 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 事件：2026 年 1 月 30 日，财政部公布了 2025 年全国财政收支情况。一 般公共预算收入 21.6 万亿元，一般公共预算支出 28.7 万亿元；政府性基 金收入 5.77 万亿元，政府性基金支出 11.29 万亿元。 核心观点：2025 年 12 月财政运行呈现"收入大幅下滑、支出降幅收窄"的 显著特征，全年看财政主要指标"收入略欠、支出滞后、基金缺口扩大"， 均未完全达到年初预算目标。同时，结构性矛盾突出，中央收入大幅下降， 拖累一般公共预算收入转负；财政支出增速持续回落，资金落地节奏偏缓； 土地出让金收入疲软，拖累政府性基金收支。往后看，在财政紧平衡格局 下，收入端修复仍面临内需疲软和盈利承压双重约束，支出端更依赖加快 资金拨付和形成实物工作量对冲下行压力。重点关注"提高资金使用效率、 推动跨年项目加速落地" ...

本文字数：1663，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 2026.01. 26 日本百货商店销售额的下滑在去年年末尤为明显。数据显示，受入境消费表现疲软影响，去年12月日本全 国百货商店免税销售额为519亿日元，同比下降17.1%，连续第二个月下滑。 日本旅游界人士认为，日本首相高市早苗的不当言论已对日本零售、住宿、餐饮等多个社会经济领域造成冲 击。自高市发表错误言论后，中国赴日游客数量开始显著减少。中国游客曾是赴日国际游客的最大群体，约 占国际游客总数的四分之一。 入境消费疲软 具体到企业来看，日本国内的主要百货集团，诸如三越伊势丹控股、高岛屋及J.Front Retailing旗下的大丸 松坂屋百货，H2O Retailing旗下的阪急阪神百货等先后公布的2025年12月免税销售额均低于上年同期， 降幅在10%~20%左右。数据显示，三越伊势丹（东京圈现有门店）下降15.8%，高岛屋下降11.1%，大丸 松坂屋百货店下降16.6%，阪急阪神百货店下降20%。从面向中国游客的销售额来看，高岛屋下降35%，阪 急阪神百货店降幅达40%。 这个冬天，对于日本的百货业而言，格外冷。 日本百货店协会最新 ...

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market exhibited a downward trend, contrasting with optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month [1] - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, fell by 1.67%, the CSI 300 by 2.46%, and the Wind All A Index by 2.22% [2] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 4.23%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 6.24%, indicating a significant adjustment in growth-style sectors [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as comprehensive services, banking, textiles, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing showed relative stability, while sectors like computers, automobiles, electronics, and non-bank financials experienced substantial declines [2] - Over 60% of stocks recorded negative returns, highlighting a marked reduction in market profitability [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The decline in the market is attributed to multiple factors, including a cooling global AI investment theme, which negatively impacted growth sectors [3] - Concerns over the domestic economic recovery were underscored by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49.0 in October and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in industrial profits [3] - An unexpected tightening of overseas liquidity, driven by strong U.S. employment data, has also contributed to market pressures [3] December Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in December, with a focus on economic fundamentals and liquidity events [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December and the Central Economic Work Conference in China are critical for market direction [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation sectors such as banking and utilities for stability [5] - Growth sectors with reasonable valuations, including energy storage, military, AI computing, power grid equipment, and semiconductors, are identified as having mid-term investment value [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights - The energy storage sector is projected to grow over 40% due to increased demand and policy support [6] - The military sector benefits from the transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, showing high earnings visibility [6] - The AI computing sector has seen a doubling in domestic server shipments year-on-year, driven by surging demand [6] - The power grid equipment sector is supported by accelerated construction and increased overseas exports [6] - The semiconductor sector is driven by demand from AI chips and automotive semiconductors, indicating strong earnings elasticity [6] Conclusion - The market will continue to navigate between "overseas liquidity pressures" and "domestic policy support capabilities" in December [7] - Investors are advised to monitor key domestic and international policy signals while maintaining a defensive position and gradually increasing allocations in high-growth areas [7]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a significant supply pressure due to continuous new capacity additions, while demand remains weak, particularly influenced by the real estate sector's downturn. The overall market outlook for PVC remains bearish, with high inventory levels and low prices persisting [1][27]. Supply Side Analysis - As of 2025, a total of 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian. The total new capacity for the year is expected to reach 1.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [4][5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.11%. The increase is primarily driven by the ethylene method, which saw a 9.78% rise [4][5]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic demand for PVC is heavily influenced by the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline in investment and construction activities. From January to August 2025, real estate development investment dropped by 12.9%, and new construction area decreased by 19.5% [7]. - Exports of PVC from January to August 2025 totaled 2.5752 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%. However, there are concerns about potential declines in exports due to rising anti-dumping measures in key markets like India [8]. Inventory Levels - As of last week, the domestic PVC social inventory reached 1.0364 million tons, an increase of 5.58% month-on-month and 23.54% year-on-year. The overall industry inventory has also risen, indicating a prolonged period of oversupply [15][16]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to a weak pricing environment for PVC. Despite ongoing losses in production methods, the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable [21][22]. Technical Analysis - The PVC market has been in a downward trend since reaching historical highs in 2021. The market is currently seeking support levels after breaking below key price thresholds [24][27]. Summary - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressures from new capacity additions, weak domestic demand due to the real estate sector's struggles, and high inventory levels. The overall outlook remains bearish, with cautious trading strategies recommended as the market seeks stability [27].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut of 50 basis points has caused significant turbulence in global markets, with A-shares showing an independent trend amid the tug-of-war between "positive effects" and "recession concerns" [2] - Northbound capital saw a record net inflow in a single day, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Both gold stocks and technology stocks experienced rare simultaneous gains, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] - The Chinese yuan appreciated sharply by 800 points, showcasing currency market reactions to the Fed's decision [3] Group 2 - There is a contrast between the expectations of external demand recovery and the reality of weak domestic demand, highlighting a complex economic landscape [4] - The liquidity easing measures are juxtaposed with the risks of earnings downgrades, indicating potential challenges for companies [4] - The policy toolbox is being tested against the threshold of market confidence, suggesting that investor sentiment is crucial for future market movements [4] - Major funds are increasing their positions in consumer electronics, while speculative funds are targeting convertible bonds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - Insurance funds are maintaining high dividend stocks, reflecting a preference for stable income amid market volatility [4] - This sudden change serves as both a stress test and an opportunity for value reassessment, necessitating a new cognitive framework for investors as the linkage between A-shares and global markets evolves [4]

Group 1 - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 to 0.8%, marking the first prediction of growth below 1% since 1990, raising concerns of an "economic recession" [1] - KDI predicts that South Korea's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year will be only 0.3%, with a recovery to 1.3% in the second half, resulting in an annual growth rate of 0.8%, down from a previous forecast of 1.6% made just three months ago [1] - The main factors dragging down South Korea's economy include deteriorating external conditions and persistently weak domestic demand, influenced by rising trade protectionism in the US and Europe, weak global demand, a sluggish real estate market, high interest rates, and low consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - In response to the economic situation, presidential candidates in South Korea are focusing on "economic livelihood" in their campaigns, with the Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung advocating for a fair market order to support small and medium enterprises [2] - The People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo emphasizes activating market vitality through an "economic freedom development model," promising to implement measures such as deregulation, tax cuts, and subsidies to enhance the business environment and encourage innovation [2]