[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 点评报告 "反内卷"的利润成绩单 ——7 月中国工业企业利润数据点评 20250827 | | | [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 固收分析师：洪子彦 ⚫ 深度视角：7 月利润数据有何亮点？ 政策受益行业来看，第三批 690 亿元补贴资金已下达，受益于政策对相关行 业需求侧的拉动，电气机械器材、电子设备等中游装备制造业利润出现上涨。 其中，消费品以旧换新政策带动计算机整机制造、智能无人飞行器制造、家用 清洁卫生电器具制造等行业利润大幅增长，产业链条相关的计算机外围设备 制造、敏感元件及传感器制造等行业利润分别增长 57.0%、51.9%。 7 月专项 债发行使用继续加快，"两重"领域项目及雅江项目继续拉动基建相关需求， 叠加反内卷"政策推动行业规范发展，有色金属矿采、有色金属冶炼行业利润 继续改善。政策向人工智能等新兴领域的发展倾斜，引导资本开支从传统行业 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to -0.7% in February, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][4] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1% in February, indicating a moderate recovery in prices [1][4] - Food prices contributed over 80% to the total decline in CPI, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 12.6% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.2% in February, with the average for January-February also showing a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year [2][7] - The main reasons for the PPI decline include the off-peak industrial production season and weak demand for construction materials [2][7] - The prices of production materials fell by 2.5%, while living materials prices decreased by 1.2%, with specific industries like coal processing seeing significant price drops [7][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The PMI data indicated an increase in raw material and finished product price indices, but the PPI only slightly narrowed, suggesting a discrepancy between perceived and actual market conditions [3] - The current policy uncertainty may lead to a cautious approach from enterprises, affecting production enthusiasm [3] - Positive signals from the upcoming Two Sessions may help restore market demand and improve production and demand dynamics [3]