Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was still negative, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous month. The year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was -1.5% (previous value -4.3%), and the cumulative year - on - year was -1.7%. The profit环比 was 18.5%, showing a marginal seasonal decline but higher than the same period in the past three years [2]. - The significant growth of upstream raw material profits drove the narrowing of the decline in industrial enterprise profits in July. Policy - driven price regulation led to a significant increase in commodity prices, promoting the profit repair of upstream raw material industries. However, due to rising upstream costs, the downstream consumer industry did not improve [3]. - The improvement of profit margin drag supported the repair of enterprise profits. The expansion of production slowed down, and the trend of negative price growth was marginally alleviated. The business pattern shifted from "trading price for volume" to "capacity clearance" [4]. - Policy - driven demand and infrastructure projects supported the improvement of profits in multiple industries. The profits of mid - stream equipment manufacturing industries such as electrical machinery and equipment and electronic devices increased due to policy support. The international trade pattern led to a differentiation in profit performance among industries [5][6]. - Enterprises were still in the active de - stocking cycle. The cumulative year - on - year decline in revenue restricted enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory. The deflation of prices was not improved, and the pressure of inventory depreciation remained [7]. - The profit data in July presented multiple contradictions. The profit pattern could be summarized as "policy - driven is stronger than market endogenous power, and the improvement of upstream and mid - stream is better than that of downstream". The bond market was affected by the profit data, showing a complex trend [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Observation: What are the characteristics of the profit data in July? - **Profit and Revenue**: In July, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was still negative, but the decline narrowed. The revenue increased slightly year - on - year, and the operating cost decreased synchronously, with the cost decline slightly higher than the revenue decline [2][3]. - **Industry Profit Trends**: The profits of upstream raw material industries improved significantly, while the downstream consumer industry was under pressure due to rising costs. The profit of mid - stream equipment manufacturing industries increased due to policy support [3][5]. - **Factors Affecting Profits**: Profit repair mainly benefited from the improvement of profit margin drag. The expansion of production slowed down, and the negative price growth trend was marginally alleviated [4]. In - depth Perspective: What are the highlights of the profit data in July? - **Policy - Benefiting Industries**: The third batch of 69 billion yuan in subsidy funds was issued, driving the profit growth of mid - stream equipment manufacturing industries such as electrical machinery and equipment and electronic devices. The policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones promoted the profit growth of related industries [5]. - **Export - Chain Industries**: In July, the export amount increased by 7.2% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports to non - US regions supported the profits of mid - stream industries, while exports to the US dragged down the profits of downstream consumer industries [6]. - **Enterprise Operation Status**: Enterprises were in the active de - stocking cycle. The revenue growth rate declined, restricting the willingness to replenish inventory. The asset - liability ratio decreased marginally, and the turnover period remained unchanged [7]. Forward - looking Judgment: What trends can be seen through the profit data in July? - **Profit Pattern**: The profit pattern was characterized by "policy - driven is stronger than market endogenous power, and the improvement of upstream and mid - stream is better than that of downstream". The new policy layout showed initial results, but there was still high uncertainty [8]. - **Bond Market Performance**: Although the total profit of enterprises improved, the structural data showed that the operating income was under pressure during the transition period. The bond market digested the profit data in a complex way, and the stock - bond correlation was strong [10].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to -0.7% in February, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][4] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1% in February, indicating a moderate recovery in prices [1][4] - Food prices contributed over 80% to the total decline in CPI, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 12.6% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.2% in February, with the average for January-February also showing a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year [2][7] - The main reasons for the PPI decline include the off-peak industrial production season and weak demand for construction materials [2][7] - The prices of production materials fell by 2.5%, while living materials prices decreased by 1.2%, with specific industries like coal processing seeing significant price drops [7][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The PMI data indicated an increase in raw material and finished product price indices, but the PPI only slightly narrowed, suggesting a discrepancy between perceived and actual market conditions [3] - The current policy uncertainty may lead to a cautious approach from enterprises, affecting production enthusiasm [3] - Positive signals from the upcoming Two Sessions may help restore market demand and improve production and demand dynamics [3]