Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [1][2] - The production index remained above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [3] - High-tech manufacturing continued to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, reflecting a positive development trend in this sector [3] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment in this sector [1][4] - The service industry business activity index was at 49.5%, with significant activity in financial services, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0%, indicating weak sentiment [4] - The construction industry experienced a notable decline, with its business activity index at 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday [4] - Despite the decline in current activity, the service industry business activity expectation index rose to 57.1%, indicating increased confidence among service sector enterprises [4] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was recorded at 49.8%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities [1][5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the overall composite PMI output index [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 对于制造业PMI回落的原因，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读时提到，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不 足。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年12月制造业PMI超预期回升至50.1%，产需全面改善下，春节备货情况有所前置，导致本月 数据回落。 从供需来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于56.0%，产需释放较快。 需要注意的是，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区 间。 另外，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

价格指数双双回升。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指 数分别为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界 点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数均升至55.0%以上，相关行业原材料采购和产品销售价格总体水平上涨。 大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显 现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 光明日报北京1月31日电（记者董蓓）国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会31日发布的 数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.3%、49.4%和49.8%。生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张。 《光明日报》（2026年02月01日 02版） 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读数据时说，从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, indicating cautious expansion due to demand decline[16] - New orders and new export orders indices were 49.2% and 47.8%, respectively, both declining by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points[16] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months above the critical point[19] - Raw material inventory and finished goods inventory indices were 47.4% and 48.6%, respectively, indicating a decrease in raw material stock[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 49.5%, with significant divergence among industries[22] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal slowdowns[24] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on boosting overall demand and ensuring spending increases[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand needs to be stimulated[28]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in January fell below the growth line, indicating a decline in economic activity and a need for stronger foundational support for economic recovery [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [5]. - The new orders index dropped to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand [5]. - Seasonal factors and changes in the export environment are contributing to the slowdown in market demand, with the new export orders index at 47.8%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing [7]. - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, indicating an improvement in overall price levels in the manufacturing market [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector [10]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with the business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% [10][11]. - The service industry anticipates a boost from the upcoming Spring Festival, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating optimism for consumer-related services [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is expected to be influenced by changes in export growth, the domestic real estate market, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [8]. - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to gain momentum [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, indicating a decline from the previous month [1][2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production [2] - New orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in market demand [2] - Certain industries, such as agricultural processing and aerospace, show strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like automotive and fuel processing are below the critical point [2] - Price indices for raw materials and factory output have risen, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking an improvement in overall market prices [2] Group 2: Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises have PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, showing a decline [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend [3] - Consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, indicating a downturn in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, reflecting a decrease from the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector is below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has dropped to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index is at 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, contributing to the composite index's decline [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4][5] - The new orders index for January was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand due to seasonal factors and changes in export environments [4][5] - The production index remained in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing production [5] Group 2: Price Levels and Economic Conditions - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 56.1%, and the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [5] - The proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased to 54.9%, down 9.4 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the overall economic climate is affected by seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the construction sector [9] - The service sector showed relative stability, with the service business activity index slightly declining by 0.2 percentage points, remaining around 49.5% [10] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.1%, indicating an optimistic outlook, particularly for consumption-related services during the upcoming Spring Festival [10]