证券研究报告 | 2025年08月20日 纺织服装双周报（2508 期） 优于大市 7 月服装社零增速延续放缓，户外装备和母婴用品新股梳理 行情回顾：8 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势基本与大盘一致，纺织制造板块表现 优于品牌服饰，分别+4.2%/3.4%；港股纺服指数 8 月以来+4.2%，与大盘比 反弹较为明显。重点关注公司中涨势领先的包括：特步国际(9.4%)/波司登 (8.5%)/百隆东方(8.5%)/裕元集团(8.2%)/李宁(8.1%)/开润股份(7.7%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：7 月服装社零同比增长 1.8%，增速环比轻微放缓， 较上月回落 0.1 百分点。2）电商：7 月电商增速环比回升明显，运动户外增 长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲服饰/家纺/个护分别+11%/+26%/ +2%/+10%/0%。运动服饰多数品牌出现双位数上升，增速领先的品牌包括迪 桑特(63%)/彪马(41%)/露露乐蒙(39%)；户外服饰整体涨势明显，凯乐石 (137%)/可隆(117%)/始祖鸟(113%)增速领先；休闲服饰品牌分化，江南布衣 (50%)/哈吉斯(40%)相对强劲；家纺增速领先的品牌包括亚朵星球 ...

纺织制造观点：1）宏观层面：伴随 7 月初越南对美出口关税政策落地， 7 月越南纺织品出口增速环比提速至 16.7%，鞋类出口同比增速转正至 4.5%；7 月中国纺织品出口增速达 0.5%，环比出现改善，服装/鞋类出 口未出现企稳迹象，同比-0.6%/-7.7%；7 月越南/印尼/印度 PMI 均环比 上升，分别+3.5/2.3/0.7。内外棉价格 8 月以来呈现小幅波动态势，分 别-0.7%/+1.8%。2）微观层面：7 月台企营收仍受台币汇率波动影响， 美元口径大部分实现正向增长；预期三季度后汇率和关税影响减弱。聚 阳客户预计 2026 年初涨价或刺激订单回升。志强三季度订单能见度高， 营运预计与去年同期持平。裕元下半年受关税及宏观经济不确定性影 响，客户下单倾向保守，订单能见度低，预计第三季因淡季效应及去年 高基数存在压力，第四季出货双数预计达到全年最高。关税主要由品牌 方向下游转嫁，代工厂分摊关税预计在 3%以内。 专题梳理：户外装备和母婴用品新股梳理。1）不同集团（H02065.HK）： 中高端母婴耐用品龙头，高端耐用产品立品牌、大众消费产品扩规模。 2)乐欣户外（H02046.HK）：全球领先钓鱼 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The profitability turning point for BC technology has been reached, with Aishuo achieving a quarterly profit of 130 million and Longi reducing losses by 2.8 billion [2][3] - In the context of widespread losses in the main photovoltaic industry chain, the excess returns of BC technology have been realized, and prices in the industry chain are expected to recover in the second half of the year [3] - Key beneficiaries in the main chain include leading BC companies, while auxiliary materials and equipment related to BC technology are also expected to benefit from increased shipments [4][6] Group 2: Maternal and Infant Industry - The introduction of a 3600 yuan subsidy is expected to stimulate consumption among 20 million families, unlocking a market worth over 100 billion, with the lower-tier market being the biggest winner [2][8] - The expected continuation of local childcare subsidy policies under national guidance will lower family childbirth costs and boost birth intentions, particularly benefiting maternal and infant consumer goods [8][9] - Related beneficiaries include maternal and infant retail channels, product manufacturers, and early education institutions, with specific companies identified as key players in this sector [8][9]