专题报告 2025-12-30 氧化铝：持续反弹还需越过几重山？ 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 2025 年 12 月 26 日，五国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，文章中提到对氧 化铝和铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，市场对氧化铝后市供给收缩政策落地预期提高，期货价格 大幅反弹。但持续反弹仍面临三重困境：过剩的冶炼端、成本支撑下移和到期仓单交割压力。 展望后市，氧化铝持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿 挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。短期建议观望为主，追多性价比不高，若未见现实端减产 动作，可以等待机会逢高布局近月空单。国内主力合约 AO2602 参考运行区间：2400-2900 元/ 吨，需重点关注国内供应端政策、几内亚矿石政策。 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 核心观点：价格持续反弹仍面临三重压力，关注国内外政策变动 有色金属研究 | 氧化铝 1、冶炼端关注国内政策落地 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 118 million tons (40.3% increase) and Australia 27.71 million tons (5.4% decrease) [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating a high supply level [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - Domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production as of October 17 was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - As of October 17, domestic alumina inventory was 4.639 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from late September but down $45 from late August, reflecting a weaker overseas price trend [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a continuous contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation of further declines in alumina prices may lead to losses in high-cost regions, increasing the likelihood of voluntary production cuts in the smelting industry [3][8]