新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日上期所氧化铝期货主力2605合约震荡大跌，日间交易收跌3.65%，国内氧化铝现货价格部分上涨。 宏观层面，海外风险偏好下降，美伊日内瓦启动谈判，市场资金谨慎，多空力量博弈，期市整体行情转 弱，氧化铝期货价格面临下行压力。 基本面方面，春节期间物流大面积停滞，氧化铝大量积压在工厂。节前部分氧化铝厂意外减产，刺激下 游铝厂及贸易商询价接货意愿增强。节后物流运力逐步恢复，氧化铝厂积极出货，厂内库存去化明显， 在途库存有所上升。不过，社会库存仍呈累库态势，截至2月26日，中国氧化铝社会库存达568.5万吨， 较前一周增加3.1万吨，持续对氧化铝价格走势形成压制。现货市场，交投氛围表现尚可。早间，终端 企业趁价格低位入场采购，市场交投热度温和上升；午后盘面持续走低，持货商选择持价观望，下游按 需谨慎采购，整体交易规模难以扩大。 综合来看，矿石价格持续走低，氧化铝成本支撑减弱。今年以来氧化铝供应端虽陆续出现减产，供应压 力有所缓解，但供应过剩格局未变，总库存持续累积，价格上方仍有压力。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 长江有色网2月27日讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 118 million tons (40.3% increase) and Australia 27.71 million tons (5.4% decrease) [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating a high supply level [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - Domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production as of October 17 was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - As of October 17, domestic alumina inventory was 4.639 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from late September but down $45 from late August, reflecting a weaker overseas price trend [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a continuous contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation of further declines in alumina prices may lead to losses in high-cost regions, increasing the likelihood of voluntary production cuts in the smelting industry [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]