近期，氧化铝市场利空因素较多，价格走势偏弱，后市重点关注冶炼成本支撑，以及冶炼行业主动减少运行产能的意愿。 今年以来，氧化铝注册仓单量波动较大。4月中旬之前，盘面价格大幅回落，产业套保意愿较强，仓单量持续增加；4月中旬至7月底，现货和盘面价格企稳 反弹，氧化铝库存回落，现货供应偏紧，仓单持续流出；7月底至今，现货价格反弹，冶炼利润修复，行业运行产能快速回升，基于过剩预期，仓单数量持 续增加，对盘面价格形成较强压制。 图为氧化铝和电解铝周度产量比值 库存方面，截至10月17日，国内氧化铝库存为463.9万吨，周度累库6.3万吨，较9月底累库13.4万吨。从5月底至今，氧化铝持续累库，合计累积84.5万吨。分 项看，港口库存周度累库2.9万吨，厂内库存无明显变化；电解铝厂内库存周度增长1.1万吨，站台／在途库存增长2.3万吨。目前氧化铝冶炼行业仍有利润， 暂无减产消息。 进口方面，截至10月17日，澳大利亚氧化铝装运港船上交货价（FOB）为323美元／吨，较9月底无变化，较8月底下滑45美元／吨。同期国内现货价格下跌 约8.26%，说明9月海外氧化铝价格走势更弱，进口利润走扩。结合航运船期，10—11月进口货源将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]