对于所覆盖的OEMs及供应商，高盛下调12个月目标价，幅度最多达12%，同时下调盈利预测平均约 16%，以反映2026年1月及第一季较疲弱的需求环境，以及原材料与内存成本上升。 高盛发布研报称，进入2026年，投资者对汽车板块的持仓相当偏低，主要关注三大问题:1)行业销量走 势；2)原材料及内存成本上涨；(3)潜在的进一步政策刺激。此外，该行评估了商品及内存价格上升的影 响，并根据商品价格涨幅、成本转嫁至车企的假设，以及因应不同电池容量及算力所对应的不同内存成 本而设定的高低端假设，识别潜在的利润率影响。 报告提到，根据中国基础材料1月监测，截至2026年1月，锂、钢、铝及铜的金属价格变动介乎下跌9% 至上涨80%。不过，高盛商品团队预期，上述金属2026年全年的价格涨幅将放缓至约0%至23%。与此同 时，该行全球半导体团队预期，常规DRAM价格于2026年预测将同比上升约180%，对比年初至今同比 升85%。 ...

作者|娅沁 声明|题图来源于网络。惊蛰研究所原创文章，如需转载请留言申请开白。 "我们两年没办年会了，团建也没了。"提到年会的缺席，建筑行业HR刘芳（化名）的情绪并没有任何波澜。过去两年，她所在的公司经历了人力大幅缩 减，从过去的两百多人到如今只剩下六十人，并且"春节前还会再减"。刘芳说："公司能存活下来，按时发工资就很好了。" 近几年，不少企业开启了"年会改革"，曾经雷打不动的年终仪式悄然退场或大幅缩水。当人们谈论它的变化时，语气里没有愤怒，甚至鲜有怀念，只有一 种近乎"麻木"的平静。这份平静背后，是一个正在压倒一切的共识——活下去。 一场集体仪式的"退化" 年会曾经是集体归属感的象征。上世纪八九十年代，由单位组织的联欢会可以说是年会的雏形：工厂礼堂作为年会场地、员工自发排练节目、单位负责采 购瓜子糖果，而举办这场联欢会的核心目的是营造集体归属感。 进入二十一世纪，随着市场化改革深入和经济增长加速，年会迅速演变为企业实力的展示窗口，活动规模和预算不断攀升。然而近年来，受多方因素影 响，年会在许多行业中逐渐收缩，甚至消失了。 "从2020年至今，我们公司已经不开庆祝色彩的年会了。"从事电力相关软件工作的江朗（ ...

Group 1: Durable Consumer Goods Industry - Companies reported an average of 35% of revenue from exports to China and 7% from exports to the U.S. [2] - Most companies are continuing to shift production overseas, with some accelerating the pace due to increased U.S. customer orders ahead of the tariff suspension period [2] - Visibility on price renegotiation remains low, with expectations that U.S. customers and end consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs [2][4] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Automotive manufacturers are optimistic about European market sales, with minimal impact from U.S.-China trade tensions [6] - Parts suppliers are still receiving new orders from U.S. factories, and many have successfully passed on tariff costs to customers [7] - Most suppliers are maintaining their current capacity expansion and capital allocation plans, with some considering building overseas factories [7][8] Group 3: Industrial Technology Industry - Orders for capital goods saw a pause in early April but returned to normal levels by the second week [9] - Companies are facing challenges in negotiating prices due to high tariffs, with many contracts structured to pass tariff costs onto customers [10] - Most companies are expanding capacity in regions like India, Thailand, and Mexico, awaiting clearer tariff policies [11] Group 4: Solar Industry - U.S. orders for solar products have slowed due to uncertainties surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act [15] - Companies are struggling with pricing negotiations as demand weakens, and concerns about potential high tariffs could further suppress downstream demand [15] - Some companies are considering reducing U.S. operations if risks and profitability do not align favorably compared to other regions [16][18]