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日度策略参考-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 06:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250828
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:56
1. Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint The raw sugar is still suppressed by the expected increase in supply and has difficulty rising. However, there is a risk of downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. It is expected to consolidate in the range of 15 - 17 cents per pound in the short term. The domestic sugar futures showed strength last week, and the spot market improved, but there is still resistance to high prices. The supply is tending to be loose, and there is pressure for a significant upward price movement. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will remain weakly volatile [1]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market:** The prices of "Sugar 2601" and "Sugar 2509" decreased by 0.21% and 0.83% respectively, the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.12%, the "Sugar 1 - 9 spread" increased by 76.09%, the main contract positions decreased by 0.81%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.67%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spot Market:** The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.50% and 0.26% respectively, the Nanning basis increased by 6.25%, the Kunming basis increased by 17.58%, the price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) increased by 0.02%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) increased by 0.03% [1]. - **Industry Situation:** The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 15.76%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 37.99%, the national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 3.36%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 3.04%, the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 10.44%, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23%, the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29%, and sugar imports increased by 160.00% [1]. 2. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint The situation of the upcoming new cotton purchase on the supply side remains to be verified, and the improvement on the demand side is not significant. Although the yarn inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, the profit has not improved significantly, and the situation of weaving factories is not as good as that of textile enterprises. The traditional peak season remains to be verified, and overall contradictions are not obvious. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market:** The prices of "Cotton 2509" and "Cotton 2601" decreased by 0.15% and 0.18% respectively, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.03%, the "Cotton 9 - 1 spread" increased by 1.56%, the main contract positions increased by 0.15%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 60.00% [2]. - **Spot Market:** The Xinjiang arrival price of "3128B" increased by 0.09%, the "CC Index: 3128B" increased by 0.05%, the "FC Index: M: 1%" decreased by 0.79%, the "3128B - 01 contract" increased by 2.34%, the "3128B - 05 contract" increased by 3.44%, and the "CC Index: 3128B - FC Index: M: 1%" increased by 6.24% [2]. - **Industry Situation:** Commercial inventory decreased by 16.9%, industrial inventory increased by 2.9%, imports increased by 66.7%, bonded area inventory decreased by 4.0%, textile industry inventory year - on - year decreased by 57.9%, yarn inventory days decreased by 1.6%, grey fabric inventory days decreased by 2.7%, cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, textile enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 0.4%, clothing, footwear, and textile product retail sales decreased by 24.6%, clothing, footwear, and textile product monthly year - on - year decreased by 5.3%, textile yarn, fabric, and product export volume decreased by 3.7%, textile yarn, fabric, and product monthly year - on - year increased by 131.7%, clothing and clothing accessories export volume decreased by 0.7%, and clothing and clothing accessories export year - on - year decreased by 176.8% [2]. 3. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint The supply of eggs across the country is generally sufficient recently, and the release of cold - stored eggs will increase the supply pressure. The downstream market digestion is slow, and traders are cautious. Overall, egg prices will maintain a bearish trend [5]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market:** The prices of the "Egg 09 contract" and the "Egg 10 contract" decreased by 0.69% and 1.26% respectively, the basis decreased by 70.64%, and the "9 - 10 spread" increased by 18.56% [5]. - **Spot Market:** The egg - producing area price increased by 2.83%, the price of egg chicks decreased by 11.11%, the price of culled chickens decreased by 7.68%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 2.88%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.84% [5]. 4. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint For palm oil, due to the potential positive effects of lower - than - expected production growth and a significant increase in exports, there is a chance for crude palm oil futures to return above 4,500 ringgit, and there may be a new high in the future. Domestically, after a short - term adjustment and stabilization, there is an opportunity for Dalian palm oil futures to start a rising trend. For soybean oil, it is uncertain whether the policy will increase the processing rate of large factories. The CBOT soybean oil main contract has fallen below the daily middle track, with strengthened support below, and is mainly in a short - term stop - falling adjustment. If the biodiesel policy is bearish, there is still room for the price to fall. Domestically, factory transactions have gradually decreased recently, and the purchase volume of traders' forward contracts is declining. There is a possibility that some factories in northern China will shut down due to environmental protection during the National Day parade, which will support the basis quotation. With the increase in later consumption, factory soybean oil inventory may decrease, and the basis may rise [8]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil:** The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.14%, the futures price of "Y2601" decreased by 0.84%, the basis decreased by 13.73%, the spot basis quotation decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Palm Oil:** The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged, the futures price of "P2601" increased by 0.02%, the basis decreased by 4.35%, the spot basis quotation decreased by 10, the import cost decreased by 0.15%, the import profit increased by 3.95%, and the warehouse receipts increased by 439 [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil:** The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.70%, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.31%, the basis decreased by 127.85%, the spot basis quotation increased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 400 [8]. - **Spreads:** The "Three - oil inter - period spread" decreased by 7.50%, the "Palm oil inter - period spread" increased by 2.63%, the "Rapeseed oil inter - period spread" decreased by 0.83%, the "Soybean - palm oil spread" (spot) decreased by 13.70%, the "Soybean - palm oil spread" (2509) decreased by 8.33%, the "Rapeseed - soybean oil spread" (spot) increased by 2.34%, and the "Rapeseed - soybean oil spread" (2509) increased by 7.33% [8]. 5. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint In the short term, the futures price will stand firm at the 2,150 support level and rebound slightly, but overall it remains weak and will fluctuate at a low level. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn will decrease, the current corn growth is good, the output may increase steadily, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is obvious, and the futures price valuation may move towards the new - season level [9]. Summary by Directory - **Corn:** The price of "Corn 2511" at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.28%, the basis decreased by 5.88%, the "Corn 11 - 3 spread" decreased by 4.17%, the Shekou bulk grain price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.07%, the import profit increased by 0.30%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 4.63%, the positions decreased by 0.11%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 6.49% [9]. - **Corn Starch:** The price of "Corn Starch 2511" decreased by 0.16%, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased by 2.16%, the "Corn Starch 11 - 3 spread" decreased by 23.26%, the "Starch - Corn futures spread" decreased by 3.15%, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 5.32%, the positions increased by 3.92%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. 6. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint The expected yield of US soybeans is still at a high level, but the recent dry weather in some major producing areas provides some support. There is also a possibility of new progress in Sino - US trade talks regarding US soybean exports. Brazilian premiums have been adjusted, but overall support remains strong. Recently, US soybeans have been boosted by the rise in US soybean oil and the expected increase in China's potential to purchase US soybeans, but the domestic market is more worried about future import pressure, and combined with the loose spot market, the futures price has weakened again. However, with good cost support, the downward space for domestic meals is limited. In the fourth quarter, the global soybean supply is not loose, and the cost support for domestic meals is still strong [13]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal:** The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.33%, the basis of "M2601" increased by 83.87%, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 1.17%, the spot basis quotation increased by 5, the Brazilian October shipment basis decreased by 64.2%, and the "Soybean Meal inter - period spread" (01 - 05) decreased by 11.48% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal:** The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.54%, the warehouse receipts decreased by 3.47%, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 20.27%, and the "Rapeseed Meal inter - period spread" (01 - 05) decreased by 12.70% [13]. - **Soybeans:** The spot price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 1.45%, the futures price of the "Soybean No. 2 main contract" decreased by 0.09%, the basis of the "Soybean No. 1 main contract" increased by 650.00%, the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu increased by 2.70%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract increased by 0.39%, the "Soybean - Rapeseed Meal spread" (2601) decreased by 1.98%, the oil - meal ratio (spot) decreased by 0.82%, and the "Soybean - Rapeseed Meal spread" (spot) increased by 6.67% [13]. 7. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core Viewpoint The spot price of live pigs is weakly stable with small fluctuations. The slaughter volume of farmers is gradually recovering, and the downstream slaughter and purchase are relatively smooth. With the start of school and the cooling of the weather in the north, there is a certain boost to consumption. The market has confidence in future demand, and the sentiment of farmers to hold back sales at low prices has increased. However, there may still be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the Double Festival. Recently, the impact of the epidemic in some areas has intensified, and short - term fluctuations have increased. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is room to reduce the weight, there is support for the long - term price, and a small amount of long positions in the far - month "01 contract" can be established below 14,000 [14]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market:** The basis of the main contract increased by 34.00%, the futures price of "Live Pig 2511" decreased by 0.83%, the futures price of "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.85%, the "11 - 1 spread" increased by 1.47%, the main contract positions increased by 1.88%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Spot Market:** The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Hebei changed by 0.36%, 0.73%, - 1.11%, 0.38%, 0.00%, and 1.48% respectively [14]. - **Spot Indicators:** The daily sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.03%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.59%, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged, the weekly sow price decreased by 0.03%, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 17.68%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 3.34%, and the monthly number of fertile sows increased by 0.02% [14][15].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250417
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 04:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].