今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602小跌，开盘价报352020元/吨，盘中最高报356350元/吨，最低 报342680元/吨，结算价报349000元/吨，收盘报352540元/吨，下跌290元，跌幅0.08%；沪锡主力月2602 合约成交量253086手，持仓量40737手，较前一日增加1939手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网 获悉，1月9日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报349400元/吨-352400元/吨，均价报350900元/吨,较前一日价格 下跌2000元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报349400元/吨-352400元/吨，均价350900元/吨，较上一交易日 价格下跌2000元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，当前全球地缘政治风险推动避险情绪升温，为美元指数 提供了短期支撑，但其上行同时面临美联储降息预期及疲软经济数据的压制，反弹持续性存疑。受此影 响，美股市场呈现显著分化：对政策敏感的军工、能源等防御板块走强，而科技股则承压回调。美元的 相对强势也直接压制了以美元计价的大宗商品价格，凸显了避险情绪、政策预期与增长担忧交织下，各 类资产间的紧密联动与博弈。此外，刚果（金）等主要资源地的局部紧 ...

今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获悉，12月30日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报320100元/吨-323100 元/吨，均价报321600元/吨，较前一日价格下跌22300元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报320750元/ 吨-322750元/吨，均价321750元/吨，较上一交易日价格下跌22250元/吨。 来源：市场资讯 今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602大跌，开盘价报334200元/吨，盘中最高报336740元/吨，最低 报316730元/吨，结算价报324380元/吨，收盘报326330元/吨，下跌16010元，跌幅4.68%；沪锡主力月 2602合约成交量441256手，持仓量43769手，较前一日减少6392手。 供应面呈现"复苏与累库"的背离格局。尽管刚果（金）地缘风险未解，但缅甸佤邦复产、印尼出口改善 及刚果（金）对华进口量增长，均指向主产国供应正在边际回暖。更为直观的压力来自库存端，国内外 社会库存同步累积，表明此前紧张的现货供需格局已实质性松动。 需求面则陷入"高价抑制与结构转变"的困局。当前价位已严重侵蚀下游利润，焊料等行业普遍采取低库 存策略，市场成交清淡，呈现明显的"高价反噬" ...

证券日报网讯12月29日，兴业银锡（000426）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，根据中国有色金属工 业协会锡业分会统计数据，公司2024年矿产锡金属8902吨，是国内第二大锡精矿生产商。 ...

期货市场：圣诞节美股休市投机资金获利了结，隔夜伦锡收跌0.81%；最新收盘报42490美元/吨，下跌 345美元，跌幅为0.81%，成交量为466手，持仓量23895万手较前一交易量减少358手；国内方面，夜盘 沪期锡弱势震荡，尾盘大幅收跌，沪锡主力合约2602最新收报332520元/吨，跌7360元/吨，跌幅为 2.17%；伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月24日伦锡库存量报4895吨，较前一交易日库存量增加220吨。长 江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货市场全线高开，主力月2602合约开盘报340100涨220元，9：20分沪锡主力 2602合约报331310跌8570元；沪期锡开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，年末市场呈现典型的 跨年特征，港股假期休市使得交投阶段性清淡，北向资金暂停也削弱了短期流动性。机构调仓与获利了 结意愿增强，推动部分资金从前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块流向估值相对较低、防御属性较强的蓝筹品 种。与此同时，多家上市公司披露减持计划，引发市场对部分热门标的估值压力的担忧，进一步强化了 资金的避险心态。在此环境下，以锡为代表的基本金属价格承压明显。一方面，前期支撑价格的供应紧 张预期减弱，海外主要 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年12月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな 铸造铝合金 文文文 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜增仓至接近记录水平、尾盘拉涨。国内现货分歧加大，现铜报94690元，上海贴水扩至310元，精废价 差一般。国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力，但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed macroeconomic environment affecting the tin market, with U.S. economic resilience and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle boosting market optimism, while inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions pose risks [1] - The LME tin price closed at $42,835 per ton, up $105, reflecting a 0.25% increase, while domestic Shanghai tin futures showed a decline, closing at 336,110 yuan per ton, down 5,570 yuan, or 1.63% [1] - The global macroeconomic landscape is at a critical juncture, transitioning from recession fears to a re-evaluation of growth and liquidity, but the market is expected to experience high volatility due to competing bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 2 - Supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts remain, but expectations of resumed production in Myanmar and normalized tin exports from Indonesia are easing previous price-driving fears [1] - Demand is facing negative feedback due to high prices, with traditional sectors like electronic soldering showing weakness, despite long-term positive prospects in emerging fields like semiconductors and photovoltaics [1] - The tin industry association has indicated that current tin prices are disconnected from fundamental market conditions, calling for a more rational market approach, which reflects a consensus against high prices and provides a negative outlook for market expectations [1]

Investment Highlights - Copper prices continue to rise, with LME copper increasing by 4.38%, driven by the cancellation of LME warehouse receipts and expectations of U.S. tariffs on copper in 2026, leading to a premium for COMEX copper over LME copper [1][2] - Precious metals are recommended to hold firmly, with COMEX gold down by 0.67% and COMEX silver up by 3.00%. The long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to continue, supporting the performance of precious metals [1] Copper Market - The upward trend in copper prices is attributed to the cancellation of LME warehouse receipts, which has intensified the inventory relocation logic. This has led to expectations of a shortage of copper in Europe and Asia [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper is further supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources for 2026, alongside expectations of increased U.S. government spending [2] Aluminum Market - LME aluminum prices rose by 1.24%, following the increase in copper prices. However, the aluminum market is showing signs of seasonal weakness, with a slight decrease in the aluminum water ratio [3] - Domestic aluminum processing companies are experiencing a marginal decline in operating rates, indicating cautious demand in the market [3] Tin Market - Tin prices have surged, exceeding 320,000 yuan/ton, primarily due to geopolitical factors affecting transportation routes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, a peace agreement between Congo and Rwanda may stabilize the market [3] - Long-term supply constraints for tin are expected to persist, driven by demand from AI computing and inference chips [3] Tungsten Market - Tungsten prices continue to reach new highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices surpassing 350,000 yuan/ton, influenced by rising overseas tungsten prices and domestic export controls [4] - The ongoing decline in domestic mining grades and production is contributing to a sustained upward trend in tungsten prices [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and supply disruption concerns have led to an upward drive in the non - ferrous metals market. Opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: CSPT's agreement on joint production cuts will cause copper prices to fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: Codelco is raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers. CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of ore - copper by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 2, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and copper inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. There are continuous supply disruptions in copper mines, and CSPT's production cut plan strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although demand is in the off - season, the market expects a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices will continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: Alumina spot prices remained stable in most regions on December 2. The willingness of futures - cash merchants to sell warehouse receipts is strong. On December 2, the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction needs to be observed. The domestic market is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak, so the alumina price is under pressure [11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macroeconomic sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium remained unchanged. Aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased. An Australian rescue plan aims to prevent a smelter from closing, and new Indonesian aluminum plants are in operation [12]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the dollar index is under pressure. The domestic economy is weakly stable. The supply side has high domestic operating capacity and overseas power shortages. The demand side is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: With strong cost support, the market will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts decreased. In October, the import volume of scrap aluminum increased year - on - year [14][15][16]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand is marginally improving, and inventory is rising. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: With the export window open, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 2, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake [18]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is rising. In the short term, zinc ore supply has loosened, and smelters' profitability is good. The export window has opened, but demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained unchanged. The price of lead ingots increased, and the premium was stable. Lead ingot inventory decreased, and some smelters were under maintenance [19]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and price difference are stable, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. Production has decreased due to smelter maintenance, and demand from battery enterprises is improving. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: With the easing of the supply side in Indonesia, nickel prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME and Shanghai nickel inventories decreased. An Indonesian company plans to focus on three HPAL projects next year. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices are slightly weaker, and inventory has accumulated significantly. Nickel prices will fluctuate [23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: With the stable price of nickel - iron, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On December 2, the spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [24]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. After the peak season, production and demand have decreased, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: With continuous supply concerns, tin prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's mining area is slow, and Indonesian exports are restricted. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Index - On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed slight declines, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively [151]. 3.2.2 Special Index No relevant content provided. 3.2.3 Sector Index - On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of - 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of + 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of + 8.85% [153].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

云南锡业集团(控股)有限责任公司原副总经理谢明跃被查 编辑：陈俊明 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中新网11月26日电 据云南省纪委监委消息：云南锡业集团(控股)有限责任公司原副总经理谢明跃涉嫌严 重违纪违法，目前正接受云南省纪委监委纪律审查和监察调查。 来源：中国新闻网 ...