固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 2026 年可转债年度策略： 内生时代，博弈稀缺 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-08 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251205：六部委"供需适配政策"精准发力"新消费" 新消费有望逐步接棒传统消费，成为拉动我国商品消费的主要动力 目前四季度到 26 年一季度仍是抢筹建仓的重要窗口，26 年主线仍将围绕 双碳+AI 双驱动的"源网荷储"全线链条展开，网荷衔接段、泛储题材以 及荷载端侧软硬件方向优于源网传统概念，这其中"扩散"会成为变奏 曲，关注三个维度带来的边际弹性 1）大盘向中小盘扩散；2）核心题材 向边缘题材扩散；3）第一梯队向第二梯队扩散；其中转债本身仍以中小 盘边缘题材第二梯队标的为主的特征将充分受益于这一边际变化；同时 待发行转债主线含量明显上升，一级半、次新策略带来的超额收益将倒逼 转债投资人拥抱科技，转债供需格局进一步优化，主线标的可获得性进一 步改善，内生增长下再融资资产搁浅概率收敛，或摆脱转债发行即内卷的 外生增长下的怪圈，26 年胜负手或取决于 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is resuming production increases, putting pressure on oil supply, while US oil production growth remains limited, suggesting global oil prices may stabilize within a mid-range [1] Investment Opportunities - Five major investment themes are recommended: 1. Low-volatility dividend-leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises 2. Large refining companies and other chemical sectors showing signs of recovery 3. Companies with overseas production bases 4. Sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements 5. Emerging demand in high-growth potential new materials industry [1] Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and ongoing projects in the large chemical sector are projected to decline from 984.8 billion to 897.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure and potential for industry recovery [1] Chemical Industry Profitability - The profitability of oil-based olefins is currently at a low point due to high oil prices, with ethane-based ethylene having a cost advantage of approximately 2000-2500 yuan/ton over oil-based and coal-based ethylene [3] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Certain chemical sub-sectors are showing signs of improvement, such as: - Pesticides: Prices may enter a recovery phase as supply stabilizes and seasonal demand returns - Refrigerants: A pricing cycle may begin following quota implementation - Civil explosives: Expected to benefit from national strategies like the Western Development [4] Globalization and Resource Opportunities - In the context of geopolitical instability, Chinese chemical companies with overseas bases may gain strategic advantages, while limited supply of quality mineral resources and rising extraction costs could push prices higher [5]