Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing tight supply and low processing fees, with expectations for a price rebound due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][5]. Group 1: PTA Production and Supply - As of early August, domestic PTA processing fees dropped to a historical low of 126 CNY/ton, recently recovering to around 200 CNY/ton, but still low [2]. - The production cost of PTA is approximately 4500 CNY/ton, with companies facing a loss of about 265 CNY/ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have shown some operational resilience, with several plants undergoing maintenance and restarts, leading to a slight increase in operating rates [2]. - As of August 20, the operating load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 78.62%, down 4.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of around 1.38 million tons and a demand of approximately 1.42 million tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 35,000 tons [2]. Group 2: PTA Inventory and Market Conditions - Due to the supply gap, domestic PTA inventory is declining, with social inventory at 3.6952 million tons as of August 15, down 36,300 tons week-on-week and 0.97% lower year-on-year [3]. - Factory inventory of PTA is at 3.66 days, down 0.16 days year-on-year, while polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.15 days, down 1.06 days year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry and Demand - The polyester industry is currently in a loss state, but conditions have improved, particularly for polyester filament, which has moved from a loss of 200-300 CNY/ton to a near breakeven point [4]. - As of August 20, the operating load of the domestic polyester industry was 86.46%, down 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for a slight increase in operating rates due to recent improvements [4]. - Polyester long filament inventory remains high, with significant de-stocking pressure; however, recent price reductions by some polyester companies have led to a decrease in inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, the PTA supply is tight, production companies are facing increased losses, and there is a demand for price rebound. The processing fees are low and need to be repaired, while the supply side shows lower operating loads and declining inventories, indicating a potential for price rebound supported by costs [5].

Group 1 - As of July 31, 2025, the stock price of Juneyao Airlines is 12.24 yuan, down by 0.39 yuan, representing a decline of 3.09% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day reached 410 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.52% [1] - Juneyao Airlines operates primarily from Shanghai and focuses on domestic and international passenger and cargo transportation [1] Group 2 - Research reports indicate that short-term demand fluctuations do not affect the long-term logic of the aviation industry, with market-driven ticket pricing and supply-demand improvements expected to drive industry profitability upward [1] - The growth rate of aviation supply is slowing, suggesting that the supply-demand relationship in the industry may further optimize over the next two years [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the allocation of active equity - oriented funds showed an obvious "dumbbell - shaped" structure. Funds increased their positions in the financial sector, with the allocation coefficients of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks rising to the highest levels since 2016, and that of joint - stock banks at the central level since 2016. The allocation coefficient of securities remained low. In the technology assets, the allocation coefficient of the computing power chain (communication equipment) reached the highest level since 2016, while the current quantile of the allocation coefficient of the AI software end (IT services, software development) was still low. The quantile of the current allocation coefficient of the pharmaceutical sector rebounded to the central level, with a relatively high quantile for innovative drugs and a low quantile for CXO. In addition, from a global perspective, sectors such as decoration building materials, decoration and decoration, chemical raw materials, chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, and aquaculture still had historically low allocation coefficients, and there were positive changes in both supply and demand recently [1]. - In Q2 2025, active equity - oriented funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The position in the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached a new high since 2019. From an industry perspective, funds increased their positions in communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media. The position in Hong Kong stocks reached a new high since 2019 (14%), and the increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio of sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, non - bank finance, and light manufacturing ranked among the top [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 25Q2 Overall Configuration Overview - In Q2 2025, active equity - oriented funds held stocks worth 2.9 trillion yuan, and the position rebounded to 84.5%. Funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The position in the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached a new high since 2019. From an industry perspective, funds increased their positions in communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media. The position in Hong Kong stocks reached a new high since 2019 (14%), and the increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio of sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, non - bank finance, and light manufacturing ranked among the top [3]. Concern 1: "Supply - demand improvement + low position" Concentrated in Anti - involution and Infrastructure Chains - From the perspective of chip distribution, assets with low quantiles of the Q2 2025 allocation coefficient (since 2016) were mainly concentrated in anti - involution, infrastructure, AI, and domestic demand industrial chains. Specifically, in the anti - involution area, assets such as chemical raw materials (chlor - alkali), chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, aquaculture, and energy metals had low quantiles of the allocation coefficient. In the infrastructure chain, funds reduced their positions in the real estate infrastructure chain in Q2 2025. Considering policy expectations, assets with relatively low quantiles of the allocation coefficient and positive catalysts included decoration building materials and decoration and decoration. In the AI field, funds increased their positions in the computing power chain in Q2 2025, with the chip congestion of communication equipment at a historical high, while the congestion of computer equipment, IT services, and software development was relatively low, and the quantile of the allocation coefficient of communication services since 2016 was still at the historical central position. In the domestic demand assets, under the continuous disturbance of tariffs, policy efforts on domestic demand might still be the baseline scenario. In Q2 2025, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of food processing, liquor, animal health, and flavor fermentation products were below 10%. Further considering high - frequency prosperity data, the supply - side perspective of financial reports, and policy expectations, sectors such as decoration building materials, decoration and decoration, chemical raw materials, chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, and aquaculture still had historically low allocation coefficients, and there were positive changes in both supply and demand recently [4]. Concern 2: The Fund Allocation in the Second Quarter Showed an Obvious Dumbbell - shaped Structure - In Q2 2025, the increase in positions of active equity - oriented funds showed a "dumbbell - shaped" structure. From the perspective of fund holding styles, compared with Q1 2025, the overall style of public funds in Q2 2025 shifted towards the theme - growth and large - market - value value at the two ends of the dumbbell. From the perspective of different industries, from the two perspectives of over - (under -) allocation ratio and allocation coefficient, active equity - oriented funds in Q2 2025 increased their positions in theme - growth directions such as AI, national defense and military industry, media, and communication catalyzed by geopolitical factors, as well as large - market - value value industries such as finance. The increase in positions in non - bank finance might be catalyzed by the "stable coin", and the increase in positions in banks might be related to bank valuation repair and the public fund reform plan [5]. Concern 3: Growth - Oriented Funds Chose Directions such as Communication and Military Industry, while Value - Oriented Funds Increased Their Positions in Banks - Considering funds with relatively obvious position changes: Funds that increased their positions in communication, national defense and military industry and other theme - growth industries in Q2 2025 reduced their positions in power equipment and automobiles, which might be internal position - switching within growth - oriented funds to choose new growth directions. In Q2 2025, value - oriented funds adjusted internally, increasing their positions in banks and reducing their positions in food and beverages. Growth - oriented funds switched from power equipment and electronics to pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally > 5 billion), and value - oriented funds reduced their positions in food and beverages and increased their positions in pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally < 5 billion). Funds that increased their positions significantly but still had a position < 80% in Q2 2025 increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology [5]. 25Q2 Public Fund Position Analysis: Style Shifted towards the Two Ends of the "Dumbbell" - **Position Style and Factor Split**: In terms of style drift, the position style of public funds in the second quarter shifted towards the "dumbbell" directions of small - market - value growth and large - market - value value. Compared with Q1 2025, the overall style of public funds in Q2 2025 shifted towards the small - market - value growth and large - market - value value at the two ends of the dumbbell (manifested as an increase in the proportion of the scatter plot in the first and third quadrants). The attention to stocks with low valuations and stable cash flows increased. Compared with Q1 2025, the attention of funds to stocks with low valuations and stable cash flows increased [15][20]. - **Heavy - Position Stock Concentration**: The concentration of fund heavy - position stocks decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, which might be affected by the decline in the stock prices of heavy - position stocks. In Q2 2025, the proportion of the market value of the top 50 heavy - position stocks in the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - position stocks decreased slightly to 51.5% (VS 52.4% in Q1 2025), and the concentration of the top 100 heavy - position stocks decreased to 62.7% (VS 63.3% in Q1 2025). After excluding the impact of stock price increases and decreases, the concentration of the top 100 fund positions in Q2 2025 was basically the same as that in Q1 2025 [23]. - **Increasing - Position Perspective Measurement**: From the two perspectives of allocation coefficient (position/standard allocation) and over - (under -) allocation ratio (position - standard allocation), the increase in positions of communication, national defense and military industry, and media ranked among the top, while the decline in positions of food and beverages, household appliances, and automobiles ranked among the top. The difference was that the ranking of the increase in the allocation coefficient of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care was higher than that of the over - (under -) allocation ratio, indicating that the subsequent space for funds to increase their positions might be limited. The ranking of the allocation coefficient of banks and non - bank finance was lower than that of the over - (under -) allocation ratio, indicating that funds showed signs of bottom - fishing [25]. - **Industrial Chain Perspective**: From the industrial chain perspective, in Q2 2025, pharmaceuticals and TMT were the main directions for funds to increase their positions, and the main reduction was in the real estate infrastructure chain, export chain, domestic demand consumption, and advanced manufacturing. From the perspective of the quantile of the allocation coefficient, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of the export chain and advanced manufacturing were at relatively high positions above 70%, while those of the other industrial chains were at low positions below 40% [36]. - **Index**: Among broad - based indexes, active equity - oriented funds had the highest increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio for the CSI 500, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, CSI 1000, and MSCI A50 constituent stocks, while the over - (under -) allocation ratio of the STAR 50, CSI 300, and SSE 50 constituent stocks decreased quarter - on - quarter. From the perspective of quantiles, in Q1 2025, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 since 2016 were at relatively high positions of 100%, 100%, 86%, and 89% respectively [67]. Fund Allocation Logic - **Main Position Change Directions**: Funds that increased their positions in communication and national defense and military industry in Q2 2025 mainly reduced their positions in power equipment and automobiles (robots), which might be internal position - switching of growth - oriented funds to choose new growth directions. Funds that increased their positions in banks reduced their positions in food and beverages, which might be internal position adjustment of value - oriented funds. Funds that increased their positions in pharmaceuticals were more diversified. Some growth - oriented funds switched from power equipment, electronics, and automobiles to pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally > 5 billion), and some value - oriented funds reduced their positions in food and beverages and household appliances and increased their positions in pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally < 5 billion) [70]. - **Allocation Directions of Funds with Increased Positions**: Funds that increased their positions significantly in Q2 2025 mainly increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology. Considering that the equity positions of public funds were still at a high level, funds that still had room to increase their positions (meeting the conditions of equity position > 30% in Q1 2025, position increase > 10 pct in Q2 2025, and equity position < 85% in Q2 2025) mainly increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology [84]. 25Q2 Fund Allocation Overview: The Allocation Intensity of Hong Kong Stocks Continued to Increase - **Overview**: In Q2 2025, the positions of active equity - oriented funds in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to increase quarter - on - quarter. The overall position was above the median since 2020. The performance of the common stock - type fund index and the partial - stock hybrid fund index in Q2 2025 was slightly weaker than that of the main indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index but stronger than other main market indexes, reflecting that the overall performance of fund heavy - position stocks was stronger than the market in Q2 2025. Active equity - oriented funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The current allocation ratio of the ChiNext had dropped to around one standard deviation below the median since 2010, while the allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board continued to reach a new high, and the overall science and technology attributes of public fund heavy - position stocks continued to strengthen. In addition, in terms of Hong Kong stocks, the allocation intensity of public funds to Hong Kong stocks increased in Q2 2025, rising by 1.0 pct quarter - on - quarter, and had reached the highest level since 2019 [89]. - **By Industry**: In terms of A - shares, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media had the highest increase in the allocation coefficient, mainly increasing their positions in leading stocks in sub - directions such as communication equipment, feed, and ground military equipment. Sectors such as household appliances, automobiles, and food and beverages had the highest decline in the allocation coefficient, mainly reducing their positions in leading stocks in sub - directions such as white goods, passenger cars, and liquor. In Hong Kong stocks, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, and non - bank finance had the highest increase in the allocation coefficient, while sectors such as commercial retail, non - ferrous metals, and banks had the highest decline in the allocation coefficient [104].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see an optimization in its industrial structure due to the upcoming growth stabilization work plan, which will promote the optimization of supply-side capacity for metals like copper and aluminum, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - Copper prices are anticipated to rise in the medium term due to rigid supply, low inventory levels, and a weakening dollar, while aluminum prices may also see significant elasticity due to supply rigidity and global low inventory levels [1] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties overseas and a weakening dollar, which highlights gold's safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index experienced a significant fluctuation, breaking through the 162-point resistance level but quickly falling back, indicating a false breakout signal [3] - The commodity index has undergone a complete wave correction since peaking in October 2021 and is currently in a new upward phase, with the third wave of growth just beginning [3] - The internal structure of the index shows clear differentiation, with the coal sector leading the market due to supply-side reform expectations and active procurement from downstream steel mills [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a rebound in the South China Commodity Index, which has risen over 6% since June and more than 2% in July, driven by low valuations and marginal improvements in fundamentals [5] - The glass market has shown a notable response to policy expectations, with a significant increase in production and sales rates, particularly in Hubei, leading to a substantial reduction in national inventory [7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The commodity market is experiencing a clear divergence, with strong price increases in sectors related to the new energy industry, black metals, building materials, and chemicals, while agricultural products remain relatively weak [8] - The black metal sector continues its rebound, with notable price increases in rebar and raw materials, while non-ferrous metals are experiencing volatility [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The continuation of the strong market performance depends on three key variables: the realization of policy expectations, the matching of supply and demand rhythms, and the degree of demand fulfillment during peak seasons [10] - Historical data indicates that the fourth quarter is a traditional peak demand season for glass, with significant construction activity expected, which could positively impact prices if inventory reductions continue [11] - The commodity market is at a crossroads, with seasonal patterns suggesting an upcoming demand peak in the second half of the year, particularly for coal, oil, and petrochemical products [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have experienced three consecutive days of gains, raising questions about whether this trend reflects a "de-involution" market or genuine improvements in supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures have seen a notable increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The recent price movements suggest a possible recovery in demand or adjustments in supply levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The article discusses the balance between supply and demand, questioning if the current price trends are sustainable [1] - There is speculation on whether the gains are driven by real market improvements or speculative trading [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady upward trend with LME copper prices increasing by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton, while domestic copper prices rose by 2.47% to 79,900 yuan per ton. Supply-side pressures are evident as the processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$44.81 per ton, indicating potential supply constraints [1][13] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton. However, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises has decreased to 61.8%, reflecting ongoing demand challenges [2][14] - Gold prices have decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a reduction in SPDR gold holdings, indicating a temporary decline in gold's safe-haven appeal [3][15] - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by export controls and stable production levels, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics and potential price support [3][27][30] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices are on the rise, with a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in processing fees indicating potential supply issues [1][13] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing, but demand remains weak as indicated by declining operating rates in the industry [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and reduced investment interest [3][15] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The copper market is experiencing a robust demand outlook, with potential supply constraints due to declining processing fees and reduced operating rates in key sectors [1][13] 2.2 Aluminum - The aluminum market is stabilizing, but the demand outlook remains weak, as evidenced by declining operating rates in the aluminum cable sector [2][14] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decrease in ETF holdings, reflecting a temporary decline in its safe-haven status [3][15] 3. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and stable production levels, with potential price support anticipated [3][27][30] - The antimony market is facing downward price pressure, but upcoming regulatory changes may provide a demand boost [4][31] - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing, with low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel sector indicating a positive outlook [4][32] 4. Updates on Energy Metals - Lithium prices have shown slight declines, but production levels are increasing, indicating a stable supply outlook [5] - Cobalt prices have increased, reflecting strong demand in battery applications, while nickel prices are mixed with slight fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is resuming production increases, putting pressure on oil supply, while US oil production growth remains limited, suggesting global oil prices may stabilize within a mid-range [1] Investment Opportunities - Five major investment themes are recommended: 1. Low-volatility dividend-leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises 2. Large refining companies and other chemical sectors showing signs of recovery 3. Companies with overseas production bases 4. Sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements 5. Emerging demand in high-growth potential new materials industry [1] Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and ongoing projects in the large chemical sector are projected to decline from 984.8 billion to 897.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure and potential for industry recovery [1] Chemical Industry Profitability - The profitability of oil-based olefins is currently at a low point due to high oil prices, with ethane-based ethylene having a cost advantage of approximately 2000-2500 yuan/ton over oil-based and coal-based ethylene [3] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Certain chemical sub-sectors are showing signs of improvement, such as: - Pesticides: Prices may enter a recovery phase as supply stabilizes and seasonal demand returns - Refrigerants: A pricing cycle may begin following quota implementation - Civil explosives: Expected to benefit from national strategies like the Western Development [4] Globalization and Resource Opportunities - In the context of geopolitical instability, Chinese chemical companies with overseas bases may gain strategic advantages, while limited supply of quality mineral resources and rising extraction costs could push prices higher [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PTA market is expected to continue its upward trend due to tightening supply and improving demand dynamics, driven by seasonal factors and inventory reductions [1][4]. - Recent data shows that the overall PTA operating rate in China has dropped to 70.3%, significantly lower than the same period in the past three years, with multiple major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [2]. - The polyester sector has seen an unexpected increase in operating rates, reaching 94.2%, which is a new high for the year, alleviating previous concerns about low demand [3]. Group 2 - The social inventory of PTA has been decreasing, with the turnover days dropping to 13.36 days, indicating a continuous destocking trend [2]. - The upcoming summer season in Europe and the U.S. is expected to boost gasoline consumption, which may positively impact the aromatics market, particularly in the context of PTA and PX production [4]. - The overall supply of PTA is anticipated to remain tight in May, providing strong support for price increases, as the polyester industry shows robust production and sales performance [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - After the holiday, PX prices rebounded after a decline due to improved macro - atmosphere and supply contraction. The strong oil market provided cost support, and expected maintenance of domestic reforming and PX devices further pushed up prices [9]. - PTA prices first fell then rose, following crude oil fluctuations. After the May Day holiday, PTA prices initially declined due to the drop in crude oil prices but later rebounded as geopolitical tensions drove up oil prices. With many PTA device maintenance and high - load operation of downstream polyester, PTA inventory decreased, and the price rose due to the resonance of fundamentals and cost [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil: After the Sino - US talks, oil prices are expected to be strong, but the risk lies in Middle - East situation disturbances. PX: Multiple domestic reforming devices have parking plans, increasing the possibility of production cuts in supporting PX devices. Low PXN also increases the expectation of maintenance. PTA: There will still be many device maintenance in May, and the operating rate will be at a low level for the year. Polyester: The short - term operating rate is estimated to be around 90%, with limited announced maintenance plans, especially for large polyester manufacturers. The rigid demand remains good. Weaving: The开机 rate has increased, and the probability of short - term negative feedback is low [10]. - Overall: PX is expected to operate strongly in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton; PTA is expected to operate strongly in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Strategy recommendation: Long positions can gradually take profits [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,472 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton (4.29%) from April 29. The settlement price was 6,446 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton (3.37%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was - 233 yuan/ton, and the average domestic PX spot price was 6,091 yuan/ton, up 19.33 yuan/ton (0.32%) from the previous period [15][16]. - **PX Spot**: The highest weekly transaction price was 785 dollars/ton, and the lowest was 737 dollars/ton. The CFR China weekly average price was 763 dollars/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week; the FOB Korea weekly average price was 739 dollars/ton, up 1.73% from the previous week [18][20]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,582 yuan/ton, up 142 yuan/ton (3.20%) from April 29. The settlement price was 4,568 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton (2.73%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was 98.67 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 582.5 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton (1.75%) from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,597.5 yuan/ton, up 67.5 yuan/ton (1.49%) from the previous period [23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX devices have load - reduction or maintenance situations. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 60% load, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical reduces the load of its 200 - ton devices to 70% in early May [31]. - **Asian PX Devices**: Some Asian PX devices have maintenance or load - change situations. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time is postponed [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA devices are under maintenance in May, such as the 150 - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 250 - ton device of Honggang Petrochemical. The weekly operating rate has decreased by 2.53% [37][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Optimistic sentiment has returned to the market, and the prices of European and American crude oil futures have increased by more than 4% this week. On May 9, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 61.02 dollars/barrel, up 2.73 dollars/barrel from May 2, and that of Brent crude oil was 63.91 dollars/barrel, up 2.62 dollars/barrel from May 2 [44][46]. - **Naphtha**: The blending demand for European naphtha has increased, reducing the expected volume of East - West naphtha arbitrage. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.30 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.11 dollars/ton [52][54]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process economic efficiency of PX has significantly recovered. The weekly average of PXN was 209.44 yuan/ton, with a 13.45% change from the previous period. The PX - MX spread has also increased, but the overall cash - flow is still in a loss situation [57]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has significantly recovered, driven by device maintenance. In April, the PTA processing margin fluctuated widely, and the spot processing margin expanded to around 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [61]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased. As of May 9, it was 483.2 tons, down 14.5 tons from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories have increased by 0.08 days, while those of polyester factories have decreased by 0.25 days [66][67]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products have generally increased. The average market prices of semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased by 1.46%, 0.65%, and 1.33% respectively from the previous reporting period. The average weekly sales of polyester products from May 6 - 9 were estimated to be 60%, and the average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.18% [73][80]. - **Weaving**: The开机 rate of weaving factories has gradually increased. As of May 8, the开机 rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, circular looms in Xiaoshao, warp - knitting machines in Haining, and warp - knitting machines in Changshu have all increased [88].