化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主要集中在产能增长压力较小的子行业 如制冷剂，刚需和供给集中的子行业如磷肥钾肥、食品饲料添加剂、部分小品种农药，内需为主或进口 替代的子行业如改性塑料、合成树脂、复合肥等。Q3主要化工品价格价差环比变动有所分化。 根据百川盈孚及Wind数据，截至2025年9月26日，主要化工产品2025Q3平均价格环比上涨、持平和下跌 产品数量占比分别为29%、3%和68%，其中，环比涨幅位居前五的品种分别是TDI、环氧氯丙烷、促进 剂D、R32和草甘膦，涨幅分别为25.7%/21.4%/15.6%/15.2%/13.2%。此外，截至2025年9月26日，主要化 工产品2025Q3平均价差环比上涨、持平和下跌产品数量占比分别为42%、0%和58%，其中，环比涨幅 位居前五的品种分别是电石法PVC、TDI、R32、草甘膦和R134a，分别涨幅为 62.1%/38.7%/24.2%/17.9%/14.0%。 行业观点：看好供需改善的子行业和进口替代的新材料 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，根据国家统计局数据，2025年前8月化学原料与制 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 基础化工 量增价跌，Q3 盈利分化 ——基础化工行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 行业整体：量增价跌，Q3 整体盈利下行 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年前 8 月化学原料与制品行业实现营收 5.95 万亿元， 累计同比增长 0.9%，年初至今增速持续回落；实现利润总额 2461 亿元，累计同 比下滑 5.5%；利润率 4.14%，较 24 年同期下降 0.35 个百分点，降至历史低位； 存货 1.02 万亿，同比增长 2.2%，其中产成品存货 0.47 万亿，同比增长 5.1%。地 产下行内需弱复苏，关税冲击外需，化工品量增价跌。截至 25 年 9 月 30 日，中 国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）3958 点，较年初跌 8.1%，同比跌 10%。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤、橡胶及塑料 PPI 当月同比分别-5.7%、-9.3%、-2.6%。 行业景气持续下行，投资增速放缓。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤固定资产 投资增速分别为-5.2%和 9.3%。 ❑ 化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the positive correlation between the performance of A-share industries and profit growth in Q2, suggesting a focus on sectors with improved supply and demand dynamics for the second half of the year [1][2] - Recommended sectors for investment include the new energy and photovoltaic industry chain, "two new" sectors, TMT hardware, military industry chain, and small discretionary consumption [1][2] - Specific areas of improvement in supply and demand include lithium battery equipment, wind power machinery, photovoltaic components, agricultural machinery, consumer electronics, and various consumer goods [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that companies with high or improving free cash flow yield are in sectors such as aluminum, copper, gold, and essential consumer goods like air conditioning and home appliances [2][3] - It notes that the overall net cash flow from operations for listed companies has improved, with capital expenditures declining, indicating a continued improvement in free cash flow [3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with real operational and intrinsic value improvements, including resources, consumer goods, and infrastructure construction [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 33.49 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.93 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.1% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 400 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 31.4% [1] - The company’s overall gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 6.4% and 2.1%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.4 percentage points and +0.2 percentage points [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company increased its production capacity by launching two polyester filament production lines, raising total annual capacity to 8.45 million tons, a 650,000-ton increase from the end of 2024 [2] - The PTA production capacity reached 7.7 million tons following the trial production of the third PTA unit at Dongshan Energy [2] - Sales volumes for various products in H1 2025 included 2.416 million tons of POY, 717,000 tons of FDY, 440,000 tons of DTY, 637,000 tons of polyester staple fiber, and 1.088 million tons of PTA, with significant year-on-year growth in PTA sales by 380.3% [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to improve market conditions, with increased operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [3] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with POY, FDY, and DTY inventories decreasing by 10.2 days, 11.9 days, and 4.9 days, respectively [3] - The concentration in the polyester filament industry is increasing, with the CR6 rising from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, indicating a more favorable supply-demand balance [3] Group 4: Future Projections - The company is expected to add approximately 2 million tons of new annual capacity in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.64 billion yuan, 2.29 billion yuan, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] - The expansion pace in the polyester filament industry is slowing, with a projected 2.3% year-on-year decline in total capacity for 2024 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing tight supply and low processing fees, with expectations for a price rebound due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][5]. Group 1: PTA Production and Supply - As of early August, domestic PTA processing fees dropped to a historical low of 126 CNY/ton, recently recovering to around 200 CNY/ton, but still low [2]. - The production cost of PTA is approximately 4500 CNY/ton, with companies facing a loss of about 265 CNY/ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have shown some operational resilience, with several plants undergoing maintenance and restarts, leading to a slight increase in operating rates [2]. - As of August 20, the operating load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 78.62%, down 4.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of around 1.38 million tons and a demand of approximately 1.42 million tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 35,000 tons [2]. Group 2: PTA Inventory and Market Conditions - Due to the supply gap, domestic PTA inventory is declining, with social inventory at 3.6952 million tons as of August 15, down 36,300 tons week-on-week and 0.97% lower year-on-year [3]. - Factory inventory of PTA is at 3.66 days, down 0.16 days year-on-year, while polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.15 days, down 1.06 days year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry and Demand - The polyester industry is currently in a loss state, but conditions have improved, particularly for polyester filament, which has moved from a loss of 200-300 CNY/ton to a near breakeven point [4]. - As of August 20, the operating load of the domestic polyester industry was 86.46%, down 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for a slight increase in operating rates due to recent improvements [4]. - Polyester long filament inventory remains high, with significant de-stocking pressure; however, recent price reductions by some polyester companies have led to a decrease in inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, the PTA supply is tight, production companies are facing increased losses, and there is a demand for price rebound. The processing fees are low and need to be repaired, while the supply side shows lower operating loads and declining inventories, indicating a potential for price rebound supported by costs [5].

Group 1 - The electric grid equipment industry is currently stable, influenced by ongoing policy support, which is a key variable affecting industry trends [1] - In the medium to long term, the industry is expected to enter a phase of high-quality development, with technological upgrades and market structure optimization becoming core competitive factors [1] - The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and future improvements in supply-demand relationships are anticipated as policy support increases and supply-side structural improvements occur [1] Group 2 - The Electric Grid ETF (561380) tracks the Hang Seng A-Share Electric Grid Equipment Index (HSCAUPG), focusing on listed companies in China's A-share market involved in power transmission, distribution systems, and related services [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of companies in the electric grid equipment sector, covering manufacturing and technical services [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Hang Seng A-Share Electric Grid Equipment ETF Initiated Link C (023639) and Link A (023638) [1]

Group 1 - As of July 31, 2025, the stock price of Juneyao Airlines is 12.24 yuan, down by 0.39 yuan, representing a decline of 3.09% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day reached 410 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.52% [1] - Juneyao Airlines operates primarily from Shanghai and focuses on domestic and international passenger and cargo transportation [1] Group 2 - Research reports indicate that short-term demand fluctuations do not affect the long-term logic of the aviation industry, with market-driven ticket pricing and supply-demand improvements expected to drive industry profitability upward [1] - The growth rate of aviation supply is slowing, suggesting that the supply-demand relationship in the industry may further optimize over the next two years [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the allocation of active equity - oriented funds showed an obvious "dumbbell - shaped" structure. Funds increased their positions in the financial sector, with the allocation coefficients of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks rising to the highest levels since 2016, and that of joint - stock banks at the central level since 2016. The allocation coefficient of securities remained low. In the technology assets, the allocation coefficient of the computing power chain (communication equipment) reached the highest level since 2016, while the current quantile of the allocation coefficient of the AI software end (IT services, software development) was still low. The quantile of the current allocation coefficient of the pharmaceutical sector rebounded to the central level, with a relatively high quantile for innovative drugs and a low quantile for CXO. In addition, from a global perspective, sectors such as decoration building materials, decoration and decoration, chemical raw materials, chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, and aquaculture still had historically low allocation coefficients, and there were positive changes in both supply and demand recently [1]. - In Q2 2025, active equity - oriented funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The position in the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached a new high since 2019. From an industry perspective, funds increased their positions in communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media. The position in Hong Kong stocks reached a new high since 2019 (14%), and the increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio of sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, non - bank finance, and light manufacturing ranked among the top [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 25Q2 Overall Configuration Overview - In Q2 2025, active equity - oriented funds held stocks worth 2.9 trillion yuan, and the position rebounded to 84.5%. Funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The position in the Science and Technology Innovation Board reached a new high since 2019. From an industry perspective, funds increased their positions in communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media. The position in Hong Kong stocks reached a new high since 2019 (14%), and the increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio of sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, non - bank finance, and light manufacturing ranked among the top [3]. Concern 1: "Supply - demand improvement + low position" Concentrated in Anti - involution and Infrastructure Chains - From the perspective of chip distribution, assets with low quantiles of the Q2 2025 allocation coefficient (since 2016) were mainly concentrated in anti - involution, infrastructure, AI, and domestic demand industrial chains. Specifically, in the anti - involution area, assets such as chemical raw materials (chlor - alkali), chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, aquaculture, and energy metals had low quantiles of the allocation coefficient. In the infrastructure chain, funds reduced their positions in the real estate infrastructure chain in Q2 2025. Considering policy expectations, assets with relatively low quantiles of the allocation coefficient and positive catalysts included decoration building materials and decoration and decoration. In the AI field, funds increased their positions in the computing power chain in Q2 2025, with the chip congestion of communication equipment at a historical high, while the congestion of computer equipment, IT services, and software development was relatively low, and the quantile of the allocation coefficient of communication services since 2016 was still at the historical central position. In the domestic demand assets, under the continuous disturbance of tariffs, policy efforts on domestic demand might still be the baseline scenario. In Q2 2025, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of food processing, liquor, animal health, and flavor fermentation products were below 10%. Further considering high - frequency prosperity data, the supply - side perspective of financial reports, and policy expectations, sectors such as decoration building materials, decoration and decoration, chemical raw materials, chemical products, silicon materials and wafers, and aquaculture still had historically low allocation coefficients, and there were positive changes in both supply and demand recently [4]. Concern 2: The Fund Allocation in the Second Quarter Showed an Obvious Dumbbell - shaped Structure - In Q2 2025, the increase in positions of active equity - oriented funds showed a "dumbbell - shaped" structure. From the perspective of fund holding styles, compared with Q1 2025, the overall style of public funds in Q2 2025 shifted towards the theme - growth and large - market - value value at the two ends of the dumbbell. From the perspective of different industries, from the two perspectives of over - (under -) allocation ratio and allocation coefficient, active equity - oriented funds in Q2 2025 increased their positions in theme - growth directions such as AI, national defense and military industry, media, and communication catalyzed by geopolitical factors, as well as large - market - value value industries such as finance. The increase in positions in non - bank finance might be catalyzed by the "stable coin", and the increase in positions in banks might be related to bank valuation repair and the public fund reform plan [5]. Concern 3: Growth - Oriented Funds Chose Directions such as Communication and Military Industry, while Value - Oriented Funds Increased Their Positions in Banks - Considering funds with relatively obvious position changes: Funds that increased their positions in communication, national defense and military industry and other theme - growth industries in Q2 2025 reduced their positions in power equipment and automobiles, which might be internal position - switching within growth - oriented funds to choose new growth directions. In Q2 2025, value - oriented funds adjusted internally, increasing their positions in banks and reducing their positions in food and beverages. Growth - oriented funds switched from power equipment and electronics to pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally > 5 billion), and value - oriented funds reduced their positions in food and beverages and increased their positions in pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally < 5 billion). Funds that increased their positions significantly but still had a position < 80% in Q2 2025 increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology [5]. 25Q2 Public Fund Position Analysis: Style Shifted towards the Two Ends of the "Dumbbell" - **Position Style and Factor Split**: In terms of style drift, the position style of public funds in the second quarter shifted towards the "dumbbell" directions of small - market - value growth and large - market - value value. Compared with Q1 2025, the overall style of public funds in Q2 2025 shifted towards the small - market - value growth and large - market - value value at the two ends of the dumbbell (manifested as an increase in the proportion of the scatter plot in the first and third quadrants). The attention to stocks with low valuations and stable cash flows increased. Compared with Q1 2025, the attention of funds to stocks with low valuations and stable cash flows increased [15][20]. - **Heavy - Position Stock Concentration**: The concentration of fund heavy - position stocks decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, which might be affected by the decline in the stock prices of heavy - position stocks. In Q2 2025, the proportion of the market value of the top 50 heavy - position stocks in the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - position stocks decreased slightly to 51.5% (VS 52.4% in Q1 2025), and the concentration of the top 100 heavy - position stocks decreased to 62.7% (VS 63.3% in Q1 2025). After excluding the impact of stock price increases and decreases, the concentration of the top 100 fund positions in Q2 2025 was basically the same as that in Q1 2025 [23]. - **Increasing - Position Perspective Measurement**: From the two perspectives of allocation coefficient (position/standard allocation) and over - (under -) allocation ratio (position - standard allocation), the increase in positions of communication, national defense and military industry, and media ranked among the top, while the decline in positions of food and beverages, household appliances, and automobiles ranked among the top. The difference was that the ranking of the increase in the allocation coefficient of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care was higher than that of the over - (under -) allocation ratio, indicating that the subsequent space for funds to increase their positions might be limited. The ranking of the allocation coefficient of banks and non - bank finance was lower than that of the over - (under -) allocation ratio, indicating that funds showed signs of bottom - fishing [25]. - **Industrial Chain Perspective**: From the industrial chain perspective, in Q2 2025, pharmaceuticals and TMT were the main directions for funds to increase their positions, and the main reduction was in the real estate infrastructure chain, export chain, domestic demand consumption, and advanced manufacturing. From the perspective of the quantile of the allocation coefficient, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of the export chain and advanced manufacturing were at relatively high positions above 70%, while those of the other industrial chains were at low positions below 40% [36]. - **Index**: Among broad - based indexes, active equity - oriented funds had the highest increase in the over - (under -) allocation ratio for the CSI 500, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, CSI 1000, and MSCI A50 constituent stocks, while the over - (under -) allocation ratio of the STAR 50, CSI 300, and SSE 50 constituent stocks decreased quarter - on - quarter. From the perspective of quantiles, in Q1 2025, the quantiles of the allocation coefficients of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 since 2016 were at relatively high positions of 100%, 100%, 86%, and 89% respectively [67]. Fund Allocation Logic - **Main Position Change Directions**: Funds that increased their positions in communication and national defense and military industry in Q2 2025 mainly reduced their positions in power equipment and automobiles (robots), which might be internal position - switching of growth - oriented funds to choose new growth directions. Funds that increased their positions in banks reduced their positions in food and beverages, which might be internal position adjustment of value - oriented funds. Funds that increased their positions in pharmaceuticals were more diversified. Some growth - oriented funds switched from power equipment, electronics, and automobiles to pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally > 5 billion), and some value - oriented funds reduced their positions in food and beverages and household appliances and increased their positions in pharmaceuticals (fund sizes were generally < 5 billion) [70]. - **Allocation Directions of Funds with Increased Positions**: Funds that increased their positions significantly in Q2 2025 mainly increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology. Considering that the equity positions of public funds were still at a high level, funds that still had room to increase their positions (meeting the conditions of equity position > 30% in Q1 2025, position increase > 10 pct in Q2 2025, and equity position < 85% in Q2 2025) mainly increased their positions in household appliances, food and beverages, and pharmaceutical biology [84]. 25Q2 Fund Allocation Overview: The Allocation Intensity of Hong Kong Stocks Continued to Increase - **Overview**: In Q2 2025, the positions of active equity - oriented funds in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to increase quarter - on - quarter. The overall position was above the median since 2020. The performance of the common stock - type fund index and the partial - stock hybrid fund index in Q2 2025 was slightly weaker than that of the main indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index but stronger than other main market indexes, reflecting that the overall performance of fund heavy - position stocks was stronger than the market in Q2 2025. Active equity - oriented funds increased their positions in the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions in the Main Board. The current allocation ratio of the ChiNext had dropped to around one standard deviation below the median since 2010, while the allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board continued to reach a new high, and the overall science and technology attributes of public fund heavy - position stocks continued to strengthen. In addition, in terms of Hong Kong stocks, the allocation intensity of public funds to Hong Kong stocks increased in Q2 2025, rising by 1.0 pct quarter - on - quarter, and had reached the highest level since 2019 [89]. - **By Industry**: In terms of A - shares, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and media had the highest increase in the allocation coefficient, mainly increasing their positions in leading stocks in sub - directions such as communication equipment, feed, and ground military equipment. Sectors such as household appliances, automobiles, and food and beverages had the highest decline in the allocation coefficient, mainly reducing their positions in leading stocks in sub - directions such as white goods, passenger cars, and liquor. In Hong Kong stocks, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, and non - bank finance had the highest increase in the allocation coefficient, while sectors such as commercial retail, non - ferrous metals, and banks had the highest decline in the allocation coefficient [104].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see an optimization in its industrial structure due to the upcoming growth stabilization work plan, which will promote the optimization of supply-side capacity for metals like copper and aluminum, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - Copper prices are anticipated to rise in the medium term due to rigid supply, low inventory levels, and a weakening dollar, while aluminum prices may also see significant elasticity due to supply rigidity and global low inventory levels [1] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties overseas and a weakening dollar, which highlights gold's safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]