核心观点 我们预计2025年四季度GDP同比增速为4.6%，经济运行呈现生产偏强、需求修复偏温和的格局：供给端，工业生产延续稳增长态势，对增长形成主要支 撑；需求端，12月社零同比预计小幅回升，以旧换新资金前置与元旦"拼假"效应对消费构成托底，但汽车在销量同比下滑与年末加大折扣导致的量价双压 下仍是主要拖累。投资端仍处低位，制造业投资相对有韧性，但基建偏弱、地产继续承压，制约内需弹性。外需保持韧性，出口增速预计维持正增长。价 格层面，CPI温和、PPI负值收敛但通胀修复仍偏缓。金融数据仍显示信用扩张偏弱，M1、M2增速小幅回落。综合来看，一方面，12月经济活动相较上 月总体加快，12月随着内外需修复及年底各行业年度收官冲刺，有望延续向上态势，顺利完成全年5%左右增长目标难度不大；另一方面，蓄势待春归， 为2026年一季度开门红蓄势。 基于以上判断，大类资产方面，权益市场，预计流动性驱动下A股将在2026年继续走强，低波红利与科技成长交织的结构化行情，出口出海链条受益外需 改善同样具备机会。债券市场，预计10年期国债收益率在1.5-2%区间宽幅震荡。 内容摘要 >>生产：工业生产引领增长，蓄力一季度开门红 我们 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 周二A股市场出现了震荡中重心有所下移的态势。其中，得益于AI硬件主线的持续强势，创业板指在早盘一度上涨逾1%。但奈何跟风买盘力量渐趋 减退，创业板指在午市后受阻回落，市场人气渐趋散淡，上证综指、深证成指等主要股指也随之回落。看来，AI主线的号召力有所下降，短线A股 尚需进一步震荡蓄势。 AI主线迎来新催化信息 低波红利主线挺身护盘 由此可见，在当前时节点，A股整体的交易情绪是相对低迷的。一方面是因为全球资本市场处在"等待"中盘整的态势。因为美联储12月降息信息即 将明朗，全球资本市场的动量资金均在等待此信息明朗后才会作出新的交易决策。所以，无论是美股还是欧洲股市，抑或是亚太股市，在本周初的 走势均呈现出窄幅震荡的格局，这必然会影响到A股短线动量资金的进一步布局。 另一方面则是因为本土机构资金仍在观望来年的各项政策，抑制了本土动量资金冬播的激情。因此，在周一，虽然沪深两市成交金额重返2万亿 元。但在周二，就迅速萎缩至1.9万亿元，即使在AI主线强势的背景下仍出现如此低迷的资金格局，这从一个侧面说明了短线A股的量能可能还会进 一步收缩，从而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with technology stocks undergoing a correction after a previous surge, while dividend stocks are performing well, indicating a "seesaw" effect in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:29, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index has decreased by 1.1%, while the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index has increased by 0.1% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index consists of 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with over 65% of its composition from the semiconductor industry [1] - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index focuses on stocks with high dividend levels and low volatility, with nearly 50% of its composition from the banking sector [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Zhejiang Securities predicts that by 2026, the equity market will continue to exhibit a structural trend of low volatility dividends intertwined with technology growth [1] - The ongoing industrial policy in China is expected to strengthen, aiming for technological growth, while fluctuations in China-US relations may lead to a temporary shift in market style towards dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) track the respective indices, providing investors with tools to construct a balanced investment strategy to seize opportunities in the structural market [1]

Market Overview - On November 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.27%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 1.04%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.42%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.97% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 3 were Media (+3.13%), Coal (+2.52%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+2.28%), Steel (+1.9%), and Banking (+1.33%). The worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-1.21%), Home Appliances (-0.66%), Conglomerates (-0.39%), Automotive (-0.36%), and Beauty & Personal Care (-0.35%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 3 was 21,329 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.472 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The annual macroeconomic report predicts that in 2026, the equity market will continue to exhibit a structural trend of low volatility dividends intertwined with technological growth. China's industrial policy is expected to strengthen, and the A-share market aims for technological growth [5] - The market outlook indicates a fundamental bull market, with no change in viewpoint. The driving factor is the meeting between China and the U.S. at APEC [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that after the release of favorable policies, the probability of style switching in the market has increased, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors as the main drivers of domestic development [2][5] - The equity market is expected to transition to a stable operation as new catalysts diminish following the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting a potential reduction in growth momentum [2][5] - It is recommended to moderately reduce positions in technology growth sectors and consider switching to broader indices or low-volatility dividend stocks for a more stable investment approach [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the balance between large-cap and small-cap stocks has been maintained, while growth styles have shown a tendency towards growth [7] - The volatility of both large-cap and growth styles has increased, indicating a more dynamic market environment [7][8] - The concentration of trading has slightly decreased, with the proportion of trading volume from the top 100 stocks showing a minor decline [7] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of precious metals and agricultural products has decreased, while other sectors have shown an increase in trend strength [20] - The liquidity of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products has declined, indicating potential challenges in these markets [20] Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility has decreased, reflecting a calming of market expectations regarding tariff increases, although uncertainty remains as both put and call option positions have increased [23] Group 5 - The convertible bond market has shown slight recovery, with stable pure bond premium rates and a steady increase in the premium rates for bonds convertible at 100 yuan [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "low volatility high dividend" investment strategies among investors seeking stability in a turbulent stock market, highlighting a shift from speculative investments to more secure asset allocations [1][2][25]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Investors, particularly those from stable income professions like teachers and doctors, are increasingly favoring low volatility high dividend assets as a means to achieve stable returns [3][12]. - The concept of "low volatility high dividend" is seen as a way for society to indirectly distribute wealth through dividends from quality companies [2][40]. - The investment strategy has gained traction since 2020, reflecting a broader trend of seeking stability in investment choices amid economic uncertainties [20][25]. Group 2: Performance and Strategy - A case study of an investor, referred to as Li Jie, illustrates the effectiveness of this strategy, with her investments yielding approximately 6% returns, outperforming traditional savings options [5][7]. - The low volatility high dividend strategy is characterized by a mix of stocks and bonds, focusing on stable, cash-generating companies [26][29]. - Historical data shows that the low volatility high dividend index has outperformed the broader market in various time frames, demonstrating its resilience during market downturns [42][44]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the low volatility high dividend investment approach is becoming more relevant as traditional high-risk investments lose appeal due to regulatory changes and market conditions [22][24]. - The introduction of policies aimed at enhancing dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises is expected to further support the growth of low volatility high dividend investments [47][49]. - The market is witnessing an increase in the number and scale of low volatility high dividend funds, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards more stable investment options [39][50].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, particularly within the technology growth sector, leading to a rise in defensive demand as trading sentiment declines ahead of the upcoming holiday [1] - Since mid-August, high-dividend assets have gained attractiveness, with the Dividend ETF (510880) becoming a key focus for capital allocation [1] - The Dividend ETF (510880) has seen significant trading volume, with an average daily trading volume of 930 million yuan from September 18 to 19, doubling compared to the average daily trading volume since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The Dividend ETF (510880) has reached a new high in fund size of 19.468 billion yuan, making it one of the few dividend-themed ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - The low-volatility dividend ETF (512890) has also achieved a fund size of 20.348 billion yuan as of September 19 [2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to benefit both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, potentially leading to a structural market rally [2] Group 3 - The Dividend ETF (510880) has a holder count of 421,800, making it the only dividend-themed ETF with over 400,000 holders in the market [3] - The low-volatility dividend ETF (512890) and its linked funds have a combined holder count of 1.1631 million, also making it a significant player in the market [3] Group 4 - The Dividend ETF (510880) has distributed over 4 billion yuan in dividends since its inception, with a total of 42.98 billion yuan in cumulative dividends [4] - The fund has been operational for 18 years and has distributed dividends 18 times [4] Group 5 - Huatai-PB Fund, a pioneer in ETF management, has over 18 years of experience in dividend-themed index investments, managing a total of 42.444 billion yuan across its dividend-themed ETFs [5] - The "Dividend Family" includes multiple ETFs, such as the Dividend ETF (510880) and the low-volatility dividend ETF (512890) [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a contraction in trading volume, with the three major indices slightly declining and total trading volume decreasing by 811.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw minor declines of 0.04% and 0.16%, respectively [2] Policy Signals - The State Council Information Office is set to hold a press conference on September 22, 2025, to discuss the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is highly anticipated by investors for potential policy signals [1][2] Index Adjustments - The FTSE Russell index adjustments effective after the close on September 19 led to notable movements in several large-cap stocks, with stocks like BeiGene and NewEase rising, while others like China Nuclear Power and China Unicom fell [3] - The adjustments included the inclusion of stocks such as BeiGene and NewEase into the FTSE China A50 Index, reflecting international investors' structural optimism towards the Chinese market, particularly in the innovative drug and technology sectors [3] Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to shift the focus from inflation control to stabilizing growth and employment, which historically has led to improved returns in domestic equity markets [4] - Analysts predict that the resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle will enhance global risk appetite and improve liquidity expectations in emerging markets, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] Investment Outlook - Despite a strong performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks since late June, the market has entered a consolidation phase in September, with increased volatility [5] - Structural opportunities in technology growth, low-volatility dividends, and sectors experiencing recovery are highlighted as areas of interest, with expectations of a "policy-driven + profit improvement" support for a potential upward trend in the fourth quarter [5] - AI is anticipated to be a key market theme moving forward, with the overseas computing power industry expected to positively impact the A-share market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with all three major indices falling over 1%, while the ChiNext index saw an intraday fluctuation of nearly 4% [1] Market Performance - The A-share market's trading volume reached 3.17 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 3 trillion yuan in 15 trading days since August 28 [1] External Influences - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts not only boosts global risk appetite but also significantly improves liquidity expectations in emerging markets [1] Investment Opportunities - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are expected to benefit from a dual advantage of improved risk appetite and foreign capital inflow [1] - Structural opportunities are identified in technology growth, low volatility dividends, and sectors experiencing a rebound in prosperity [1] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show a "policy-driven + profit improvement" dual support, leading to a fluctuating upward trend in the market [1]

Group 1 - Major shareholders and executives of several banks, including Suzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Nanjing Bank, have announced plans to increase their holdings in their respective banks, reflecting confidence in the future development prospects of the banks and the Chinese capital market [1][2] - Suzhou Bank's chairman and other executives plan to collectively purchase at least 4.2 million yuan worth of shares from September 8 to December 31, using their own funds [2] - Qingdao Bank's major shareholder plans to acquire between 233 million and 291 million shares, increasing their stake to between 19.00% and 19.99% within six months of the announcement [2] Group 2 - The overall performance of the banking sector has shown improvement, with a year-on-year increase in operating income and net profit of 1.0% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in the banking industry [3] - Non-interest income growth has played a significant role in supporting the improvement of bank performance [3] - Insurance capital has shown a preference for bank stocks, with over 700 stocks in the top ten circulating shareholders list, and six of the top ten heavyweights being bank stocks [4] Group 3 - The investment logic for bank stocks has shifted from a macroeconomic growth cycle to a focus on asset scarcity and stable, sustainable returns [4] - State-owned banks are viewed as core dividend assets due to their high dividends, low valuations, and defensive characteristics, while quality small and medium-sized banks can provide growth and dividend opportunities at certain stages [4]