[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月15日 [翘尾影响犹存 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年9月通胀数据 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：2025年10月15日，统计局发布9月通胀数据。9月，CPI当月同比-0.3%，前值-0.4%； 环比0.1%，前值0.0%。PPI当月同比-2.3%，前值-2.9%；环比0.0%，前值0.0%。 ➢ 核心观点：9月，翘尾因素对CPI和PPI的影响依然较大，不过10月后有望减轻。当月来看， 猪价对CPI的拖累较大，产能调控座谈会后的落实节奏是关键变量，总体来看降幅有望收 窄；非食品方面，年初以来，家用器具、服装、鞋类、旅游、医疗服务价格增速中枢回升。 10月后，PPI翘尾因素的影响逐渐消退，新涨价因素的解 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]