Group 1: CPI Analysis - September CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of -0.4%[5] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline[8] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, impacting CPI by about 0.20 percentage points[8] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - Core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a marginal improvement but still below expectations[9] - The low base effect from last year significantly influenced the core CPI rebound, as it dropped to 0.1% in September 2024[9] - The month-on-month core CPI growth was 0%, weaker than seasonal trends[9] Group 3: PPI Trends - September PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, a smaller decline than the expected -2.4%[14] - The PPI's tailing factor improved from -0.7% to -0.1%, contributing to the reduced decline[14] - Upstream and midstream prices showed signs of improvement, with more downstream industries experiencing price increases[16] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The PPI tailing factor is expected to drop to 0% in October, which may support a rebound in PPI[17] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, unexpected geopolitical changes, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand[22] - International oil prices are currently declining, posing a risk of input cost pressures[20]

Inflation Data Summary - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.4%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, an improvement from the previous -2.9%[3] - The CPI month-on-month increased by 0.1%, compared to 0.0% in the previous month[3] Key Influences on CPI and PPI - Tail effects continue to significantly impact both CPI and PPI, with a notable reduction expected after October[3] - The decline in pork prices has heavily influenced CPI, with pork prices down 17.0% year-on-year, marking the lowest since January 2024[3] - Non-food prices have shown a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in September, up from 0.5% in the previous month[3] Seasonal Trends and Price Movements - September's CPI month-on-month growth of 0.1% is below the five-year average of 0.14%[3] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the five-year average of 0.54%, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%[3] - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 2.4% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since July 2023[3] Future Outlook - The impact of tail effects on CPI and PPI is expected to lessen in the fourth quarter, particularly in November and December[3] - The implementation of capacity control measures in the pork industry is crucial for stabilizing prices moving forward[3] - The introduction of new financial tools worth 500 billion yuan is anticipated to enhance physical workload in the fourth quarter[3] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation and unexpected declines in real estate investment[3]

9月生猪产能供过于求，猪肉价格持续探底。中金宏观认为，在需求增量疲弱下，"反内卷"产能去化需 要遵循养殖周期，短期供强需弱格局未改，9月猪肉批发价环比继续走弱，同比降幅从25.0%稍微走阔 至26.3%。 能源价格方面，民生银行首经团队指出，9月国内成品油价格未调整，因国际市场油价波动幅度未达 《石油价格管理办法》规定的50元/吨阈值。 国家统计局将于10月15日9时30分公布9月物价数据。 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比降幅可能 收窄；翘尾因素拖累减弱，9月全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比降幅有望收窄。 9月CPI降幅或收窄 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月CPI同比降幅可能收窄。 据国家统计局，8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，环比持平。 对9月份CPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所 的预测值分别为-0.3%、0%、-0.2%、-0.1%、-0.2%左右。 对9月份PPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所的 预测值分别为 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Food prices are under dual constraints from weak downstream Producer Price Index (PPI) and overall market demand, leading to a projected year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.4% [1] - Wholesale agricultural product prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month in August, with vegetable prices rising by 8.0% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.9% [2] - The recovery in commodity prices, along with a low base effect, may support a slight rebound in PPI, with significant increases in the prices of steel and coal observed [3] - However, the decline in international oil prices and low capacity utilization in midstream and downstream sectors may limit the extent of PPI recovery [3]

Core Insights - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a positive change, marking the first increase after four consecutive months of decline, with the core CPI reaching a 14-month high [1] - The current low price levels are characterized by structural and transitional features, influenced by various factors [1] Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, while the CPI decreased, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.4% year-on-year, indicating structural characteristics [1] - The low price levels are also related to China's developmental stage and economic transformation, as well as changes in the current internal and external environment, reflecting transitional characteristics [1] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that prices will gradually recover in the second half of the year, supported by several factors [1] - Economic stability and improvement provide a foundation for price support [1] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will continue to show effects [1] - Legal and regulatory measures against disorderly low-price competition will benefit market order and improve the market environment [1] - The holiday economy is expected to have a stimulating effect [1] - Technically, the downward impact of tailing factors on CPI and PPI is expected to weaken [1]