Group 1: CPI Analysis - September CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of -0.4%[5] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline[8] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, impacting CPI by about 0.20 percentage points[8] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - Core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a marginal improvement but still below expectations[9] - The low base effect from last year significantly influenced the core CPI rebound, as it dropped to 0.1% in September 2024[9] - The month-on-month core CPI growth was 0%, weaker than seasonal trends[9] Group 3: PPI Trends - September PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, a smaller decline than the expected -2.4%[14] - The PPI's tailing factor improved from -0.7% to -0.1%, contributing to the reduced decline[14] - Upstream and midstream prices showed signs of improvement, with more downstream industries experiencing price increases[16] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The PPI tailing factor is expected to drop to 0% in October, which may support a rebound in PPI[17] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, unexpected geopolitical changes, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand[22] - International oil prices are currently declining, posing a risk of input cost pressures[20]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月15日 [翘尾影响犹存 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年9月通胀数据 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：2025年10月15日，统计局发布9月通胀数据。9月，CPI当月同比-0.3%，前值-0.4%； 环比0.1%，前值0.0%。PPI当月同比-2.3%，前值-2.9%；环比0.0%，前值0.0%。 ➢ 核心观点：9月，翘尾因素对CPI和PPI的影响依然较大，不过10月后有望减轻。当月来看， 猪价对CPI的拖累较大，产能调控座谈会后的落实节奏是关键变量，总体来看降幅有望收 窄；非食品方面，年初以来，家用器具、服装、鞋类、旅游、医疗服务价格增速中枢回升。 10月后，PPI翘尾因素的影响逐渐消退，新涨价因素的解 ...

9月生猪产能供过于求，猪肉价格持续探底。中金宏观认为，在需求增量疲弱下，"反内卷"产能去化需 要遵循养殖周期，短期供强需弱格局未改，9月猪肉批发价环比继续走弱，同比降幅从25.0%稍微走阔 至26.3%。 能源价格方面，民生银行首经团队指出，9月国内成品油价格未调整，因国际市场油价波动幅度未达 《石油价格管理办法》规定的50元/吨阈值。 国家统计局将于10月15日9时30分公布9月物价数据。 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比降幅可能 收窄；翘尾因素拖累减弱，9月全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比降幅有望收窄。 9月CPI降幅或收窄 机构认为，9月猪肉价格继续走弱，但核心CPI涨幅持续，当月CPI同比降幅可能收窄。 据国家统计局，8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，环比持平。 对9月份CPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所 的预测值分别为-0.3%、0%、-0.2%、-0.1%、-0.2%左右。 对9月份PPI同比增速，中金宏观、民生银行首经团队、兴业研究、华泰证券研究所、华创证券研究所的 预测值分别为 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Food prices are under dual constraints from weak downstream Producer Price Index (PPI) and overall market demand, leading to a projected year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.4% [1] - Wholesale agricultural product prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month in August, with vegetable prices rising by 8.0% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.9% [2] - The recovery in commodity prices, along with a low base effect, may support a slight rebound in PPI, with significant increases in the prices of steel and coal observed [3] - However, the decline in international oil prices and low capacity utilization in midstream and downstream sectors may limit the extent of PPI recovery [3]

国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，6月份居民消费价格(CPI)走势出现了积极变化， 同比在连续四个月为负的情况下，首次转涨。核心CPI也创下14个月新高。这是多种因素作用的结果。 盛来运强调，近期价格的低位运行具有结构性和阶段性的特点。上半年，CPI下降，但如果扣除食品和 能源的价格，核心CPI是同比上涨0.4%。因此具有结构性特点。同时，当前价格低位运行也于我国发展 阶段和经济转型的特点有关，也与现阶段内外环境的变化有关，因此具有阶段性。盛来运判断，下半 年，价格会低位温和回升。支撑因素包括：一是经济稳定向好，为价格奠定了基础；二是扩内需政策还 将持续显效；三是依法依规治理低价无序竞争，有利于市场秩序，改善市场环境；四是假日经济效应也 会发挥带动作用；五是从技术上看，翘尾因素对CPI和PPI的下拉影响会减弱。(人民财讯) ...