Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, with little pressure to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. However, there was still an obvious "uneven" economic situation [1][7]. - Macro policies have started to actively respond to the "cold" parts of the economy. Two policies targeting fixed - asset investment, especially infrastructure investment, are expected to improve the infrastructure investment growth rate in Q4 and support overall investment [1][2][9]. - For the bond market, insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery support the bond market, but the pricing may be limited. In the absence of significant macro - environment and policy surprises, the bond market may continue the "ceiling - and - floor" volatile trend [2][10]. Summaries by Sections 1. September Economic Data: Differentiation between Strong Production and Slow Demand - The macro - economy in September 2025 had characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The production end was significantly stronger than expected, while demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment were weak. External demand remained resilient, but domestic demand slowed down, especially investment [1][7][8]. - Macro policies have responded. New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital, and the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local areas, 10 billion yuan more than last year. These policies are expected to support Q4 investment [1][9]. 2. Industrial Production Shows Strong Performance, Exceeding Market Expectations - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to September was 6.2%. Manufacturing upgrading continued to drive industrial resilience [3][12]. - The service production index in September increased by 5.6% year - on - year, basically flat compared with the previous month [13]. - By industry, the year - on - year growth rates of the automotive and food industries rebounded significantly in September, while those of the ferrous metal processing and electrical machinery industries declined. Emerging product output had high growth rates [15]. 3. Consumption Growth Continues to Slow, Policy Dividends Weaken - In September, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed down again. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.0%, the lowest increase this year. The policy subsidy dividend effect weakened, and the year - on - year growth rates of policy - supported home appliances and furniture declined significantly [4][18][22]. - Service consumption performed better than commodity consumption. The service retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the 4.6% of commodity retail sales [22]. 4. Investment Growth Declines Overall, Continues to Bottom Out - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [26]. - Manufacturing investment had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4%, with weakening growth momentum. Equipment purchase investment was still resilient, but some industries were cautious in capital expenditure due to "anti - involution" policies [28][29]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 1.1%, with a further decline. Traditional infrastructure project construction slowed down, and the construction industry's slow production dragged down the investment growth rate. Fiscal policy weakening and local government debt - repayment pressure also affected funds [29]. - Real - estate investment had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 13.9% and was still bottoming out. The decline in real - estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real - estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". More relaxed real - estate policies may be needed [29][30].

Inflation Data Summary - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.4%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, an improvement from the previous -2.9%[3] - The CPI month-on-month increased by 0.1%, compared to 0.0% in the previous month[3] Key Influences on CPI and PPI - Tail effects continue to significantly impact both CPI and PPI, with a notable reduction expected after October[3] - The decline in pork prices has heavily influenced CPI, with pork prices down 17.0% year-on-year, marking the lowest since January 2024[3] - Non-food prices have shown a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in September, up from 0.5% in the previous month[3] Seasonal Trends and Price Movements - September's CPI month-on-month growth of 0.1% is below the five-year average of 0.14%[3] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the five-year average of 0.54%, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%[3] - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 2.4% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since July 2023[3] Future Outlook - The impact of tail effects on CPI and PPI is expected to lessen in the fourth quarter, particularly in November and December[3] - The implementation of capacity control measures in the pork industry is crucial for stabilizing prices moving forward[3] - The introduction of new financial tools worth 500 billion yuan is anticipated to enhance physical workload in the fourth quarter[3] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation and unexpected declines in real estate investment[3]

Core Insights - Liaocheng City aims to strengthen its manufacturing sector by enhancing the black metal industry chain through industrial chain investment and project implementation [1][2] Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2024, 206 large-scale enterprises in Liaocheng achieved revenue of 69.99 billion yuan and profit of 3.61 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 32.2% respectively [1] - In the first half of 2025, the city's revenue reached 32.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with total profit amounting to 1.045 billion yuan, up 91.7% [1] Group 2: Industrial Development Strategy - Liaocheng is recognized as a national hub for steel pipes and has established four key industrial clusters: high-end steel pipes, special steel plate processing, steel structures and transportation facilities manufacturing, and recycling of scrap steel [1][2] - The city is focusing on attracting high-end projects, including a 500,000-ton continuous hot-dip aluminum-zinc-magnesium plate project and a 310,000-ton hot-dip aluminum-zinc-silicon plate project, among others [2] Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The city is promoting the upgrade of seamless steel pipes for high-end applications in aerospace and automotive lightweighting, creating a full-chain ecosystem from basic materials to deep processing and end applications [3] - Liaocheng is collaborating with local leading enterprises and integrating resources from small and medium-sized enterprises to attract high-end special steel pipe projects [3] Group 4: Brand Development - The city is enhancing its global influence by leveraging regional brands like "Liaocheng Steel Pipe" and "Guanzhou Steel Plate," and developing sub-brands such as "Liaocheng High-end Seamless Pipe" [4] - Liaocheng is participating in international exhibitions and utilizing "Belt and Road" initiatives to connect with domestic downstream industry demands, thereby increasing brand value and market competitiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - Liaocheng City is focusing on becoming a strong manufacturing city by enhancing the black metal industry chain through industrial chain investment and project implementation [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2024, 206 large-scale enterprises in Liaocheng achieved revenue of 69.99 billion yuan and profit of 3.61 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 32.2% respectively [1] - By the first half of 2025, revenue reached 32.065 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and total profit of 1.045 billion yuan, up 91.7% [1] Group 2: Industry Development - Liaocheng is recognized as the "Steel Pipe Capital" and a key city in Shandong's black metal industry, with a focus on four major clusters: high-end steel pipes, special steel plate processing, steel structures and transportation facilities manufacturing, and recycling of scrap steel [1][2] - The city is implementing a strategy of "attracting investment to strengthen the chain, project implementation to enhance the chain, and service improvement to optimize the chain" [2][4] Group 3: Project Initiatives - In 2024, Liaocheng will host the second China Steel Pipe Industry Summit and has introduced 40 projects, including a 500,000-ton continuous hot-dip aluminum-zinc-magnesium plate project and a 310,000-ton hot-dip aluminum-zinc-silicon plate project [2] - Seven key projects, including a 1.2 million-ton low-energy green environmental new high-precision cold-rolled and acid-washed plate project, have achieved an investment progress of 138.1% [2] Group 4: Innovation and Branding - The city is collaborating with universities and research institutions to build innovation platforms, focusing on key technologies such as laser welding steel pipe forming and high corrosion-resistant steel plates [5] - Liaocheng is enhancing its brand presence globally by leveraging regional brands like "Liaocheng Steel Pipe" and "Guanzhou Steel Plate," and participating in international exhibitions to boost market competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Liaocheng is implementing a new set of policies to support the high-quality development of its manufacturing sector, focusing on innovation, enterprise growth, efficiency improvement, digital transformation, public service platforms, and green manufacturing [1][2][3] Group 1: New Policies - The newly introduced "New 20 Policies" integrate and optimize previous measures, focusing on emerging pillar enterprises and champion products, while adding 16 new support policies aimed at future industry development [1][2] - The policies include support for the new energy and new materials manufacturing sectors, aiming to guide industrial development and cultivate new productive forces [2] - The policies also provide support for regional brands and "Liaocheng Quality" products, as well as incentives for industry chain promotion institutions [2] Group 2: Industrial Development - Liaocheng has been advancing its manufacturing strategy, resulting in a significant increase in the manufacturing value added, which is projected to rise from 30.2% of GDP in 2022 to 32.5% in 2024 [3] - The city has seen substantial growth in key industries, with non-ferrous metals and deep processing, as well as agricultural product processing, reaching over 100 billion yuan in scale [3] - Industrial technological transformation investments have maintained a high growth rate of 17.5% annually over the past three years, indicating a strong commitment to modernization [3] Group 3: Enterprise Vitality - The number of high-quality enterprises in Liaocheng has surged to 1,166, nearly ten times the number at the end of 2021, showcasing a vibrant enterprise ecosystem [3] - Liaocheng has been recognized as one of the "Top 100 Advanced Manufacturing Cities in the Country" for three consecutive years, reflecting its successful industrial policies and growth [3]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% and an expectation of 0%[12] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, down from a previous value of -3.3% and an expected -3.2%[12] Group 2: Divergence in Price Trends - The PPI for upstream commodities like coal and steel fell, while CPI for food and platinum rose, leading to a contrasting trend between CPI and PPI[3] - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with significant contributions from steel, cement, and coal prices[3] - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting tariff impacts and low utilization rates in downstream capacities[4] Group 3: Consumer Price Index Insights - Core commodity CPI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies[4] - Prices for entertainment durable goods, household textiles, and household appliances increased by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% respectively[4] - The rental CPI showed weak performance, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average of 0.2%[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Policy measures and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but commodity prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The PPI is anticipated to remain weaker than CPI due to ongoing low capacity utilization rates in downstream industries[5]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Consumption - The central bank's report emphasizes that boosting consumption is a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with signs of gradual recovery in consumption growth [2][3] - The central bank plans to increase low-cost funding support for key consumption sectors and develop guiding documents for financial support to enhance consumer finance services [2][3] - The report indicates that China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower compared to countries like the US and Japan, suggesting significant potential for increasing consumption's contribution to economic growth [2] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The report highlights that China's broad government total assets are equivalent to 166% of GDP, while total liabilities are 75% of GDP, indicating a net asset position of 91% of GDP [5][6] - The sustainability of government debt is supported by substantial state-owned assets and a relatively low level of government liabilities, allowing for continued debt expansion [6][7] - Increased fiscal support has been noted, with local governments issuing nearly 1 trillion yuan in new special bonds in the first quarter, effectively boosting investment and market confidence [8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The central bank discusses the need to promote reasonable price recovery by balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [9] - Current low price levels are influenced by multiple factors, including persistent downward pressure on consumption and significant investment contraction in traditional sectors [9][10] - Experts suggest that price management should shift from preventing "price gouging" to preventing "low-price dumping," emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity in competition [11]