Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Xinjiang's cattle industry aims to enhance the supply chain and meet the growing demand for beef, particularly through the upcoming Guangdong Chaoshan Beef Hotpot Cultural Festival [2][10][62]. Group 1: Industry Collaboration - The partnership between the Guangdong Provincial Cattle Industry Development Promotion Association and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Government aims to connect production and sales resources, facilitating mutual benefits [6][10]. - The collaboration is timely, coinciding with the preparation for the first Guangdong Chaoshan Beef Hotpot Cultural Festival, which serves as a platform for industry interaction [9][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Greater Bay Area is a major consumer market, accounting for nearly 10% of national beef consumption, with an annual consumption of 1 million tons, primarily driven by cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [18][19]. - The region's beef consumption market is characterized by a diverse demand matrix, with the Chaoshan beef hotpot segment growing at an annual rate exceeding 15% [20]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - Guangdong's beef production is projected to be only 45,000 tons in 2024, with a self-sufficiency rate below 6%, leading to a heavy reliance on imports [25]. - The local cattle farming model, which is small-scale and primarily free-range, is insufficient to meet market demand, resulting in increased costs and vulnerability to international market fluctuations [26][27]. Group 4: Xinjiang's Supply Potential - Xinjiang, as one of China's five major pastoral areas, has a cattle population expected to reach 8 million by 2025, with beef production projected at 900,000 tons [32]. - The region's cattle farming network spans over 30 counties and is supported by a production model that combines smallholder breeding with enterprise fattening, providing a solid foundation for large-scale supply [30][34]. Group 5: Branding and Market Access - Xinjiang's geographical distance from major consumer markets limits its market channels and brand premium capabilities, necessitating collaboration with the Greater Bay Area for enhanced market access and brand development [35][36]. - The "media+" approach will facilitate direct connections between Greater Bay Area enterprises and Xinjiang producers, reducing intermediaries and ensuring stable supply [50][49]. Group 6: Cultural Integration and Consumer Engagement - The Guangdong Chaoshan Beef Hotpot, as a cultural emblem, will leverage media to elevate the consumer experience, transforming beef consumption into a cultural and emotional engagement [54][58]. - The collaboration aims to create a new business model that combines dining, culture, and tourism, expanding the consumer market further [74].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is experiencing a mixed performance with significant opportunities in various sub-sectors, particularly in pig farming, cattle, pets, poultry, and planting industries. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with strong profitability and market positioning [3][4][5][6][8][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The decline in pig prices has led to a divergence in profitability among companies, highlighting the need to focus on expected differences in the pig farming sector. The average selling price of pigs in Q3 2025 was between 13-14 CNY/kg, down from 14-15 CNY/kg in H1 2025 [3][15]. - Key companies to watch include leading players like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, with valuations at historical low levels [3][16]. 2. Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is stabilizing, while the beef cattle sector may be entering a super cycle. The average price for beef cattle in Q3 2025 was 25.88 CNY/kg, up 2.34% from the previous quarter [4][17]. - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [4][18]. 3. Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising. Major pet food companies reported revenues of 4.737 billion CNY for Guibao Pet and 3.860 billion CNY for Zhongchong Co., with growth rates of 29% and 21% respectively [5][19]. - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [5][20]. 4. Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure, with a focus on the need for improved breeding practices. The average price for white chicken was reported to be 3.5 CNY/kg, with a slight increase [6][21]. - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price recovery due to seasonal demand, with companies like Lihua and Wens showing improved performance [6][23]. 5. Planting Sector - The seed industry is anticipated to recover, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified corn. Leading companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural technology and innovation in enhancing competitiveness [8][27]. 6. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector has shown revenue and profit growth among leading companies, with Haida Group reporting a revenue increase of 13.24% [8][28]. - The animal health sector is facing challenges due to competition, but there are opportunities for innovation in vaccine development [8][32].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The poultry sector is experiencing a high season for avian influenza, with a focus on the need for overseas breeding imports, particularly for white chickens. The French Ministry of Agriculture has raised the risk level for highly pathogenic avian influenza from "medium" to "high" as of October 22, 2025. The total breeding stock update from January to September 2025 was 906,200 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 21.78% [12][13] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to see supply contraction, with demand being the core variable. As of September 21, 2025, the breeding stock was at 13.7 million sets, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5% [14] - The egg-laying chicken segment is seeing record profits for leading companies, with a significant reduction in domestic breeding imports due to avian influenza, leading to a tightening supply outlook [15] Summary by Sections Poultry Sector - Focus on white chicken fundamentals and changes in breeding imports. The ongoing avian influenza season necessitates attention to overseas breeding imports, particularly from France, which has seen a significant drop in breeding stock updates [12][13] - Yellow chicken supply may contract, with prices sensitive to demand changes. The average price for yellow chickens is expected to improve in the second half of the year compared to the first half [14] - Leading egg-laying companies are achieving historical profit highs, with a focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share and bargaining power [15] Swine Sector - The swine industry continues to face losses, with a slight rebound in pig prices and stabilization in piglet prices. The average price of pigs was 11.95 yuan/kg, up 5.7% from the previous week [16][17] - There is a focus on the potential for capacity reduction in the swine sector, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Group being highlighted for their profitability [17] Cattle Sector - The dairy and beef cattle industries are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a notable 8% decrease in dairy cow stock. The price for beef cattle is expected to see a turning point, with companies that utilize a "dairy-meat linkage" model being particularly well-positioned [18] Pet Sector - The domestic pet brand market is rapidly growing, with a focus on companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. The export of pet food is also on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 7.56% in volume [19][20][21] Seed Industry - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with a focus on biotechnology and genetically modified crops. Leading companies in the seed sector are expected to enhance their competitive edge [22] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market share gains. The animal health sector is also highlighted for its potential to break through homogenized competition with innovative products [23][24]