行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 02 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价触及前低，去产能逻辑强化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价触及前低，去产能逻辑强化。（1）猪价弱势，养殖盈 利恶化。节后市场供应逐步恢复，在猪价跌至前期低点后，市场抵触情绪 升温，散户惜售意愿增强、叠加二次育肥有所进场，猪价有所企稳。2 月 27 日猪价跌至 10.84 元/公斤，周中已触及 2025 年 10 月猪价前低。养殖盈 利快速收窄，2 月 27 日行业自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润分别为-159.65、 20.83 元/头，周环比-61.33、-32.27 元/头。（2）节后屠宰量低位恢复。节 后终端消费整体偏弱，尽管近期屠宰量呈回升趋势，但仍处于年内低位水 平。根据涌益咨询数据，2 月 23-27 日样本企业日度屠宰量从 9.20 万头恢 复至 12.35 万头，底部逐步恢复，但仍明显低于节前水平。（3）节后生猪 均重回升。春节期间生猪市场交投阶段性停滞，猪只被动增重现象较为突 出。2 月 27 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 127.73 公斤（周环比+1.68 公斤）， 其中集团场均重 125.19 ...

2月27日，养殖板块盘中上扬，养殖ETF（159865）涨超1.4%，生猪行业产能持续去化。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业方面，生猪行业产能持续去化。截至2025年12月底，全国能繁母猪存栏较 去年1月下降2.9%。展望上半年，产能有望继续去化，主要因猪价节后或持续低迷、行业亏损扩大，以 及南方雨季疫情风险较高和政策调控压力。白羽肉鸡行业产能升至历史高位水平，商品代供给较为宽 松，鸡价中期或继续震荡。黄羽肉鸡行业产能则处于历史同期较低水平，预计上半年供给总体偏紧，鸡 价或持续在成本线上方震荡上涨。种植产业链方面，受消费旺季及惜售情绪影响，粮价近期震荡上涨。 中期来看，受国际大宗商品涨价传导，国内粮价有望跟随上涨。种业方面，随着中央一号文件推进生物 育种产业化，行业格局有望加速优化。此外，大多数养殖上市公司头均市值仍处于历史底部区间，长期 投资价值凸显。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽饲料、 畜禽养殖、动物疫苗及兽药等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。该指数侧重于配置农业与生物科技领域，兼具周期性与成长性特征。 风 ...

农林牧渔 农业周报 20260208-20260214：猪价快速调整，粮价稳步上涨 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/2/24 25/5/5 25/7/14 25/9/22 25/12/1 26/2/9 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | 推荐公司及评级 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<登海业绩预告点评：降本+转基因 驱动，业绩拐点基本确立>>--2026- 02-11 <<天康业绩预告点评：全产业链韧性 支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张>>-- 2026-02-10 <<农业周报 20260201-20260207：一 号文发布，重视农业投资机会>>-- 2026-02-10 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengx ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2026 年 02 月 24 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：节后淡季来临，猪价或延续跌势。（1）节后猪价下探。春 节多数屠企停工放假，生猪购销基本停滞，随假期步入尾声，养殖企业陆 续恢复出栏，市场购销恢复，猪价开启回落，2 月 23 日猪价回落至 11.26 元/公斤，较 2 月 13 日-0.4 元/公斤。（2）消费淡季来临，节后宰量处于低 位水平。随假期步入尾声，多数屠企已陆续开工，当前宰量处于低位水平， 收购顺畅度高，采购难度不大。2 月 23 日样本企业日屠宰量 9.20 万头，较 节前 2 月 13 日下降 64%。冻品方面，春节前屠企加快消化冻品库存。截至 2 月 12 日当周，行业冻品库存率 17.18%，周环比-4.08pct。（3）生猪均重 季节性下降。节前规模场增量降重，散户与二次育肥出栏积极，集中出栏 带动生猪出栏均重下降。2 月 12 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 126.05 公斤（周 环比-1.35 公斤），其中集团场均重 122.62 公斤（周环比-0.72 公斤）、散 户均重 139.6 ...

年产10万吨玉米蛋白精加工项目进展：公司依托酶解技术平台投资建设的该项目已取得《饲料生产许可 证》，并完成消防、安全等验收手续，预计将巩固在饲料酶解蛋白领域的竞争优势，拓展客户至水产和 家禽领域。 行业政策与环境 政策环境关注：2026年2月3日发布的中央一号文件强调推进生物育种产业化，虽未直接涉及美农生物， 但可能对农业板块整体带来潜在影响。 业绩经营情况 经济观察网美农生物（301156）近期股东减持计划提前终止，年产10万吨玉米蛋白精加工项目已取得 《饲料生产许可证》，公司2025年第三季度业绩实现增长。 近期事件 股东减持计划提前终止：2026年2月9日，公司公告股东上海全裕智合管理咨询事务所(有限合伙)原计划 减持不超过1.0%股份，实际减持140.78万股(占公司总股本0.999967%)后提前终止减持计划。减持价格 区间为19.03元/股至21.32元/股，减持后该股东持股比例从6.38%降至5.38%。 股价与资金表现 资金流向波动：2026年2月10日，股价收于20.02元，较前一交易日下跌0.99%，主力资金净流出464.03 万元，换手率达5.11%。同期，2026年1月26日至27日另 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses China's efforts to reduce dependence on foreign agricultural products to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion population [1][3] - It highlights advancements in agricultural technology and policy initiatives aimed at increasing domestic production [2] Group 1: Agricultural Independence - China aims to decrease reliance on imported soybeans by developing higher-protein corn varieties, targeting a reduction of soybean meal usage in livestock feed to 10% by 2030 [1] - The country has approximately 75% of the arable land of the U.S. but four times the population, necessitating increased productivity per acre [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Significant investments in agricultural R&D have been made, with public sector spending from 2019 to 2021 being about twice that of the U.S. [2] - By 2022, China began to industrialize first-generation biobreeding, resulting in a 10% increase in corn yield [2] - Projections indicate that China's corn imports will drop to 2.65 million tons by 2025, significantly lower than the nearly 30 million tons peak in 2022 and 2023 [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Market Access - The integration of farms with the internet and high-speed rail has improved access for urban consumers, supported by government efforts to reduce rural poverty and enhance social stability [2] - E-commerce platforms are expanding into rural markets, and technology companies are establishing businesses around agricultural drones [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of modernizing agriculture while ensuring stable production as a shield for food security. The 2026 Central Document sets a target for grain production to remain around 1.4 trillion jin, highlighting the need for quality and efficiency improvements in agricultural production [4][6] - The focus on breeding has shifted from research to industrial application, indicating a faster pace in the commercialization of biobreeding technologies [4] - Comprehensive regulation of the livestock industry is emphasized, with a shift from monitoring pig production capacity to a more integrated approach across the entire supply chain [4][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 2936.45, with a 52-week high of 3158.8 and a low of 2448.98 [1] Key Policy Developments - The 2026 Central Document outlines six key areas for agricultural and rural modernization, including enhancing agricultural production capacity, promoting stable income for farmers, and innovating institutional mechanisms [3][4] Investment Recommendations - In the seed industry, the report suggests focusing on companies with strong breeding advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Shennong Seeds due to the anticipated restructuring and increased market concentration [6] - For the livestock sector, it recommends monitoring leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as there is still room for production capacity adjustments [8] - The report highlights the potential benefits for smart agricultural machinery and related industries due to the emphasis on developing new agricultural production capabilities [8]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agriculture industry is "Positive" [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural investment opportunities following the release of the central government's No. 1 document, which highlights the need for comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig farming industry [5][19]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the livestock and planting sectors, particularly focusing on companies with low valuations and strong growth potential [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pig Farming**: The average price for pigs is 12.14 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 CNY from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 29.24 CNY/kg, which increased by 0.62 CNY [5][19]. The industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year [6][20]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for broiler chickens is 14 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.3 CNY increase. However, the industry is facing challenges with profitability, as the average loss per chicken is 0.26 CNY [21][22]. The report suggests that chicken prices may remain volatile in the medium term due to high production levels [21][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][10]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The No. 1 document promotes the industrialization of biotechnology in agriculture, which is expected to enhance the seed supply chain and improve the market environment for genetically modified crops [11][23]. The report gives a positive rating for the seed industry, highlighting the long-term investment value of leading companies [11][23]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends indicate that grain prices are likely to continue rising due to increased demand and reduced supply. The average price for corn is 2394 CNY/ton, and for wheat, it is 2531 CNY/ton, both showing slight increases [12][24]. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting sector, particularly in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development [12][24].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of live pigs is increasing, leading to a rebound in prices followed by a decline. As of February 8, the price of live pigs was 11.84 CNY/kg, down 0.47 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were -38.09 CNY and 91.42 CNY per head, respectively, showing significant week-on-week declines [2][10][30]. - The beef market is experiencing price increases due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg and calves at 33.81 CNY/kg, reflecting a positive trend for beef prices in the long term [3][33]. - The poultry sector is facing downward pressure on prices due to increased output of broilers and a decrease in demand for poultry products, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 0.21 CNY/kg week-on-week [3][40]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The price of live pigs has shown volatility, with a rebound followed by a decline due to increased supply and faster slaughtering rates. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.40 kg, down 0.46 kg week-on-week [2][20][30]. - The industry is entering a seasonal consumption peak, with an increase in slaughtering volume and a decrease in frozen product inventory, which is currently at 17.91%, down 0.40 percentage points week-on-week [2][13][30]. Beef Industry - The beef market is seeing an upward trend in prices, driven by increased demand from slaughterhouses as they prepare for the Spring Festival. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to tightening supply from reduced breeding stock [3][33][34]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in prices due to increased output and reduced demand for poultry products. The price of eggs has also decreased to 7.67 CNY/kg, down 0.78 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery driven by supply constraints [3][40][42]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance agricultural productivity and quality. This initiative is likely to benefit leading seed companies [3][55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The "Opinions" issued by the Central Committee and the State Council emphasize the importance of stabilizing grain and oil production, promoting agricultural modernization, and implementing regular precise assistance to ensure rural revitalization and farmers' income growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production Capacity and Quality - The "Opinions" aim to stabilize grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin, emphasizing the integration of production capacity, ecological sustainability, and income growth [2]. - The focus is on optimizing agricultural production structure and enhancing grain quality, with projects to improve grain circulation efficiency [2]. - The agricultural development strategy includes increasing the area of high-standard farmland to 75.68 million mu by 2025 and achieving a mechanization rate of 76.7% for crop farming [5][6]. Group 2: Regular Precise Assistance - By the end of 2025, over 7 million monitoring objects will be identified for assistance, with a focus on preventing poverty and promoting stable employment for over 32 million former poverty-stricken laborers [3][4]. - The transition to regular precise assistance marks a shift from temporary measures to a sustainable system that integrates financial and resource policies into rural revitalization [3][4]. Group 3: Farmers' Income Growth - The "Opinions" highlight the goal of increasing farmers' disposable income to 24,456 yuan by 2025, reflecting a 6% real growth compared to the previous year [7]. - Measures to promote income growth include enhancing the quality and efficiency of rural industries and supporting employment stability for migrant workers [8]. - The strategy includes expanding rural consumption through new business models and improving service levels, which is expected to stimulate significant consumer spending [8].