| 亿航智能系列 车中旭霞 | | --- | | 行业深度 | | 《eVTOL行业专题：低空经济的先导产业，飞行汽车商业化渐近》——20240516 | | 行业点评 | | 《 低空经济点评：亿航智能运营合格证落地，低空经济从试点迈向商业化运营阶段 》——20250331 | | 公司深度 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）-低空经济领先企业，集齐适航三证，商业化落地有望加速》 ——2024-08-11 | | 公司点评 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）- 发布长航程航空器VT35，EH216-S商业运营可期 》 ——20251207 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）-单二季度收入同比增长44%，eVTOL在手订单充沛》 ——20250916 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）- 运营合格证落地，低空经济迈向商业化运营阶段 》 ——20250608 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）-单四季度收入同比增长190%，商业化落地运营可期》——20250324 | | 《亿航智能（EH.O）-单三季度收入同比增长348%，在手订单充裕》——20241123 | 核心观点 行业竞争加剧的风险；关键技术推进不及预期的风险。 发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH.O) [5][55] Core Insights - EHang has launched the VT35, a long-range unmanned aerial vehicle, expanding its product range to include intercity air travel [2][26] - The company has received operational licenses and is prepared to commence commercial operations, having completed over 1,700 flights since obtaining the license [2][37] - EHang's global footprint has expanded to 21 countries, with plans for large-scale commercial operations in Thailand by 2026 [2][40][43] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, EHang reported revenues of 92 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.2% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was -82.16 million RMB, compared to -48.06 million RMB in the same period last year [1][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 60.8%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points [1][17] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for EHang from 2025 to 2027 are 500 million RMB, 750 million RMB, and 1.36 billion RMB, respectively [3][55] - Expected net profits for the same period are -300 million RMB, -200 million RMB, and a slight profit of 1 million RMB in 2027 [3][55] Product Development and Partnerships - The VT35 model, designed for a range of 200 kilometers, is set to enhance EHang's offerings in urban and intercity air transport [2][26] - Strategic partnerships have been established with Minth Group for high-safety aircraft systems and with Guoxuan High-Tech for battery solutions [47][48] - EHang has also formed a joint research institute with Tsinghua University to advance low-altitude aviation technology [51] Operational Readiness - EHang's subsidiaries have completed over 80,000 safe flights, indicating readiness for commercial operations [37][40] - The company is developing a ticketing system for future public use and has initiated training programs for ground operation personnel [38][37] Market Expansion - EHang's eVTOL aircraft have successfully conducted test flights in various countries, including Thailand, Qatar, and Japan, showcasing its international operational capabilities [43][44][45]

Core Insights - The first full-size tilt-duct eVTOL, Tianling Technology's L600, has been unveiled, marking a significant milestone in China's eVTOL sector as the first company to adopt a full duct design [1] - Tianling Technology's unique choice of technology direction five years ago has now become a core competitive barrier as the market shifts focus from mere functionality to usability, emphasizing noise, efficiency, and safety [1][2] - The company aims to replace existing general aviation aircraft with high-performance, low-cost eVTOLs, while also planning for large-scale urban air mobility in the long term [16] Company Development - Tianling Technology was founded in 2023, with its core team starting eVTOL development in 2020, focusing on high-performance aircraft to compete with traditional aviation [5] - The company has designed five configurations, iterating through various prototypes to arrive at the current design, which balances short-term and long-term market needs [1][5] - The L600 features a six-seat design, with a focus on dual seating in the front for training and operational efficiency [9] Technological Advancements - The L600 is equipped with a range-extended hybrid power system, leveraging the advantages of both electric and fuel power for different flight phases [8] - The design incorporates distributed propulsion systems, optimizing thrust and lift characteristics by integrating the wing and power systems [4] - The company anticipates that advancements in battery technology will allow for increased capacity and efficiency, potentially expanding the seating capacity of the L600 in the future [10][11] Market Positioning - Tianling Technology aims to capture a significant share of the general aviation market, with plans to scale from 1,000 to 10,000 eVTOLs, thereby accumulating extensive flight experience to demonstrate safety and reliability [16] - The projected operational cost for the L600 is estimated at 1.5 yuan per seat per kilometer, positioning it competitively within the hybrid eVTOL market [17][18] - The company is targeting various applications, including emergency rescue, business travel, and short-distance transportation, with intentions to expand into urban air mobility [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the downfall of Supernal, a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Company focused on eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) technology, highlighting the challenges faced by the company and the broader implications for the eVTOL industry [3][4][10]. Group 1: Company Background and Ambitions - Supernal was established under the leadership of CEO Shin Jai-won, a former NASA executive, with significant investments from Hyundai, totaling approximately $1.45 billion [5][9]. - The company aimed to create a comprehensive urban air mobility ecosystem, including the design and sale of eVTOL aircraft, and planned to open around 200 vertical takeoff and landing airports in major cities worldwide [6][8]. Group 2: Challenges and Setbacks - Supernal faced significant challenges, including the closure of its Washington headquarters and a 10% workforce reduction, leading to a near-total turnover in its management team [11][12]. - The company attributed its suspension of operations to the early-stage development of the eVTOL industry, citing external challenges such as regulatory frameworks and infrastructure development [11][13]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The struggles of Supernal reflect a broader trend in the eVTOL sector, with other companies like Lilium and Volocopter also facing financial difficulties and bankruptcy [15][16]. - Investment in the eVTOL industry has cooled significantly, with only 15 disclosed financing events in the first half of the year, and the largest being $250 million for XPeng Heitech [16][17]. - The article emphasizes the need for caution and a long-term perspective in the eVTOL industry, as it remains in the early stages of development and faces numerous technical and regulatory hurdles [16][17].

Core Insights - The first International Low Altitude Economy Expo held in Shanghai showcased nearly 300 leading companies and over 19 global product launches, reflecting the robust development of the low altitude economy [1] - Wang Yiming from the China Internet Information Low Altitude Economy Research Institute emphasized that the low altitude economy, as a strategic emerging industry, will create a virtuous cycle through the collaboration with traditional manufacturing [1][3] Industry Trends - The hardware manufacturing in the low altitude economy is evolving from "toy-level" to "tool-level" and then to "transportation-level," driven by the logic of defining products by scenarios, reconstructing supply chains, and creating new business models [3] - The collaboration between low altitude economy and traditional manufacturing represents an upgrade of the industrial system, transitioning from ground manufacturing to "integrated air-ground-space manufacturing" [4] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in the drone manufacturing sector have established a differentiated competitive landscape across consumer, industrial, and eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) segments [5] - DJI dominates the consumer drone market with over 70% global market share, while companies like XAG and EHang are leading in agricultural and eVTOL sectors respectively [5][6] Technological Advancements - The low altitude economy is experiencing a shift from single product innovation to competition across the entire industrial chain, with leading companies building "moats" through vertical integration and technology reuse [6] - The development of power systems for eVTOLs is critical, with solid-state batteries being viewed as the optimal solution due to their high energy density and safety [7][8] Ecosystem Development - The low altitude economy is forming a "low altitude + multiple industries" ecosystem, with clear trends in consumer drones transitioning to tool usage, industrial drones upgrading with AI, and eVTOLs accelerating certification processes [9] - The government is encouraged to support policy and standardization, while enterprises should lead industry collaboration and ecosystem building [10] Market Opportunities - The integration of low altitude economy with traditional industries presents significant potential for transformation and upgrading, with applications ranging from logistics to emergency rescue [13][14] - The establishment of a market-oriented pricing mechanism is suggested to attract social capital for infrastructure development, promoting the prosperity of the low altitude economy [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The low-altitude economy is experiencing significant support from both central and local government policies, with a focus on funding and scene development to accelerate commercialization [3][19] - The recent issuance of 200 billion yuan in special bonds for equipment updates is expected to benefit low-altitude equipment, including consumer drones and eVTOLs [24] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from conceptualization to commercialization, with various companies showcasing eVTOL products at the Shanghai Auto Show [19][31] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Sector Review - The average change in A-share related to the low-altitude economy from April 21 to April 25 was +3.6%, driven by improved risk appetite due to easing tariff expectations [4][11] - Top gainers included Xincheng Technology (+37.2%), Wanfu Ovi (+14.7%), and Guangyang Co. (+13.1%) [11][13] 2. Industry Dynamics - Meituan's self-developed drone received the first nationwide low-altitude logistics operation certificate [22] - The establishment of the Guangzhou Low-altitude Economy Development Company with a registered capital of 300 million yuan aims to support the industry [25] - The first low-altitude economic fund in Sichuan province has been registered, focusing on eVTOL manufacturing [34] 3. Individual Company Updates - Xincheng Technology is developing a low-altitude comprehensive management service platform [36] - Xinnengda has partnered with Aerospace Feipeng to enhance drone performance with high-performance batteries [37] - Jinfeng Co. is collaborating with Tsinghua University to develop a ducted fan propulsion system for flying cars and industrial drones [38] - Yinheng has delivered a prototype electric propulsion system for EHang's new model [41] - Jifeng Technology's controlling shareholder has changed to the actual controller of Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., which specializes in drone development [43]