Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].

县域是城乡融合发展的关键纽带。作为连接城市与乡村的桥梁，县域在促进城乡要素双向流动中发挥着 不可替代的作用。四川蒲江将生态"高颜值"转化为经济"高价值"；山东曹县通过电商产业吸引大批人才 返乡创业……以县域经济为依托，整合与优化城乡资源配置，促进产业迭代升级，全面提升城乡公共服 务水平，将为乡村全面振兴、城乡融合发展营造有利环境。 面向"十五五"，县域发展迎来新的历史机遇。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议提 出"发展各具特色的县域经济"，为县域经济高质量发展指明方向。以人为本、多元协同、因地制宜、在 发展中创新，蓬勃发展的县域经济描绘中国之治壮丽画卷的浓墨重彩，更成为中国式现代化的重要支撑 和活力之源。 数据显示，截至2024年，全国县域经济总量已达54万亿元，占全国国内生产总值比重近40%，62个"千 亿县"如繁星般照亮中国经济的广阔腹地，展现出蓬勃生机。 县域经济是中国经济的"微观基础"。它为中国超一半人口就业和生活品质提升提供基础和保障，同时承 担着扩大内需、畅通循环等重要宏观经济职能，是推动中国经济高质量发展的重要引擎。昆山市、江阴 市、张家港市、晋江市、慈溪市、长沙县、义乌市7个"超强 ...

Core Insights - The Henan state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a decline of 0.25% on October 30, with Zhengzhou Coal Power leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the Henan state-owned enterprise reform sector included: - Moketech (300290) with a closing price of 24.41, up 7.39% and a trading volume of 523,700 shares, totaling 1.264 billion yuan [1] - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 8.79, up 3.05% with a trading volume of 1,449,000 shares, totaling 1.260 billion yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Zhengzhou Coal Power (600121) which closed at 5.41, down 7.20% with a trading volume of 1,579,000 shares, totaling 876 million yuan [2] - Zhongyuan Media (000719) closed at 11.99, down 5.22% with a trading volume of 204,500 shares, totaling 250 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The Henan state-owned enterprise reform sector saw a net inflow of 104 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.14 billion yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Shenhuo Co. (000933) with a net inflow of 238 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 235 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Moketech (300290) had a net inflow of 136 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 110 million yuan [3]