来源：金融界 责任编辑：韦子蓉 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：韦子蓉 来源：金融界 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

在即将到来的2026年，一二级市场将呈现怎样的格局？PE/VC能否借IPO回暖、并购升温而迎来"退出盛 宴"？A股在2025年的慢牛行情又是否将继续演绎？年尾，以上问题成为市场的重要关切。 "本轮市场行情上涨了一年多，由于上市公司业绩大幅提升，目前大盘整体市盈率不算太高，（市场） 仍然有一定的上涨空间。"中央财经大学金融学院教授贺强表示。 在12月26日举办的启航·2025金融年会上，贺强提到，市场若要实现进一步上涨，上市公司市值要继续 增加，公司业绩要提供支撑。同时，中长期资金要持续入市。这是股市走出长牛、慢牛的两大关键因 素。 对于一级市场，清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩表示，创投市场的发展环境应更加包容，国资LP要 持续优化考核机制、评价体系，例如拉长项目考核周期，对其进行"打包"评估等。 股市长牛需要两大关键因素 贺强提到，"十五五"规划建议中提及资本市场发展，为市场带来了良好的政策预期。在此背景下，他认 为，股市要走出长牛行情，有两大关键条件：一是上市公司业绩持续增长，二是源源不断的中长期资金 入市。 在他看来，"十五五"期间，上市公司规范发展是关键。"可以说上市公司良性发展、业绩不断提升， 是'十 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between A-shares and economic fundamentals since the "924" event last year raises questions about the future drivers of A-share growth [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Historical experience from developed countries indicates that during economic transformation and a downward shift in growth rates, stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels can sustain a long-term bull market [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - A long-term bull market in the stock market requires the combined effects of asset-side and funding-side factors [1] - Asset-side factors include growth potential, high-quality overseas expansion, and improvements in corporate governance [1] - Funding-side factors involve sustained domestic and foreign capital inflows driven by improvements in asset-side factors [1] Group 3: Globalization Impact - Globalization simultaneously strengthens both asset-side and funding-side positive factors [1]

Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the favorable factors for the Chinese stock market from both the asset and funding sides, emphasizing the importance of stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels during economic transformation and upgrading [3][4]. - Historical experiences from developed countries indicate that a stable profit growth rate and rising valuation levels can sustain a long-term bull market, even when economic growth rates decline [6][10]. Group 2: Transformation and Growth - Since the "924" event last year, the A-share market has diverged from the economic fundamentals, with A-shares rising over 50% while domestic demand remains under pressure [6]. - The current financial cycle's downward trend is expected to enhance overall efficiency in the Chinese economy, transitioning from a focus on real estate to innovation and technology [18][21]. Group 3: High-Quality Global Expansion - China is actively expanding through trade and investment, with high-tech and high-growth companies increasingly exposed to overseas markets, leading to better revenue growth and profitability compared to traditional sectors [28][30]. - The share of overseas revenue for specialized and innovative companies is projected to rise significantly, indicating a shift towards global market engagement [32][33]. Group 4: Corporate Governance Improvement - Recent policies aimed at improving corporate governance are expected to enhance transparency and shareholder returns, transitioning the capital market towards a balance between financing and investment [45]. - The contribution of dividends to total returns in the A-share market has been relatively low, but recent reforms are likely to improve this situation, with dividend rates increasing from 35% in 2020 to nearly 45% [49][51]. Group 5: Long-Term Capital Inflows - Stable inflows of long-term capital, particularly from insurance and pension funds, are anticipated to support a structural bull market in A-shares [56][59]. - Global capital rebalancing is expected to attract more foreign investment into the Chinese market, which has been undervalued in recent years [60][62].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating potential for a long-term bull market driven by structural factors in both the asset and funding sides [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market in the Chinese stock market requires a combination of asset-side and funding-side factors, with globalization enhancing both aspects [3][18]. - It highlights that despite a decline in economic growth rates, stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels can sustain a bull market, drawing parallels with historical experiences from developed countries [15][22]. - The report identifies key drivers for the A-share market's upward momentum, including growth potential, high-quality overseas expansion, and improvements in corporate governance [4][5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The report discusses the transition towards a more efficient economy, driven by innovation and research, as the financial cycle shifts downwards [4][24]. - It notes that China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 2.6%, aligning with developed countries, and highlights the increasing complexity of the economy [25][30]. High-Quality Overseas Expansion - The report states that China is actively expanding through trade and investment, with high-tech and high-growth companies increasingly exposed to international markets [5][33]. - It mentions that the share of overseas revenue for specialized and innovative companies has risen significantly, indicating a shift towards global markets [35][39]. Corporate Governance Improvements - The report outlines various policies aimed at enhancing corporate governance, increasing transparency, and encouraging dividend payouts, which are expected to improve overall market returns [6][43]. - It highlights that the contribution of dividends to total returns in the A-share market has been low but is improving due to recent reforms [48][49]. Global Long-Term Funding - The report emphasizes the importance of stable long-term funding, particularly from insurance and pension funds, in supporting the bull market [7][57]. - It notes that global capital rebalancing may lead to increased foreign investment in the Chinese market, enhancing liquidity and valuation [61][63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of a significant outflow of deposits from banks in July 2025, termed as the "deposit migration," which has historical precedents and implications for wealth distribution and investment behavior in China [4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context of Deposit Migration - The first deposit migration occurred between 1999 and 2000, with a total outflow of 240 billion yuan, coinciding with the transition to the commodity housing market and a surge in stock market investments [6][7][9]. - The second migration took place from 2006 to 2007, with a cumulative outflow of 1.5 trillion yuan, driven by stock market reforms that led to a rapid increase in stock prices [10]. - The third migration in 2009 saw a smaller outflow of 350 billion yuan, influenced by government stimulus measures that boosted the stock market [12]. - The current migration in 2025 is characterized by a record outflow of 1.11 trillion yuan in July alone, indicating a significant shift in investment behavior [15]. Group 2: Current Migration Dynamics - In July 2025, both individual and corporate deposits saw substantial declines, with individual deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and corporate deposits by 1.46 trillion yuan [15]. - The surge in non-bank financial institution deposits, which increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, suggests that funds are being redirected towards stock and fund investments [18][20]. - The stock market's rise from approximately 3,200 points to over 3,800 points has attracted significant capital inflows, as deposit interest rates have fallen below inflation rates, making bank deposits less appealing [21][20]. Group 3: Implications for Investment and Wealth Distribution - The article highlights that the current deposit migration is likely to lead to a substantial influx of capital into the stock market, as traditional investment avenues like real estate are no longer viable [29]. - Historical patterns indicate that each deposit migration has been accompanied by wealth creation opportunities, with the current migration expected to be the largest due to the scale of deposits reaching around 160 trillion yuan [29]. - The article posits that a thriving stock market could create a positive feedback loop, enhancing consumer confidence and providing sustainable returns for pension funds, thereby supporting the internationalization of the yuan [31][32].