Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month and below the expected 5.8%[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline from 4.8% in June and below the forecast of 4.9%[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.8%[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, up from 5.0% in June[4] Industrial and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector's investment saw a significant decline, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of -0.3% in July, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous value[23] - Infrastructure investment also turned negative, with a monthly year-on-year decline of -5.1% in July, significantly lower than the previous month's performance[27] - The real estate development investment fell sharply, with a monthly year-on-year decrease exceeding four percentage points compared to the previous month[31] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The service retail sector showed resilience, with strong growth in categories like home appliances and cultural products, despite overall retail sales weakening[18] - The consumer confidence and spending power remain low, necessitating further policy measures to stimulate consumption[14] - Seasonal factors contributed to a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with the influx of new graduates into the job market exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch[33]

Economic Performance - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.9% and down from 6.1% in the previous month[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.0% and up from 5.1% in April[5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May rose by 3.7%, below the expected 3.9% and down from 4.0% in the previous month[5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, down from 5.1% in the previous month[5] Industrial Production - The decline in industrial production growth is attributed to external factors, with a notable drop in export delivery values, which fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%[9] - Domestic demand has provided support to industrial production, with the equipment manufacturing sector's added value growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production[13] Consumer Spending - The growth in retail sales was driven by several factors, including ongoing consumption promotion policies and the early start of e-commerce sales events[19] - Key categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw retail sales increase by 53% and 33% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to total retail sales growth[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 7.8% year-on-year in May, despite a decline from the previous month[25] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 5.6% from January to May, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[29] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate has shown a marginal improvement, remaining at 5.0% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable employment situation[37] - However, structural pressures in the labor market persist, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers rising to 5.0%[37]

Domestic Observations - On June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call focusing on trade issues, signaling a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations[2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was recorded at 49.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.5[6] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 95,364 units, indicating a seasonal high[32] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, but decreased by 0.8% month-on-month[26] Production and Demand Metrics - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.74%, down 0.64% from the previous week[9] - The wholesale price of pork as of June 6, 2025, was 20.46 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 yuan[38] - The total area of commercial housing transactions in 30 major cities for the week ending June 8 was 1.2475 million square meters, significantly below seasonal expectations[32] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was 48.5, below expectations, while the services PMI was 49.9, indicating economic contraction[48] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for May 2025 was reported at 1.9%, with the European Central Bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points[48] - The U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May 2025, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month[58]