2026 年 02 月 26 日 王睿哲 C0062@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 153 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 医药生物 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/2/25) | | 127.45 | | 上证指数(2026/2/25) | | 4147.23 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 164.36/116.93 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 824.16 | | A 股数(百万) | | 824.16 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1050.39 | | 主要股东 | | 联影医疗技术集 | | | | 团有限公司 | | | | (20.33%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 26.20 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 4.87 | | 一个月 | | 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -3.4 | -3.4 -8.5 | | 近期评等 | | | | 日期 | 收盘价 | 评级 | | 2025-10-30 | 146.56 | 买进 | 产品组合 | 销售医学影像诊断设备 | 87.8% | | --- | --- ...

Fixed Income Research - The "multiple price bidding" in both reverse repos and MLF only affects the transparency and signal effect of tool interest rates, not the central bank's ability to dynamically adjust the pricing of liquidity tools [2][4][40] Biopharmaceutical Research - The medical device procurement level is expected to be driven by the long-term implementation of equipment update policies, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from this policy, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [8][9] - In January 2026, the procurement scale for new medical devices showed a decline, with MRI down 22.6%, CT down 25.6%, and surgical robots down 20.1% [8][9] Industry Insights - The equipment update policy aims for a 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, enhancing high-end equipment configuration to match middle-income countries [9] - The release of the "Guidelines for the Establishment of Medical Service Price Projects" for surgical robots is expected to accelerate their penetration and promote the commercialization of innovative medical equipment [10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The recent decline in the minimum bid rate for 3-month reverse repos to 1.4% is led by major banks, which may influence the OMO interest rate in the future [2] - The adjustment in bidding methods for liquidity tools since mid-2024 has diminished the policy rate's influence, with the central bank retaining control over pricing [3] - The likelihood of an OMO rate cut in the first quarter remains low, as the current conditions do not provide sufficient motivation for the central bank to lower rates ahead of schedule [4] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The narrowing spread between 1-year government bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs) since early 2026 indicates a unique pricing situation in the short end of the bond market [5] - The decline in 1-year government bonds has been more pronounced than that of government development bonds, influenced by the central bank's actions [6] Group 3: Medical Equipment Market - The medical equipment procurement scale has seen a significant decline, with MRI and CT equipment down by 22.6% and 25.6% respectively in January 2026 [9] - The implementation of a national pricing guideline for surgical robots is expected to enhance their adoption and application in clinical settings, marking a critical step in the commercialization of innovative medical equipment [10]

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the need to innovate and improve policies to promote effective investment, utilizing various financial tools such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, and local government special bonds [1] - A series of policy measures aimed at promoting effective investment have been implemented, which are expected to stabilize investment and enhance its role in expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and benefiting people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - In 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, indicating downward pressure on fixed asset investment due to local government debt and economic transition factors [2] - Investment in key sectors showed faster growth, with industrial investment increasing by 2.6%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] Group 3 - In infrastructure investment, pipeline transportation investment grew by 36.0%, internet and related services investment increased by 23.8%, and multimodal transport and agency services investment rose by 22.9% in 2025 [3] - Private investment in infrastructure grew by 1.7%, accounting for 21.0% of total infrastructure investment, with significant growth in water management and road transport sectors [3] Group 4 - Equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 11.8% in 2025, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a focus on supporting over 8,400 equipment renewal projects through ultra-long-term special bonds [4] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds for 2026 has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects across various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies to support equipment renewal by lowering investment thresholds and enhancing project review standards [5] - The NDRC aims to strengthen the management of equipment renewal projects and improve the efficiency of fund utilization through better coordination and monitoring [5] Group 6 - The NDRC highlighted the importance of effective government investment to avoid inefficient and redundant construction, focusing on improving project quality and maturity for central budget investments and special bonds [7] - The recent fiscal and financial policies aim to stimulate private investment, with measures including credit support, interest subsidies, and guarantees to lower financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the medical device industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The medical device procurement scale is experiencing a partial decline due to high base effects, but there are opportunities in the surgical robot market [2]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing implementation of equipment upgrade policies is expected to drive long-term procurement levels in the medical device sector, recommending companies that are likely to benefit from these policies [4]. - The report highlights that the four ministries jointly issued a notice in 2024 aiming for a more than 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, which is expected to enhance the configuration of high-end equipment to levels comparable to middle-income countries [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating and recommends companies likely to benefit from the equipment upgrade policies, including Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Kaili Medical, Aohua Endoscopy, and Jingfeng Medical-B. It also suggests paying attention to MicroPort Scientific-B [6]. Monthly Procurement Data - In January 2026, the procurement scale for new devices showed a year-on-year decline: MR down 22.6%, CT down 25.6%, DR down 18.2%, ultrasound down 10.1%, while endoscopy grew by 1.1%, and surgical robots declined by 20.1%. Company-specific performance showed United Imaging MR down 36.5%, United Imaging CT up 8.5%, Mindray ultrasound up 10.9%, Kaili ultrasound down 14.8%, Kaili endoscopy up 55.4%, and Aohua endoscopy down 11.7% [6]. Policy Impact - The report discusses the release of a guideline by the National Healthcare Security Administration on January 20, 2026, which establishes a unified pricing project for surgical robots, expected to accelerate the penetration and application of robotic surgery technology [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant increase in investment support for equipment updates in 2026, with the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds allocated to enhance economic stability and investment policies [1] - In 2025, investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, accounting for nearly 20% of total fixed asset investment, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing investment fundamentals [1] - The current investment cycle in China is in its fourth round, with strong demand for equipment updates driven by systemic generational gaps in manufacturing, healthcare, and education sectors, with an estimated annual equipment update demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan in key areas like agriculture [1] Group 2 - The first batch of funds will support approximately 4,500 projects, leading to a total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan, covering key sectors such as industry, energy, education, and healthcare, while also extending policy benefits to areas like residential elevator upgrades [1] - The optimized equipment update policy will work in conjunction with recently introduced fiscal and financial collaborative policies to address various barriers to corporate investment, including alleviating concerns about investment risks and high financing costs [1] - In addition to supporting equipment updates, there has been a notable increase in major project construction efforts, with about 295 billion yuan allocated for early 2026 "two重" construction projects and central budget investments, indicating a robust start to the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The medical equipment bidding scale continues to show good growth, driven by the implementation of equipment renewal policies, which is expected to stimulate long-term procurement levels in the medical equipment sector [1][4]. Group 1: Equipment Renewal Policy Impact - The equipment renewal policy is set to be implemented as planned in 2025, with a rapid year-on-year growth in the annual bidding scale for medical equipment. For instance, in December 2025, the bidding scale for MR decreased by 11.8%, while CT and DR saw declines of 7.3% and 3.9%, respectively. However, the overall annual cumulative growth for 2025 shows significant increases: MR grew by 31.4%, CT by 53.2%, DR by 53.2%, ultrasound by 42.3%, endoscopes by 16.3%, and surgical robots by 21.9% [3][4]. - The four ministries jointly issued a notice in 2024, aiming for a more than 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, enhancing high-end equipment configurations to levels seen in middle-income countries [4]. Group 2: Market Recovery and Company Performance - The domestic market is showing signs of effective recovery due to policy implementation, with medical equipment companies expected to experience a performance turnaround. For example, in the first three quarters of 2025, United Imaging's domestic revenue reached 6.866 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, indicating a recovery and structural upgrade trend in the medical equipment industry [4]. - The demand for innovative diagnostic and treatment equipment, particularly in imaging and radiotherapy, is rapidly increasing as a result of the ongoing equipment renewal policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is optimizing the implementation of the "Two New" policy to enhance domestic demand, employment, and improve people's livelihoods, focusing on equipment updates and support for green, low-carbon, and smart products [1] Group 1: Optimization of Support Scope - The support scope for equipment updates will be expanded to include new subsidies for old residential elevators, equipment updates for elderly care institutions, and updates for fire rescue and inspection equipment [2] - The policy will also enhance support for offline commercial facilities such as shopping centers and large supermarkets, and will focus on key consumer goods with strong demand and impact [2] - The program will continue to implement subsidies for scrapping and replacing cars, as well as for replacing old household appliances, specifically targeting six categories of products [2] Group 2: Optimization of Subsidy Standards - The subsidy for updating old residential elevators will shift from a fixed amount to a tiered system based on the number of floors [3] - In the scrapping and replacing of old operational trucks, priority will be given to electric trucks [3] - The subsidy for household appliances will be adjusted to support energy-efficient products, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [3] Group 3: Optimization of Implementation Mechanisms - The project application mechanism and review process will be optimized to lower the investment threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The funding distribution method will be improved, and strict measures will be taken against fraudulent claims and illegal practices [3] - A unified subsidy standard will be established nationwide for various categories, including car scrapping and replacing, and household appliances [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is optimizing the "Two New" policy for 2026, focusing on enhancing domestic demand, employment, and living standards through improved investment strategies in both physical and human resources [1] Group 1: Support Range Optimization - The support range for equipment updates will expand to include new subsidies for old residential elevators, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and safety equipment such as firefighting and inspection devices [2] - The policy will also enhance support for consumer infrastructure updates, specifically targeting offline commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2] - The "trade-in" program for consumer goods will concentrate resources on key products with strong market impact, continuing subsidies for vehicle scrappage and appliance replacement, while expanding digital product subsidies to include smart devices [2] Group 2: Subsidy Standard Optimization - The subsidy for updating old residential elevators will shift from a fixed amount to a tiered system based on the number of floors serviced [3] - In the scrappage program for old commercial trucks, priority will be given to electric vehicle replacements, while the subsidy for cars will be adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price [3] - The appliance replacement subsidy will focus on energy-efficient products, providing 15% of the product price with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [3] Group 3: Implementation Mechanism Optimization - The project application and review processes will be streamlined to lower the investment threshold for small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby broadening the policy's reach [3] - The funding distribution method will be improved to prevent fraudulent claims and ensure compliance with national standards for vehicle and appliance subsidies [3] - A unified subsidy standard will be established nationwide for vehicle scrappage, replacement, and appliance trade-in programs [3]

Group 1 - The "Two New" policy has effectively expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [1] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales in home appliances and communication products, leading to accelerated growth in consumer demand [1] - From January to November, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increased by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The large-scale equipment update policy is showing significant effects, with companies increasingly willing to invest in equipment upgrades and renovations [3] - Equipment investment has grown rapidly, contributing to an overall increase in investments and enhancing corporate competitiveness [3] - From January to November, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 12.2% year-on-year, driving total investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1]