以下是一些受到密切关注的指标关于全球衰退风险的解读： 硬数据vs软数据 所谓的软经济数据（如情绪指标）与硬数据（如就业数据）之间的脱节，使人难以解读衰退风险。 全球衰退风险重新回到了市场的担忧清单上，但经济数据和关键金融指标的解读并不像最初看起来那么 明确。 美国总统特朗普4月宣布的大部分对等关税90天暂停期缓解了投资者最坏的担忧，但对商业和消费者信 心的损害预计将造成影响。 苏黎世保险集团首席市场策略师Guy Miller表示："即使就关税达成一些协议，衰退风险也显著上升。美 国经济衰退的风险是五五开，就是这么接近。" 硬数据，即最新的美国就业数据指向一个有韧性的经济，而美国第一季度经济萎缩和欧元区经济扩张都 被解释为企业在对等关税前提前布局。 同时，软数据，即商业和消费者信心指标有所恶化，一些人认为这预示着更弱的增长将很快显现。 美国消费者信心在4月暴跌至近五年低点。消费者支出是关键，因为它占美国经济活动的三分之二以 上。欧元区投资者信心指数在4月暴跌后有所回升，但仍处于负值区间。 MUFG高级经济学家Henry Cook表示："我们假设欧元区的任何收缩都将是短暂且相对温和的。" 苏黎世的Miller表示 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global recession risks have returned to market concerns, with mixed signals from economic data and financial indicators [1] - The likelihood of a U.S. recession is estimated at 50%, indicating a severe situation [1] - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, with economists acknowledging a higher risk of recession compared to three months ago [6] Group 2: Consumer and Investor Sentiment - U.S. consumer confidence fell to a near five-year low in April, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [1] - The Eurozone investor confidence index rebounded after a significant drop but remains in negative territory [1][2] Group 3: Commodity Market Signals - Oil prices have dropped approximately 16% this year, currently around $60 per barrel, signaling a slowdown in economic growth [6] - Copper prices, often seen as an economic indicator, have rebounded from near one-year lows but remain below March peaks [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Corporate Earnings - Stock markets have rebounded, with German stocks nearing historical highs and U.S. and Japanese stocks rising over 15% from last month's lows [13] - Despite strong first-quarter earnings, companies like Electrolux and Volvo have lowered their forecasts due to uncertainty, indicating potential challenges ahead [13][14] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Government bond markets reflect concerns over economic slowdown but do not indicate a significant rise in recession risks, as central banks are expected to act quickly with rate cuts [11] - Expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have been adjusted following the recent tariff pause [11]