1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on crude oil is to focus on short - term sentiment - driven positives and consider adding short positions on rallies. The market may open high and then decline, with short positions recommended to be held. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI are under significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks, testing 380 yuan per barrel. Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply features "regional differentiation + geopolitical disturbances". The demand is dominated by the Asia - Pacific region, showing significant regional disparities. The overall view is that the market may open high and then decline, with short - term sentiment - related upside and long - term downward pressure on prices [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The gold - to - oil ratio has strengthened again. Short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to "re - inflation" trading in the medium to long term. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [18][20][21]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The production of some countries has changed, such as the increase in production in Guyana and Brazil, and the potential impact of sanctions on the supply of Venezuela and Iran. The export volume of OPEC + core members reached a peak in September and declined in the fourth quarter. US shale oil drilling and production have stabilized [8][9][23]. 3.4 Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe have rebounded, and those of Chinese state - owned and private refineries have also increased. The global refining capacity has a net increase of 3.6 million barrels per day. The demand in China is shifting from fuel to chemical raw materials, and the demand in Europe is weak [10][63][65]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories remain significantly below the historical average. European diesel inventories have decreased, and gasoline inventories have increased. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from a high level, and global crude oil floating storage is high [67][71][73]. 3.6 Price and Spread - The spot market was weak during the holiday season. The Dubai spot spread entered a contango for the first time in two years. North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the valuation of SC is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [83][94][95].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - As of August 8, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices have decreased, while OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have increased in July [3][14]. - U.S. refinery utilization rates have risen, and the supply of finished gasoline and petroleum products has increased, while gasoline inventories have decreased month-over-month [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil imports have increased month-over-month, while exports have decreased; in contrast, China's crude oil imports have declined significantly, but exports have surged [2][44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down 2.99% month-over-month; WTI crude futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 4.04% [8][9]. - OPEC crude prices increased to $70.97 per barrel in July, up 1.78% month-over-month [14]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC crude oil production increased to 27,543 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.13% month-over-month [21]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production decreased slightly to 17.24 million barrels per day, down 0.06% month-over-month but up 1.71% year-over-year [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories rose to 1,670,549 thousand barrels, up 0.72% month-over-month [32]. - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased to 226,290 thousand barrels, down 2.82% month-over-month [32]. 4. Imports and Exports - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,214.25 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.61% month-over-month [44]. - China's crude oil imports fell to 4,720,000 tons, down 5.39% month-over-month, while exports increased significantly [44][48].

Group 1 - Niger's military government expelled three Chinese executives from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and froze their accounts, citing absurd reasons such as excessive electricity consumption and non-environmental dining practices [1][3] - The military government increased the oil revenue share from 15% to 30% and demanded a tax payment of 130 million, indicating a refusal to repay a $400 million loan [1][4] - The closure of the Zinder refinery led to a 70% drop in production capacity, resulting in a 90% national fuel shortage and black market fuel prices skyrocketing from $1.2 to $4 [3][4] Group 2 - The Kainji Dam project, which was hailed as Niger's largest renewable energy initiative, is at risk of being abandoned, potentially leading to a significant water supply crisis [4][6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a "Desert Shield" plan to ensure the safety of its workers and protect investments, indicating a serious concern over the situation [6][8] - The Nigerien Energy Minister expressed a desire to restart negotiations with China, but the terms still involve increased revenue sharing and tax collection, reflecting ongoing tensions [6][8]